In light of continuing US-backed Russia-Ukraine peace talks, it is worth studying history to consider a potential range of the long-term outcomes for the War in Ukraine.
A South Korea-North Korea type armistice, which followed the 1950-1953 war and has thus far lasted 72 years, is one of the most discussed options.
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With an armistice in place, Ukraine could finally attract large-scale foreign direct investments – and also encourage private insurers to underwrite them, lowering the cost of capital. Ukraine’s benchmark key policy rate currently stands at 15.5%, a full percentage point up since March 6, and a third consecutive hike by the National Bank of Ukraine. Compare that to a 2.5% European Central Bank deposit facility rate or to a 4.25%-4.5% US Federal Funds rate.
South Korea’s transformation after the war, from one of the world’s poorest nations into an economic powerhouse, has often been dubbed the “Miracle on the Han River.”
By adopting export-led industrialization strategy, making substantial investments in education and health care, fostering innovation, and building a powerful defense force (500,000 active duty and 3.1 million reserve standing army), South Korea achieved one of the highest GDP per capita globally (estimated at $36,131 in 2024, ahead of both Saudi Arabia and Japan), more than doubled its population from 20.3 million to 51.8 million people, and raised its life expectancy to 83.8 years.
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Despite some setbacks, South Korea is a success story.
The other end of the spectrum is South Vietnam, which no longer exists.
After gaining independence from France in 1954, Vietnam was split into two parts, with the USSR and China backing the North (Democratic Republic of Vietnam) which invaded the French- and then US-backed South (Republic of Vietnam) almost immediately.
The Vietnam War lasted a full 20 years, from 1955 to 1975, resulting in up to 3.5 million dead, and ended in a crushing defeat of South Vietnam.
In 1968, North Vietnam and South Vietnam started peace talks in Paris, which concluded with the Paris Peace Accords of 1973. The Accords called for, among other things, the withdrawal of all US and allied forces within 60 days, a ban on introducing further military personnel into South Vietnam, and the establishment of an “International Commission of Control and Supervision” (comprised of Canada, Hungary, Indonesia, and Poland) to implement the cease-fire.
The decline of US military and economic aid to South Vietnam followed.
On March 30, 1975, the New York Times published an article “Irate South Vietnamese Charge a Betrayal by Washington,” detailing three arguments that had prompted South Vietnamese anger.
“The first is that the Americans encouraged the fight against the North Vietnamese, trained the army and are now failing, in any large measure, to assist the military economically, as it faces the gravest crisis of the war. The second argument is that Secretary of State Kissinger put pressure on the Saigon Government to sign the Paris cease‐fire agreement of 1973, thus insuring the withdrawal of American troops but now ‘failing’ to assist the Vietnamese in the face of Communist attacks. The third argument is that shrinking American aid, and American disinterest, had a key effect on the strategy of the North Vietnamese in launching their offensive.”
Saigon, the capital of South Vietnam, fell exactly one month later, on April 30, 1975.
History never replays exactly, and Ukraine’s situation is different from either South Vietnam or South Korea. However, “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.