The diplomatic marathon in Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton lumbers into its fifth day, a tedious spectacle of US-Russia haggling over a Black Sea ceasefire that’s proving as solid and transparent as Black Sea mud.
Since March 24, the scorecard reads three US-Ukraine huddles, two formal US-Russia sessions, and a handful of backroom chats – yet the breakthroughs remain elusive.
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Washington’s PR machine churns out glowing soundbites about “progress” and “frameworks,” but the results are middling at best, while Russia’s relentless violations of the so-called ‘30-day ceasefire’ expose the talks for what they are: a Kremlin stalling tactic dressed up as diplomacy.
The negotiations, sparked by Trump’s March 20 calls with Zelensky and Putin, were meant to halt hostilities and secure maritime corridors. Russia, desperate to shield its oil refineries from Ukraine’s pinpoint drone strikes, pushed for a suspension of attacks on energy infrastructure. But even this was a sham. Moscow needs refineries to produce the oil sales that fund its killing machine. Ukraine’s precision stokes are hurting – and the Kremlin’s feeling the pinch.
In exchange, Moscow dangled a flimsy pledge to ease off energy targets-- but instead, it’s doubled down on carnage – hitting the Ukrainian energy grid with impunity – while loudly squawking that Ukraine’s precision attacks on the Russian energy sector are ‘terrorism’.
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As talks began, Russia returned to its true forte – targeting civilians. On March 24, a missile ripped through an apartment complex in Sumy, wounding 88 – including 17 children. The attack was a typical Russian trifecta – it also leveled homes, a school, and, of course, a hospital.
As the Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton charade flounders on, Russian drone swarms claimed at least seven lives across the Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions, again, with apartment blocks reduced to smoking craters. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha’s retort cuts through the fog: “Russia negotiates with one hand and bombs with the other.”
Washington’s optimism feels increasingly hollow. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz’s Sunday pledge of “verification measures” and “frozen lines” now sounds like a pipe dream, while envoy Steve Witkoff’s talk of a Black Sea deal “gravitating” to a full ceasefire actually reeks of desperately wishful thinking.
Trump’s praise for Putin’s “engagement” clashes with reality: Russia’s maximalist demands – Ukraine ditching NATO, ceding four regions, disarming and holding Russian supervised “elections” – are a road map to subjugation. Kremlin negotiator Grigory Karasin calls the talks “constructive,” but his boss’s actions speak louder – literally, in the form of explosions over Ukrainian cities.
Russia’s cynicism hit a new low this week with its call for a UN Security Council meeting to decry Ukrainian “disinformation” and “terrorism.” This, while Moscow executes Ukrainian POWs, deploys banned chemical munitions, and flattens apartment buildings with impunity.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov insists Russia’s honoring its end of the ceasefire, a claim as credible as a three-ruble note as Ukrainian civilian casualties pile up daily. Yesterday’s strike in Kharkiv, killing a family of four in their sleep, underscores the gall of Moscow’s UN stunt – a masterclass in projection and victim blaming from a regime allergic to accountability.
Washington wants a deal, any deal; Moscow wants a break in the fighting to lick its wounds, and Kyiv is left holding the bag, fighting an enemy who seems to have too many friends in Washington.
Behind the upbeat briefings, frustration is mounting as the US grasps Putin’s true play: he’s not here for peace, but to buy time. A ceasefire, even a paper-thin one, would let Russia restock its arsenals, shore up battered units, and gear up for a renewed assault – likely a spring push to reclaim lost turf.
Ukraine’s leadership, wise to the Kremlin’s tricks, isn’t swallowing the bait. Zelensky’s team demands weapons and sanctions, not fairy tales of Russian goodwill. When the penny drops, expect Trump’s team to pivot from lauding Putin’s “engagement” to lambasting his deceit, though whether that sparks real action – or just more hot air – remains unclear.
As Riyadh’s talks limp on, one truth stands out: Ukraine’s future hinges not on vaporous Kremlin promises or diplomatic mirages, but on cold, hard realities. Russia has violated very written pledge it has made for Ukrainian security, from the Minsk agreements to the Budapest memorandum.
Peace, security, and economic recovery depend on geopolitical stability and a robust Ukrainian military, backed by its European and NATO allies. Russia’s war has proven that strength, not handshakes, dictates survival. Kyiv knows it, even if Washington’s still catching up.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.