Scientists tell The i Paper of their concerns that the new LP variants could be fuelling a new wave of Covid
Covid hospitalisations have risen by nearly a fifth in a week, raising concerns that the new dominant LP.8.1 variant may be driving a new wave of the virus.
The number of people admitted to hospital with Covid jumped by 19 per cent in England to 1.46 people per 100,000 of the population in the week to 23 March, according to the latest figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
This is the highest level since early January, although admissions are only a third of the level seen last October.
The UKHSA data also showed the proportion of hospital patients in England testing positive for Covid increased by 6 per cent in the same week (23 March) – as the ‘positivity rate’ rose from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent.
This follows a 6 per cent rise the previous week, meaning the positivity rate has risen by 12 per cent in two weeks.
Despite the figures, scientists caution against reading too much into a week or two’s figures – while the current positivity rate is still just a quarter of the level last October and has been at relatively low levels for four months.
“It’s difficult to say for absolute certain that we are about to experience yet another wave of Covid infections here in the UK, but the portents are certainly there,” Professor Steve Griffin of Leeds University told The i Paper.
“Whilst the numbers and increases are comparatively small, this is expected at the beginning of [a new wave].”
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, added: “Last week’s data is an early warning alert that covid is still lurking and on the rise.”
“This increase in infections and hospitalisations is most likely driven by yet another Covid variant (LP.8.1), which is spreading rapidly in Asia and North America,” he said.
Scientists point out that positivity rates are much higher than the infection rate in the general population because only people with symptoms are being tested.
And they say it can’t be taken as a precise estimate for the level of Covid in the general population because it is only based on hospital patients.
However, they say these “positivity rate” figures are a good indicator of trends for the virus more generally across the UK.
Dr Alex Allen, Consultant Epidemiologist at UKHSA, highlighted the rise with the latest data release.
“We are now seeing small increases in Covid-19 heading into spring. We would encourage all those eligible for the upcoming spring Covid vaccination to ensure they take up the offer to top up their immunity for the coming months,” he said.
The rise in Covid hospitalisations and infection rates has coincided with the rise of new dominant variants – known as the LP variants.
However, scientists said it was too early to say whether we would see a fresh wave of the virus and, if so, whether that is being driven by the LP variants or other factors, such as waning immunity built up by vaccines and prior infections.
Spring booster campaign
Booking for the spring 2025 booster campaign, which will run from April 1 to June 17, 2025, will begin on Tuesday.
Those eligible will be:
adults aged 75 years and over;
residents in a care home for older adults; and
individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed.
GPs will contact those who are eligible to invite them to sign up for a spring booster. You can also book through the national booking system (which goes live on Tuesday) at this website:
Or using the NHS app for Apple or Android.
And you can find your nearest walk-in vaccination site on the NHS website.
Around 9.8 million people in England, out of the estimated 20 million who were eligible, had a Covid jab in the 2024 autumn booster campaign.
The uptake among under-65s with weakened immune systems was particularly low with around 22 per cent of those eligible in England taking up the offer of a free jab.
Professor Young added: “While difficult to conclude too much from these data about a possible wave of infection, it does show that Covid has not settled into a seasonal pattern of infection.”
He points out that “recent laboratory data indicates that the LP.8.1 variant is more infectious than previously circulating variants” while it is also slightly better at getting round immunity the body has built up.
But because the LP variants are derived from JN.1, a previous dominant variant, they share largely similar characteristics. This means that past infections together with the current, updated, vaccines “should provide protection from severe disease,” he says.
What is clear, however, is that the variants – known as LP.8.1 and LP.8.1.1 are more infectious and are accounting for an increasing share of Covid infections, becoming the dominant variants in recent weeks.
Together, these variants account for about a third of of England’s Covid infections – making them the most common variants in the country, according to the latest UKHSA figures.
Professor Griffin added: “We’ve just had an unusual winter compared with the past four years in that a large wave of Covid did not occur.
“However, this has now changed as the LP.8.1 and LP.8.1.1 have become dominant. At the same time, protection against infection conferred by previous infection and/or vaccines will now be waning”
He points out that Covid’s “own evolution is the primary driver dictating when a wave will occur. This is unlike seasonal respiratory infections like seasonal flu and RSV”.
LP8.1 – a descendant from JN1 (the dominant variant in the UK this time last year) – was first recorded in California in July last year and has since been detected in more than 23 countries around the world.
It is not thought to be any more severe than the other main variants circulating at the moment, while early research suggests current vaccines are similarly effective against LP8.1 as they are against the previous dominant strain, XEC.
However, preliminary research indicates the LP variants are more infectious than XEC, which is why its spreading faster.