Portland Trail Blazers Scoot Henderson has enjoyed an improved second half of the season, cutting down on errors and lifting his efficiency. In late December, I wrote about the sophomore, questioning whether he could serve as an above-average starting point guard.
The take was informed by the 21-year-old’s rookie season and the lack of progress made through the early part of his sophomore campaign. To some it might have been a tough evaluation but when you’re selected third behind Victor Wembanyama and Brandon Miller, expectation was inescapable.
A week after that piece went live, Henderson started turning things around, playing consistent basketball and contributing on more nights than not. Still not meeting that draft expectation but enough to prove he can be, at the very least, a serviceable point guard.
Today, we ask whether Henderson has shown enough to walk into the Blazers’ starting point guard role in October this year. The Blazers will, no doubt, make changes to the roster this summer but the question addresses whether he deserves it based on recent form.
Henderson’s improvement
Henderson has joined the starting unit 10 of 66 times this season while still averaging a starter-level 26.7 minutes a game. Though some may argue he should have been a staple in the starting unit, he’s yet to prove he can outplay the more experienced Anfernee Simons.
As mentioned, the start of the season was rough.
Through his first 25 games this season, Henderson put up 11.3 points on 30.3 percent from three, 39.8 percent from the field, 5.1 assists and 2.8 boards in 25.8 minutes. The numbers and the eye test were dismal for the point guard who looked lost and un-impactful, missing shots and making poor decisions with the ball in his hands.
A switch was flipped over the New Years period with Henderson turning things around, looking more competent and confident through early January. Over the past 35 games, from January 14, Henderson has averaged 14.2 points on 38.4 percent from three, 43.4 percent from the field, 5.2 assists and 3.1 boards in 27.5 minutes.
The decision making was exponentially better, not to mention the paint navigation and three pointing shooting. The result in the uptick is trust. Trust from Billups, trust from his teammates and trust in himself. While Henderson has never lacked for confidence, he’s looked more comfortable on the court this calendar year.
But there are still concerns. Henderson has failed to excel in a particular area. Among the 50 players considered point guards by Cleaning the Glass, he ranks 27th in assist rate, 35th in points per shot attempt, 36th in effective field goal percentage. He’s 28th in three point percentage, 36th in two-point percentage, 43rd in free throw shooting, 39th at the rim and 31st in steals.
While his passing looks elite, it’s not translating in the box score. My concern is that Henderson’s ceiling is still an average point guard. But this is fine if the Blazers are able to surround him with above-average talent, i.e. Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe.
Anfernee Simons
In July, Simons’ remaining $27.7 million becomes expiring, which means General Manager Joe Cronin and the front office need to make a call.
Either trade him or extend him. Letting the situation wait until the 2026 NBA Trade Deadline would be a massive mistake. If they wait, they face the real possibility of getting less in return as well as the obvious injury risk.
If Simons is still on the roster on opening night, he starts. He’s still the better player and if the Blazers hope to get the best return for him, regardless of whether its the short or long-term, he needs to start.
Ultimately, it’s unlikely Simons is on the roster next season. In fact, there’s every chance he’s played one of his last games for the franchise with the Blazers’ Play-In hopes diminishing by the day.
The luck of the draft lottery
The Blazers are now four games out of tenth spot in the Western Conference and with eight games left look destined for another year attending the NBA Draft Lottery. If the Blazers luck out and score the second pick, then you take Dylan Harper. No ifs, ands or buts, the Blazers need to pick the best player available in what has widely been regarded a stacked draft class.
The son of former five-time NBA champion Ron, Harper is a big-bodied guard with the physical gifts to compete on both sides of the ball. He has an ability to control games as a both a scorer and playmaker and, right now, is a no-brainer upgrade on Henderson.
The Blazers currently hold the league’s ninth worst record, a position that gives them a 4.8 percent chance at the second pick. If they manage to snag the eighth worst record that chance improves to 6.3 percent. Not encouraging odds, but also not unrealistic.
If it happens, Henderson is almost certainly moved. The earlier the better in this case as I’ve little doubt about the still-young point guard’s attractiveness to other franchises.
The coaching situation
We also need to consider the Blazers coaching situation. Chauncey Billups will be a free agent this summer unless his option is picked up. While the situation is far from certain, I’m not sure a change of coach will have an impact on Henderson.
If the front office sees him as the answer at point guard moving forward, a new coach would surely need to incorporate this into his or her game plan.
So is Scoot Portland’s starting point guard next season?
The short answer is “probably”, but there are variables to consider here. Chiefly, will be the NBA Draft Lottery. If the Blazer land the number two pick, Harper is a Blazer and Henderson is playing elsewhere.
If Anfernee Simons is still on the roster without an extension signed, I can definitely see him starting over Henderson, at least in the short term. But even in this case, I’d find it hard to see Simons remaining a Blazer beyond the 2026 deadline unless an extension is worked out.
Unless one of these outlier possibilities becomes reality, Henderson ends up serving as the Blazers starting point guard moving forward. But the fact that there’s doubt over how impactful he can be, gives me pause.
His improvement has been enjoyable, but unless he can establish one or two elite skills, he’s probably still serving as a fourth or fifth offensive option on a good team.