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Aftermath of bonfires and barricades in the streets of Iran during the 2022 uprising — December 2022
Two-minute read
As Iran faces intensifying economic and social crises, regime officials and insiders are increasingly sounding the alarm about the potential for a nationwide uprising. Mounting frustrations over dire economic conditions, widespread poverty, and systemic corruption have prompted fears of a social explosion, with warnings now coming from within the clerical regime itself.
During a recent interview, Mohammad Mannan Raisi, a member of Iran’s Parliament, openly expressed his concerns about the volatile situation. Highlighting the regime’s inability to address the economic crisis, Raeisi warned, “If the government doesn’t act quickly to correct its economic policies, the streets could become chaotic. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I advise the people not to go down this path. What’s the point of setting fires and pouring into the streets? It has happened ten times in the past fifty years—1988, 2009, 2022—and the result is the same. They rebuild the same banks, the same offices, the same buildings, using taxes they take from us.”
Raisi’s remarks echo broader concerns expressed by other regime insiders. Former head of the Budget and Planning Organization, Masoud Rougni Zanjani, admitted the deepening rift between the state and society, acknowledging that the public no longer accepts the regime’s legitimacy. “In the past, people would somewhat accept the authority of the government. Now, they don’t. They think all of their suffering and pressure comes from the state itself,” Zanjani said.
Watch and judge why this insider is warning that the regime is destined for a collapse or #IranRevolution pic.twitter.com/Ysu6LbOhnz
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 1, 2024
Economist Vahid Shaghaghi, speaking to the state-affiliated Entekhab, painted a grim picture of the nation’s economic trajectory. “Maximum pressure will increase from next year onward. We can no longer plan based on optimistic or even moderate scenarios. We have to consider the worst-case scenarios with a pessimistic approach,” Shaghaghi stated. According to him, Iran’s economic imbalance is catastrophic, requiring at least $500 billion to stabilize, while the country’s GDP is only $400 billion. “The state is practically collapsing in terms of structure and cohesion,” he warned.
Another regime-affiliated economist, Hossein Doroudian, echoed these concerns in the same program, admitting that the Iranian economy remains paralyzed by severe structural flaws and warning of a potential social backlash. “The most important issue facing Iran in 2025 is whether or not we can continue to export oil under Trump’s administration. But beyond that, the fundamental crisis is that social unrest and economic turmoil are intertwined. We are a country where every few years, protests and uprisings break out. If something like that happens again, it could have devastating effects on all aspects of economic and non-economic affairs.”
Watch and judge how this insider is warning that #IranRevolution is at the regime's doorsteps. pic.twitter.com/C8ywVnrVJN
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 3, 2023
Peyman Molavi, another regime economist, also emphasized Iran’s dismal global standing, pointing out that Iran now ranks 160th out of 165 countries economically. He expressed a dim outlook for 2025, stating, “This year, we can no longer hope to resolve economic problems solely through economic measures.”
These warnings come amid a broader acknowledgment that the Iranian regime is facing an unprecedented convergence of crises: crippling economic hardship, international isolation, and a deeply alienated public. As regime officials issue increasingly dire warnings about social unrest, the likelihood of another nationwide uprising continues to loom large.