TOKYO/MANILA/SEOUL – The United States is not going anywhere and stands shoulder to shoulder with its Indo-Pacific allies in facing down regional threats, especially from China.
That was the key message that US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth sought to convey to Japan and the Philippines on his maiden tour of the region ended on March 30 that, however, skipped South Korea.
Anxieties have been stoked by US President Donald Trump’s track record of walking back on pacts on issues such as free trade and climate, raising existential questions over whether he would do the same with security treaties.
The durability and dependability of the US as a security guarantor have also been called into question as Washington badgers its allies to spend more for their own defences after decades of relying on the US security umbrella.
Japan and South Korea host US troops, while the Philippines is a longstanding treaty ally. All three countries have been disconcerted by the extraordinary White House blow-up between Mr Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Mr Volodymyr Zelensky, in February.
“Trump’s unpredictability cuts both ways. On the one hand, it may enhance deterrence. On the other, it can also fuel the fear of abandonment,” Professor Heng Yee Kuang of University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy told The Straits Times.
During his trip, Mr Hegseth emphasised that the alliances are “iron-clad” and the “cornerstone of peace and security”. Manila and Tokyo, he said, are vital partners “in deterring military aggression from Communist China”.
Yet, his decision to bypass South Korea, with both North Korea and China in its backyard, is seen in Seoul as a fresh blow to the bilateral alliance. The country has struggled to engage with Mr Trump’s administration after President Yoon Suk Yeol’s short-lived martial law decree on Dec 3 led to political chaos. The defence minister position has been vacant since December.
The optics were very positive in the other two Asian capitals.
In Tokyo on March 30, Mr Hegseth and Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani bonded over how they were both former infantry officers.
“We don’t speak the same language, but we understand what the threats are, what camaraderie means, what brotherhood means as we stand shoulder to shoulder,” Mr Hegseth said.
Describing Japan as a “model ally”, he stressed: “President Trump has made it very clear, and we reiterate, we are going to put America First. But America First does not mean America alone.”
Two days earlier in Manila, Mr Hegseth told his counterpart, Mr Gilberto Teodoro Jr, that the US will fully restore its US$500 million (S$670 million) military aid package to the Philippines.
Despite the show of unity, Dr Tosh Minohara, who chairs the Research Institute of Indo-Pacific Affairs think-tank, told ST: “Rhetoric is important. But at the same time, I would caution bureaucrats and politicians that just because one person says something, (it) doesn’t mean Trump necessarily believes it.
“It is a government with many faces and competing voices.”
The China threat
Dr Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow of the Washington-based Hudson Institute think-tank, believes the US will remain committed in the Indo-Pacific given the Chinese threat.
“The US is focused on its competition with China. To deter Beijing, Trump must boost hard power with regional allies,” Dr Nagao said, describing the accusations of unfair defence partnerships as “intimidation”.
He added: “The US will not withdraw, because all it serves is to create a vacuum.”
What this means is that there will be steady pressure on regional capitals to prove that they are contributing their fair share to regional security.
The other side of the same coin is that countries will, in buying more equipment, be better equipped in their own defences while pacifying Mr Trump with large defence outlays.
Mr Trump has criticised the US-Japan alliance as unequal. On March 6, he said: “We have an interesting deal with Japan that we have to protect them, but they don’t have to protect us.”
His nominee for undersecretary of defence, Mr Elbridge Colby, has also said that Japan – currently the world’s No. 10 military spender – should boost its defence spending to 3 per cent of gross domestic product. This is above the current target of 2 per cent by 2027.
While Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has said that Japan will decide its defence budget based on its own national interests, he is on the same page as Mr Trump in viewing the alliance as “asymmetrical”. He has mooted Self-Defence Forces (SDF) personnel being hosted on the US territory of Guam.
Experts said their identical views offer an opening to confront Japan’s longstanding defence taboos that are rooted in its history as a wartime aggressor, and aimed at ensuring it does not remilitarise.
Japan is now increasingly expected to do more, not just for its own security but also the region.
What this means, Dr Minohara said, is that Japan urgently needs to look at revising its Constitution to give its SDF more teeth and initiative to fight alongside friendly nations.
“This could be an impetus for Japan to reconsider how to recalibrate its defence-first doctrine,” he said. “An attack on your alliance partner should be an attack on Japan... And if you are a realist, you know that Japan can’t defend itself and needs the US to be involved.”
There was also uncertainty as multiple American media outlets reported on March 20 that the Pentagon was considering halting a planned expansion of US Forces Japan (USFJ) as it would save about US$1.1 billion.
Mr Hegseth sought to reassure Tokyo on March 30 by pledging that USFJ will be “reorganised into a war-fighting headquarters” with more boots on the ground.
Accusations of being a “free rider” have also been levelled against South Korea, and Mr Trump threatened to withdraw US troops from the country if Seoul did not increase its financial contributions to support the joint forces.
His beef lay in host nation support. While Seoul agreed in November 2024 to pay 1.52 trillion won (S$1.39 billion) yearly – nearly 10 per cent more than the previous agreement – this falls short of the US$10 billion a year demanded by Mr Trump.
Mr Colby said on March 4 that while North Korea is a “severe direct military threat to South Korea on multiple levels”, there is still a need for wealthy allies to “do more” for their security.
Dr Byun Sang-jeong of South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy told ST that Seoul must be prepared to offer “an appropriate additional contribution” if Mr Trump comes asking.
One possibility, she said, is for Seoul to consider “deploying additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) missile defence systems to support its security and Trump’s strategy to contain China”.
Yet, like Dr Nagao, she was sanguine that the US would maintain its presence in the Indo-Pacific.
“Mr Trump understands the strategic value of US bases in South Korea in pressuring China,” she said, noting how US nuclear strategic assets can play a role in containing China’s military assertiveness in regional waters.
Strategic diversification
Observers believe that countries should forge closer partnerships – a legacy of the “latticework” of security arrangements pushed for by former US president Joe Biden – to hedge against a less present US in the region.
Europe and Asean, as well as countries such as Australia and India, are natural partners for Japan, Prof Heng noted.
Philippine geopolitical analyst Robin Garcia of public affairs firm WR Numero told ST that Manila is “no longer putting all its eggs in the US basket”. He added that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s government “understands that while Washington is a crucial partner, strategic diversification is key”.
Manila has inked a reciprocal access agreement with Japan, allowing troops from both nations to train on each other’s soil, with similar deals struck with Canada, New Zealand and France. It has bought cruise missiles from India, and is planning to buy warships from South Korea.
“We cannot be too complacent. The US remains committed to the region for now, but Manila must take a proactive approach to ensure its security interests remain protected,” defence analyst Don McLain Gill of De La Salle University in Manila said in the Feb 20 episode of ST’s Asian Insider podcast.
Meanwhile, Dr Doo Jin-ho of the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses said that Mr Trump’s emphasis on containing China would necessitate trilateral security cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea.
“Strengthening military readiness in the Indo-Pacific is essential to rein in China, which makes it highly likely that the US-Japan-South Korea security cooperation will continue,” he said, adding that this has the added benefit of establishing deterrence against North Korea.
Walter Sim is Japan correspondent at The Straits Times. Based in Tokyo, he writes about political, economic and socio-cultural issues.
Mara Cepeda is Philippines correspondent at The Straits Times.
Wendy Teo is The Straits Times’ South Korea correspondent based in Seoul. She covers issues concerning the two Koreas.
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