This seems generous.
The 49ers are coming off a dismal 6-11 season, they just let nine starters walk in free agency and replaced a grand total of none of them.
And yet, the over/under for the 49ers' win total in 2025 is 10.5 according to Draft Kings. Meanwhile, the over/under for each of the other three teams in the NFC West is 8.5. Go figure.
Keep in mind, the 49ers finished dead last in the NFC West last season while the Rams finished first, narrowly lost to the Eagles in the playoffs and recently swapped out Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams. They got better.
The 49ers have not gotten better yet this offseason. Maybe they'll improve in the draft -- they currently own 11 picks and they drafted quite well last season. Plus they will get to face every team in the AFC South and the NFC South.
But so will the Rams, the Seahawks and the Cardinals. And they've all improved in free agency why the 49ers slash their spending so they can afford to keep players already on the team, players such as Brock Purdy, George Kittle and perhaps Fred Warner.
In addition, barring a surprise trade, the 49ers will have to spend big money on Brandon Aiyuk who probably won't be ready to play until midseason after tearing his ACL, MCL and meniscus last year.
Granted, if Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams both play 17 games next season, the 49ers absolutely could win 11 games or more. But the odds of those two players staying healthy for an entire season have to be extremely low.