7 images of a tornado from thin funnel cloud to ground-touching tornado surrounded by debris and dust.
Swaths of the U.S. are under a severe weather risk for March 30 and 31, 2025, with thunderstorms and tornadoes anticipated. This composite shows the evolution of a tornado. Image via Jason Weingart/ Wikimedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).
According to the NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, more than 100 million people in east-central and mid-southern U.S. states face a risk of severe weather today, March 30, 2025. The organization announced yesterday:
A widespread/ substantial severe weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/ Mid and Lower Mississippi/ Lower Missouri/ Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected.
Cities including Indianapolis, Indiana; St. Louis, Missouri; Nashville, Tennessee and Little Rock, Arkansas face what the Storm Prediction Center calls an enhanced risk, the third of five risk levels. That means widespread or persistent storms are expected, along with numerous severe storms, which are those capable of producing inch-sized hail, wind gusts of 58 miles per hour, or tornadoes.
This area also faces the possibility of significant severe weather. This is when a storm is capable of producing hail of at least 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 75 miles per hour, or a tornado that produces damage that ranks at least 2 on the Enhanced Fujita scale.
Severe weather forecast map shows concentric circles of decreasing risk centered on east-central us states.
This is the severe weather outlook for Sunday, March 30. Chart via the Storm Prediction Center.
When will the storms impact me?
Storm timing will vary depending on where you live. The first of two potential waves of thunderstorms is expected early Sunday morning for the western side of the at-risk areas. The line of severe storms could develop as early as late morning or early afternoon, before moving east through the afternoon into the evening. For more specific timing of when storms will impact you, visit the National Weather Service website and enter your location in the top left.
The at-risk areas could also see thunderstorms today. Image via Sebastian V./ Pexels.
What’s causing the severe weather?
A strong low pressure system with an associated cold front is moving across the middle of the United States. Cold air on its northern side is producing snow and freezing rain for South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, on the southern side of the low pressure system, warm, moist air is moving north from the Gulf.
As the low pressure gets stronger, a disturbance in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will also move through. This, combined with a strong cold front moving into an area that is warm and muggy with the flow from the Gulf, will cause the severe weather. The storms are expected to develop along the cold front through Sunday afternoon and evening.
Continuing severe weather threat
The severe weather threat from this system will move east. On Monday, much of the U.S. south, Mid-Atlantic and northeast face a slight risk (level two out of five) for severe weather. Warm, moist air remains in place across this area, and a strong cold front will create the chance for severe weather as it progresses east.
Monday’s threat will mainly include damaging wind gusts, but isolated tornadoes are possible across the southern U.S. The weather will then likely remain unsettled, and the Storm Prediction Center has already outlined part of the Ohio Valley for the possibility of severe weather again on Wednesday, April 2nd.
On Monday, March 31, the severe weather will have moved east. Chart via the Storm Prediction Center.
Understanding severe weather outlooks
The Storm Prediction Center uses a five level risk category system when forecasting severe weather. The levels are marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high.
If your area is outlined in a marginal risk, expect isolated severe storms that are fairly short lived. A slight risk means severe weather is expected, but not widespread. An enhanced risk, which is what millions face today, means more widespread or longer-lasting severe storms are forecast. A moderate risk means widespread severe weather is likely, with storms that could be long-lived and intense, producing large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Finally, a high risk means long-lasting, very intense and widespread damage from severe weather is expected. This would include long-track tornadoes, devastating wind gusts and large hail.
View larger. | A breakdown of the severe thunderstorm risk categories. Chart via the Storm Prediction Center.
Watches vs. Warnings
During a risk for severe weather, watches and warnings are issued in order to keep people aware of dangerous weather that could impact them. But do you know the difference between a weather watch and a warning?
A watch is issued typically hours in advance of impending weather. It means conditions are right for a particular weather hazard to occur, but not that it’s currently occurring.
A weather warning means that particular weather hazard is expected to occur soon, or is already happening.
So if a tornado watch is issued, this means the weather conditions are right for a tornado to form during a severe thunderstorm. A tornado warning means that a tornado is expected to develop, or has already developed and been spotted. During a tornado watch you should immediately go to your safe space and wait for the threat to pass.
Chart via NOAA.
Severe Storm Safety
The safest place during a tornado is in a basement or storm shelter. If you don’t have a basement or storm shelter, locate an interior room or closet in the lowest, most central part of your home, away from all outside windows and walls. If you live in an apartment building or high-rise, go to the very bottom floor of your building and again, find an interior room or closet in the center of the building away from outside walls and windows.
If you’re driving, find the closest building to take shelter in, but do not take shelter under an overpass. An overpass can act as a wind tunnel and make the winds much stronger, and you will be at risk of flying debris.
If you live in a mobile home, get out. A mobile home, even with safety straps, cannot withstand winds from the strongest tornadoes and can easily be blown off its foundations. If your mobile home is in a community and has a community center, go there to take shelter. Otherwise, find a trusted neighbor, family member of friend that has either a basement or a safer place to shelter and stay there until the threat has passed. You can find more severe weather safety tips here.
An early severe weather outlook for Wednesday, April 2. Chart via the Storm Prediction Center
Bottom Line: Millions of Americans are under the threat for severe weather Sunday and Monday as a strong cold front moves across the middle part of the United States. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and significant tornadoes are all possible.
Rachel Duensing
View Articles
About the Author:
Rachel Duensing is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist by the American Meteorological Society and is currently a meteorologist and climate reporter at CBS17 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Rachel has previously worked in Fort Myers, Florida and Carterville, Illinois. In addition to daily weather, she has covered tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, and extreme heat and cold. Rachel received her Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology and Digital Media from Valparaiso University in Valparaiso, Indiana. While at Valpo, she was a member of the Valparaiso University Storm Intercept Team, and along with professors and classmates, chased tornadoes and severe weather across the United State's Great Plains and Midwest. Rachel grew up outside Chester, Illinois, a small town in the southern end of the state (nowhere near Chicago!). When she was only 10 years old, Rachel learned about weather in science class, and when those lessons were followed up by a tornado outbreak outside her town, she took it as a sign and has been in love with weather ever since! When not forecasting the weather or reporting on weather and climate, Rachel spends her time volunteering at a local cat shelter and watching hockey with her husband.