At this point, the Portland Trail Blazers will need a minor miracle to earn a Western Conference play-in berth.
In the end, their failure to close the deal will be attributed to several issues. Namely, injuries, especially to Deandre Ayton, and an inability to slow down the offenses of quality teams.
That trend continued during Thursday night’s 128-107 loss at the Sacramento Kings, which pushed the Blazers (32-42) to four games back of the 10th-place Dallas Mavericks (36-38) with eight games remaining.
Blazers coach Chauncey Billups pointed out after Thursday night’s loss that his team’s defense has been up and down against elite teams. That’s putting it lightly.
The Blazers won 10 of 11 games from Jan. 19 through Feb. 6 to climb back into the play-in discussion. During that stretch, the Blazers had the top-rated defense in the NBA.
Since, the Blazers are 9-13 with just two victories over winning teams. Those came recently against Denver, playing without Nikola Jokic, and Memphis without Ja Morant.
On those nights, the Blazers played high-level defense, winning 128-109 over the Nuggets and 115-99 over the Grizzlies.
Trail Blazers Kings Basketball
Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups walks on the court during a timeout in the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Sacramento Kings, Thursday, March 27, 2025, in Sacramento, Calif. (AP Photo/Sara Nevis) APAP
However, in the Blazers’ 12 losses leading up to Thursday, they allowed 123.7 points per game.
The Kings (36-37) fell from the ranks of being a winning team after losing eight of 10 before hosting the Blazers. Still, Sacramento dropped 128 on Portland while shooting 64.9% from the field. The Kings outscored the Blazers 60-32 in the paint.
In the Blazers’ seven victories against losing teams, they allowed just 103.4 points per game.
But that was against some of the worst teams in the NBA. Defeating Charlotte (18-54), Utah (16-58), Washington (16-57) twice, Brooklyn (23-50), Philadelphia (23-50) and Toronto (26-47) helped keep the Blazers in the play-in hunt, but didn’t instill confidence that they could finish the job.
The loss at the Kings started a five-game trip that continues Sunday at the New York Knicks (45-27), then Tuesday at the Atlanta Hawks (35-38).
It’s almost inconceivable to believe the Blazers will make up four games with eight remaining.
As for the NBA draft lottery, the Blazers have the ninth-worst record, just ahead of San Antonio (31-41) in the win column.
The Raptors sit at seventh worst, 5½ games behind the Blazers.
The Blazers’ most realistic outcome is to fall to the eighth-worst record, which has a 6% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 26.3% chance of getting into the top four.
The team with the ninth-worst record will have a 4.5% chance at picking No. 1 and a 20.3% chance of selecting in the top four.
-- Aaron Fentress | afentress@Oregonian.com | @AaronJFentress (Twitter), @AaronJFentress (Instagram), @AaronFentress (Facebook)