Arsenal start the run in with a tough London Derby
Arsenal comes out of the international break with a tricky test from a team that includes several familiar faces.
Fulham have been a thorn in Arsenal’s side lately, having gone winless in their last three matches and with two wins over the previous five played since they were last promoted.
Arsenal under Mikel Arteta loves a good revenge motivation, and they will have plenty of things to look to make right in this match.
Fulham Performance
Marco Silva’s Fulham have turned themselves into a tough team to beat this season, ranking 5th for the fewest losses, and with a bit better sequencing of goal scoring or some positive variance, they could have been a team that was having the Nottingham Forest season.
Performance in the Premier League over the current season, both for attack and defense
The rank pretty solidly midtable in the metrics so far this season, ranking 8th in xG difference and 10th in goal difference. The attacking numbers are not that great but they have paired it with a stingy defense that has allowed the third fewest expected goals and eighth fewest goals.
Premier League stats, using a combination of Goals and expected goals. Research has suggested that the 30% and 70% weighting gives the best information on a team’s overall level of performance
Overall, this season, my team ratings put them 8th overall, with the 13th-rated attack and the 3rd-rated defense. For an Arsenal team that has struggled to create chances, this is not the ideal matchup, but it could be a good indicator that maybe the worst of the attacking struggles are behind the team if they are able to create openings here.
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Fulham Form
Fulham have 3 wins in their last 5 but even with 9 points from these matches they haven’t lit the world on fire. They have 7 goals against 6 allowed, from 5.9 xG against 5.2 xG allowed.
They have an impressive win against Nottingham Forest but the other matches were bad losses (Crystal Palace dominated them) or close matches that could have gone either way.
Style Comparison
Fulham, under manager Marco Silva, have continued to refine their approach in their third consecutive Premier League season. This year, they’ve leaned into a balanced, possession-based system that emphasizes quick transitions when they present themselves and width in attack while maintaining a solid defensive structure. Their style blends disciplined defending with dynamic attacking play
Fulham prioritizes width, using their full-backs and wingers to stretch opposition defenses. They favor quick, incisive passing to move the ball into dangerous areas, often culminating in crosses or cutbacks for their forwards. They are third in the League for the number of entries into the box that come from crosses.
One of the main threats is the American Antonee Robinson who has become one of the top left-backs in the League.
Their attacking play has been bolstered by improved creativity in midfield, allowing them to break down compact defenses more effectively than in previous seasons. They are also a team that loves to use beating a man to generate an opening for their next move.
Out of possession, they are stronger and it is the basis that has kept them on the edge of the hunt for a European spot this season. Silva has instilled a compact, organized backline that presses high when needed but is more comfortable allowing a team the ball in their own third before looking to disrupt things from their mid or low block.
Keys to the game
If I were looking at what Arsenal need to do in this match to tilt it in their favor I would focus on these items
PIN THEM BACK. Fulham this season have struggled in matches where they have had the game played in their defensive third/the opposition’s attacking third. They are comfortable in a low block but they are not a team that wants to spend the entire game defending that way, preferring to have their share of possession and keeping the line of engagement further out. Arsenal will want to come with their press suffocating and cutting off lanes in this match, forcing them into long balls where Arsenal can win the second balls and launch another wave of attack.
GET OUT ON THE WIDE PLAYERS. In attack, Fulham want to get it wide and look to play the ball into the box towards Jimenez. He is their focal point and he loves challenging for the balls that Robinson, Adama Traore, and Alex Iwobi will whip in for him.
TEST BERND LENO. Leno has not had the strongest year, especially on shots from distance. This is a match where Arsenal need to be willing to pull the trigger and test the keeper vs always trying to work for an even better shot. Arsenal’s players have not had the greatest ball striking season but maybe this is a match where they can get back a bit of confidence knowing that there is a bit better chance than normal on the shots turning into goals where they may not need to be perfect.
My model and the betting odds are not really in line on this one. I have Arsenal favorites here at 61.5% but the betting odds REALLY like Arsenal here with the line implying Arsenal win nearly 70% of the time. This is one of the bigger divergences that I have seen in quite a while between my model and the betting odds.
It can be a little screwy coming out of an international break and this is a really big match for Fulham while Arsenal could be focused a bit more on the Champions League coming up. It isn’t quite trap game territory because there is one more match between but there is a difference in motivation here potentially between the teams.
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