Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst remains unpredictable in the first round of the NFL Draft. He has traded up to try to grab players he really wanted, and he has traded back to get more picks. Once he even did both in the first round of the same draft back in 2018. He has also held on to the pick and made his selection. But what should the Packers do in this draft?
Obviously, any decision made in the draft depends on how the board breaks down. That is something we won’t fully know until the draft actually starts to unfold. But there are some factors that could influence Gutekunst’s decision making this year.
One factor remains that for the first time in the history of the franchise, the Packers are hosting this year’s NFL Draft. There will be a lot of Packers fans in attendance, and they are all expecting something big from the team. If the Packers trade out of the first round, that will certainly take some of the excitement out of the crowd.
One possible exception would be if the Packers traded their first-round pick for a star player. For example, if Green Bay acquired defensive end Trey Hendrickson at the draft and made the announcement at the draft, most fans would be excited. In fact, it would likely be a bigger event than if the team just made its selection with the 23rd overall pick.
Gutekunst has said he won’t let the fact that the Packers are hosting draft change his approach to making picks and trades, but I can’t imagine it would not be a factor in the timing of an announcement if a trade is made.
Another factor will be the number of picks. Green Bay has just eight selections in this year’s draft. In recent years, they’ve had more due to compensatory picks and the trades involving Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. If Gutekunst wants to acquire more picks, he will either have to trade back in the draft or acquire picks in a deal for a player like Jaire Alexander who very well could be dealt at the draft.
The bigger key, however, will be getting the best value for the Packers picks and the ability to fill the team’s needs. Where the depth of the draft lies will also play a factor.
Many experts feel there are roughly 15 players with solid first round grades in this draft. Of course, there are 32 picks in the opening round. The next group of relatively evenly rated players lies between 16 and roughly 50. That means getting two second round picks could be better value than one late first round pick.
This draft is not particularly deep at wide receiver. Would the Packers try to trade up and grab one of the few elite receivers? If so, they likely would need to trade up and grab one. Gutekunst won’t select one if he doesn’t feel that player would be better than the wideouts he already has on the roster.
The Packers haven’t drafted a wide receiver in the first round since 2002, although Gutekunst has said he is not averse to selecting one and has tried to move up for a wideout as recently as 2020.
If teams want an elite pass rusher, they generally need to find that player in the first round. But if there are no elite receivers, pass rushers, or cornerbacks available at 23, would it make more sense to trade back and get additional picks in day two or even a high pick in next year’s draft?
Gutekunst has done a good job of finding quality offensive linemen on day three of the draft. Both starting tackles, Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom, were added on day three. There is sufficient depth at offensive tackle in this draft that the Packers may be able to wait for the later rounds of the draft to add one.
I believe Gutekunst will trade back in this draft to add more picks. It may not happen in round one, but rest assured the Packers are likely to add more than eight players in this year’s draft before it’s over. As for round one, we’ll have to see how the picks play out and who’s available before Gutekunst makes his move.
One thing is for certain, things won’t be dull in Green Bay during the NFL Draft.
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You can follow Gil Martin on Twitter @GilPackers
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