It's been several weeks since US President Donald Trump sent a letter to Iran giving it two months to arrive with him to a nuclear deal or it would likely face military force.
No one knows exactly how Trump will calculate the deadline: two months from when the letter was sent, two months from when the Islamic Republic received the letter, two months from when it responded, or two months from when talks may start.
But after Trump's deadline, European countries Germany, France, and England (the E-3), set June as a deadline for Tehran to reach a nuclear deal lest it face global sanctions being snapped back on it according to a provision of the 2015 nuclear deal it signed with the West.
So whether his deadline is early May or closer to early June like the E-3, we are down to one to two months for a new Iran nuclear deal or for some significant interim progress sufficient to extend the deadline.
Why is Iran facing increased pressure on its nuclear program?
The increased tensions are not just based on Trump's deadline threat.
Iranians hold banners during the annual al-Quds Day in Tehran, Iran, March 28, 2025 (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Iranians hold banners during the annual al-Quds Day in Tehran, Iran, March 28, 2025 (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
In recent days, including again on Sunday, Trump threatened Tehran more explicitly with being attacked, including, "bombing the likes of which they have never seen before."
His latest threat was also unusually ambiguous in that some interpreted it not merely as giving Israel a green light to strike the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, but potentially having the US participate as well.
In a different atmosphere this might be seen as a bluff, but Trump has put forth a large and sustained series of airstrikes against the Houthis of Yemen now for multiple weeks.
This, and the fact that Trump ordered the targeted assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force chief, in 2020, makes the threat of US participation on some level suddenly real.
Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei not turning the other cheek
Meanwhile, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not turning the other cheek.
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He and his lieutenants have said unmistakably that if their nuclear program is struck by anyone, even if it is "just" by Israel, that they will retaliate by attacking every single US base in the region.
They then went out of their way to broaden that definition to even include bases the US shares with other countries, such as the UK Diego Garcia Base in the Indian Ocean and American bases even in countries like Turkey.
This would be in addition to the more obvious US troops in Middle Eastern countries like Syria, and in addition to attacking Israel and Gulf countries like the Saudis, all of whom Khamenei has ordered attacked in the past.
So Khamenei certainly is not bluffing. But something has changed.
Will Donald Trump approve an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program?
Iran is signaling in public that it will make no new concessions beyond what it was willing to make to the Biden administration and that it will not negotiate under pressure, but the fact is that it is saying it will consider indirect negotiations at a time that Trump is threatening it will bombing and instituting a host of tougher sanctions.
Khamenei knew that Biden would try to hold Netanyahu back from attacking Iran's nuclear program as he did on April 19, 2024 and October 26, 2024.
However, he also knows that either Trump will definitely give Netanyahu the green light to attack at some point if there is no deal, or is deeply worried that Trump would approve such a dramatic game-changing strike.
Not only that, but with Iran's five S-300 air defense systems all destroyed by Israel in 2024, it knows that the Israeli air force's capability to destroy or deeply harm and delay the nuclear program has moved from a difficult challenge to being close to a certainty.
Also, Khamenei has seen that Israel was able to shoot down most of its hundreds of ballistic missiles on two separate occasions. Does Khamenei really think his threats of a ballistic missile response will block Israel or the US or both from acting?
All of this makes negotiations much more likely.
Iranians hold banners of Benjamin Netanyahu during the annual al-Quds Day in Tehran, Iran, March 28, 2025 (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Iranians hold banners of Benjamin Netanyahu during the annual al-Quds Day in Tehran, Iran, March 28, 2025 (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Real negotiations between US, Iran will have to begin next month
In terms of when Khamenei must start negotiations and by when he would need to agree to a sufficient enough interim deal to gain a further reprieve, this is harder to say.
Probably real negotiations need to start in around the next month.
Reaching an interim deal could drag out longer, until September, given that the global sanctions snapback does not expire until October and that Trump's deadline was somewhat arbitrary.
But there is no question that we are either nearing the end game leading to an attack on Iran's nuclear program or to serious new nuclear negotiations which will kick the can down the road a few months, but not much farther than that.
The clock is ticking.