Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Reddit Email Print
The Iranian regime’s Supreme Leader addresses his followers, referred to by the regime as the people of Qom – January 8, 2024
Three-minute read
As the clock ticks down on another U.S. administration, Tehran is playing a familiar game—stall in public, maneuver in private, and hope the West takes the bait. With the return of the “maximum pressure” policy, the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei slammed the door on direct talks. “Negotiation with America is neither smart nor honorable,” he declared in February 2025. And yet, within days, senior regime figures like FM Abbas Araghchi and Khamenei’s senior advisor Kamal Kharrazi floated the idea of indirect negotiations.
The contradiction isn’t confusion—it’s strategy. Khamenei is trying to avoid direct talks because he knows this time, the outcome won’t be a lopsided deal like 2015. Stripped of legitimacy at home, with proxy networks faltering abroad, any meaningful negotiation would mean exposing the regime’s total surrender. And that’s exactly what he’s trying to avoid.
Delay is the real goal. Just as it did in 2015, when Tehran dragged out talks until the final stretch of Barack Obama’s presidency, the regime is once again trying to run out the clock. The result of that last deal—the JCPOA—was billions in sanctions relief that never reached the Iranian people. Instead of investment in infrastructure or social programs, the funds fueled repression at home and proxy warfare abroad. Almost 2.5 years later, in December 2017, Iranians took to the streets in over 100 cities, chanting “Leave Syria, think of us” and “Death to the dictator.”
The Real Goal of #Iran’s Negotiations: Surviving, Not Settling https://t.co/TaSPUkGx6K
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 29, 2025
In the meantime, the regime wants just enough diplomatic smoke to keep international pressure at bay—buying time in the hopes that another pandemic, a global conflict, or a change in Western leadership might once again shift the balance in its favor. Araghchi and Kharrazi’s suggestions of indirect talks are not sincere; they’re a cover. The real work continues underground—at Fordow, Natanz, Arak, and more.
Tehran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear program has nothing to do with civilian energy needs. More than $2 trillion has been funneled into nuclear development over three decades. Yet, nuclear power supplies less than 2% of Iran’s electricity.
Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians endure rolling blackouts year after year. In the sweltering heat of summer, air conditioners shut down, hospitals switch to diesel generators, and families struggle to store food. In winter, freezing homes, closed schools, and stalled factories become the norm. This is not the profile of a country investing in energy security. It’s the toll of a regime that prioritizes bomb-making over basic services.
Fact-Checking Khamenei’s Nowruz Speech in #Iran Reveals Economic Crisis and Veiled Response to U.S.https://t.co/qfizpBV2bv
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 23, 2025
Meanwhile, 90% of Iran’s territory is sun-drenched and ideal for solar energy. Up to 1.48 million square kilometers could host solar farms. Wind power potential is similarly vast, particularly in the east and northwest. Iran could harness up to 100,000 MW in wind capacity. But these clean, viable paths are ignored.
Why? Because the nuclear program isn’t about power grids. It’s about regime survival.
Khamenei has spent years warning against “repeating Gaddafi’s mistake.” In 2003, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya agreed to dismantle his WMD programs. In return, sanctions were lifted, and Libya rejoined the international fold. Eight years later, NATO-backed rebels toppled him. Khamenei took note. MOIS-run Mehr News recently reminded readers that “Gaddafi’s trust in the U.S. turned Libya into rubble.”
That’s why Tehran won’t compromise. Not unless it’s forced.
So far, Western policy has alternated between misguided appeasement and toothless warnings. But the time for half-measures is over. The regime’s nuclear deception is not a diplomatic puzzle—it’s a threat to international peace.
Khamenei’s Survival at Stake in #Iran—Refuses Talks, Doubles Down on Hostilityhttps://t.co/2QEJdEgIXI
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 13, 2025
It’s time to act. The snapback mechanism under Resolution 2231 must be activated, restoring key sanctions under Resolutions 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929. Tehran must be held accountable under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.
No diplomatic normalization should proceed unless the regime:
Ends uranium enrichment and weaponization efforts.
Withdraws from regional conflicts and disbands its proxy networks.
Halts domestic repression and opens the country to human rights inspections.
Khamenei may think he can wait out the world. But as history shows, pressure—not persuasion—is the only language the regime understands.