Georgia approaches the final act. On March 27, the parliamentary leader of the ruling party, Georgian Dream, Mamuka Mdinaradze, announced the imminent tabling of legislation, referred to as the “successor parties law,” aimed at banning opposition groups that the ruling party deems “hostile”.
The legislation would prohibit political organizations whose leadership, activities, or objectives align with those of what he called the “collective UNM,” referring to the opposition party, United National Movement (UNM), and its allies. The UNM and the three other named parties and coalitions are the most popular anti-government groups.
In language underlining the seriousness of the stakes, and that the ruling party is unlikely to back down, it said the opposition groups are seen as “anti-Georgian, anti-constitutional, anti-national, and criminal.” The spears to have drawn at least some inspiration from events in Turkey where the government arrested the main opposition leader, causing nationwide protests.
Moreover, Georgian Dream also intends to petition the Constitutional Court to declare the UNM and associated parties as unconstitutional. The so-called “collective UNM” comprise four major opposition forces which are now expected to be barred from participating in future elections. It is by no means impossible that even harsher measures may follow, with some opposition leaders facing judicial persecution.
It is now clear that the ruling party’s pre-election statements were more than electoral fodder. Georgian Dream’s honorary chairman, the Kremlin-friendly billionaire and shark owner Bidzina Ivanishvili, stated in September that the “pseudo-liberal” opposition was a threat to the country’s safety and security. Plans were aired to ban the groups in August, foreshadowing the country’s effective withdrawal from its European Union (EU) candidature.
Yet the realization that this is happening is as yet barely believed in Georgia because it strips the ruling party of an old and reliable crutch. For years, it has made the argument “Either us or the UNM — those enemies of the state”. This familiar rallying call has brought four electoral wins in a row in the years since 2012 (albeit last year’s vote came with considerable suspicion of vote-rigging.)
The party clearly believes the time is now right to get serious about finishing off its old enemies. Parallel to the announcement, the Georgian parliament has organized a special investigative commission aiming to hold former UNM leaders accountable for the events of 2004-2012, including Russia’s 2008 invasion (which most Georgians and Western countries blame the Kremlin). A string of former officials, generals and even businessmen have been questioned on the events of that era.
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Its findings are likely to be used as the foundation for the regime’s appeal to the Constitutional Court to declare the UNM and related parties as unconstitutional. Moreover, the mandate of the commission will be extended to the period beyond 2012 and investigate the actions of opposition politicians allegedly engaged in “anti-state actions”.
The new commission is already targeting senior figures. The prosecutor’s office has launched investigations into the opposition leaders Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze, both leaders of the Lelo party, for refusing to appear before the commission — an offense punishable by up to a year behind bars.
It might be expected that opposition parties facing an imminent and likely mortal blow would agree to jointly resist and so pressure the ruling party. But in terms of leadership and financial resources, the anti-government parties are lacking. The post-October election street protests flared and then diminished. The demonstrations have continued but the gatherings are limited to Tbilisi’s center.
The international situation too favors Georgia’s ruling party. The US administration has yet to declare its approach toward the South Caucasus, and Georgia in particular, but it is clear that it will be very different from the Biden-era policy emphasizing human rights and promotion of democracy (although, in truth, the US has not focused much on the region for years).
Heavy-handed repression in neighboring Turkey also influences Georgian Dream’s behavior. The arrest of the Istanbul mayor, current president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most serious opponent, did not produce the usual chorus of rebukes from a united West — a perfect signal for the regime to go after its opposition.
Nor is the EU able to make much difference to events in Georgia. The Union has its own internal problems and has to grapple with its pressing defense needs amid the ongoing rapprochement between Russia and the US. It has little energy for Georgia.
Indeed, a thaw in relations with the EU, caused by the geopolitical circumstances, could be forthcoming — in the past few weeks, Georgian officials managed to hold meetings beyond their usual supporters in illiberal member states like Hungary and Slovakia.
It may be that the EU will decide to cut its losses and become more transactional in its approach toward Georgia. It is a time of new possibilities and engagement, some of which may look very surprising.
By writers at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), andFrancis Harris, Managing Editor at Europe’s Edge.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.* *CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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