Pole position in the race to be crowned champions of Spain this season has changed hands between FC Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid on several occasions and as we enter the last segment of the campaign, the question of who will come out on top is still unclear.
The standings will tell you Barcelona are in the clear and Atlético have dropped out of the race but that may change with some added context of the remaining – and potential – fixtures, injuries, the simple factor of Diego Simeone and a tantalising Clásico on the horizon. All things considered, nothing is decided just yet – and as they say in Spain, ¡hay Liga!
The state of play
The last international break of the season is over and the players have come back from their national teams, though not all at the same time. Players of Barcelona and Osasuna had to return early to play the fixture that was postponed from March 8 due to the tragic passing of club doctor, Carles Miñarro García.
Despite missing their captain, Raphinha, and the rescheduling having its controversy, Barcelona strolled to a 3-0 win with relative ease. They now sit in first place on 63 points having played 28 games with a goal difference of +51.
While a trailblazing start to the season with 11 wins from 12 was derailed by a stuttering November and December, they have now won eight games in a row and in the full context of the season, they have been a contender for the best team in Europe. However, you are never safe with Real Madrid and Atlético chasing you.
Los Blancos sit in second place with 60 points after 28 games but have a weaker goal difference of +32. Carlo Ancelotti’s team haven’t looked the most convincing considering their star-studded lineups, but injuries have hit their squad for six with multiple long-term absentees.
PHOTO: Real Madrid CF
Now that Kylian Mbappé is over his early season slump and in ‘Pichichi’ form with 20 league goals, though, they will always have a threat. Nevertheless, all caveats have been made and they are still on Barça’s heels. That’s the Real Madrid way.
Atlético Madrid are slightly further down on 56 points after 28 games and a +24 goal difference. Defensively resolute, aggressive in midfield battles and cunning attack line, El Cholo’s side hasn’t changed much in the past decade. You’d only have to go back a month or so to see Atléti in a fantastic position, but reality hit quickly.
They have lost their last four games in all competitions and have been knocked out of the UEFA Champions League by their fierce neighbours, Real Madrid. The knock of confidence and physical endurance from that game rolled onto their league game against Barça as they bottled a two-goal lead to lose 4-2, conceding significant ground on the title going into the international break. That said, fewer games to deal with and a favourable fixture list does not rule them out.
It is worth mentioning Athletic Club are in fourth place with 52 points. Their fantastic season should merit a UEFA Champions League spot, but a title race may be a step too far. Ernesto Valverde has done a fantastic job and a possible Europa League final at their home stadium, San Mamés, could make for a thrilling story.
What’s next?
All three teams are playing in what should be straightforward games against bottom half opposition this weekend, but the following midweek fixtures will see them all contest the second legs of their respective Copa del Rey semi-finals. What is certain is that one will be knocked out, as Barça and Atlético play each other in a tie that sits at 4-4 after an exhilarating first leg.
Los Blancos are 1-0 up in their tie against Real Sociedad and though they are at home in the second leg, this competition is the txuri-urdin’s last chance for European football next season, so there will be no shortage of motivation for the visitors.
Barcelona and Real Madrid both have 13 games left this season, with potential for that number to rise to 16 depending on their European success. There is a scenario in which they both meet in Munich in the Champions League final, which would create an incredibly enticing narrative.
Atléti, by contrast, have just 11 games left, with only a potential domestic cup final able to increase that figure.
Barcelona face tough task
Arguably, Barca have the hardest league fixtures left as they play six teams from the current top half. Six of their remaining 10 league games are at their temporary Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys home, where they haven’t been the strongest with the 5th-best home record in LaLiga this season.
They’ll also face Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, however the German team are the weakest team left in the competition and the Blaugrana shouldn’t have a problem getting past them.
PHOTO: German Parga – FC Barcelona
With any title run-in, keeping your squad fit plays an integral part as fixture congestion can decimate the fullest of squads. It wouldn’t be the first time Barcelona have overplayed a young player, but Lamine Yamal played another full 90 minutes against Osasuna after a solid two-hour stint for Spain against the Netherlands last Sunday. He has become undroppable for club and country but as was the case for Gavi and Pedri, young players aren’t always as durable as they think.
Dani Olmo is now out for three weeks after coming off against Osasuna and Marc Casado will be injured for two months with a knee injury, so it’s fair to say that Barça have many factors working against them, making it an even more impressive title – if they were to win it.
Of the three contenders, they are the ones playing with the most confidence and fluidity so based on the eye test and stats, it’s hard to look past them as the favourites.
Real Madrid praying on Barça slip-up
Real Madrid have a more favourable run-in with the majority of their league games being at home whilst boasting the best home record in the league. They also play half of their remaining 10 league fixtures against teams in the current top half. There is nothing out of the ordinary about their run-in, but facing Arsenal in the Champions League will prove to be a stubborn challenge.
Now that the Premier League is nearly a closed case with Liverpool as champions, the Gunners will focus on their last chance of silverware and Mikel Arteta’s resilient style should suit knockout style competitions. That being said, Real Madrid’s dominance in the Champions League is a tale as old as time.
PHOTO: Antonio Villalba / Real Madrid CF
Other than the season-ending injuries to Dani Carvajal and Eder Militão, Dani Ceballos and Ferland Mendy are out for the short-term. Not having an elaborate and clear playstyle like Barça won’t bother los Blancos when they have players who can change the result of a match regardless of the game-state including Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Jr and Thibaut Courtois to bail them out. Ancelotti’s confidence in his players to figure it out may be the only tactic they need.
Regardless of Madrid’s starpower, they need Barça to drop points and their Clásico meeting on May 11 could prove pivotal. They want to avoid the embarrassing 4-0 defeat that they suffered in October’s reverse fixture, but the big occasion is usually when they turn up. Though they are a step behind, it would not surprise anyone if Real Madrid pull their socks up and grind Barça down.
Atléti ready to pick up the pieces
The underdogs, as always. That’s the way it’s been with Simeone and his plucky Rojiblancos, but having had heavy summer investment, it may be more damning than usual to not win a trophy this season. Their fixture list also gives them a glimmer of hope with no European competition left. Out of their remaining 10 league games, they only play three teams in the current top half and no teams in the top five, so there is no excuse to not pick up almost all of the 30 points on offer. By doing this, they could wait in the shadows for Real Madrid or Barça to slip up and grab the league title for themselves.
That is easier said than done, of course, but there is not doubt el Cholo will be telling his players the exact same. It is hard to see this become a reality but football has seen greater comebacks and with a fully fit squad, they will be ready for any bumps in the road.