TOKYO – Up to 298,000 people in Japan could die in a mega quake occurring in the Nankai Trough, a revised estimate by the government’s earthquake task force showed on March 31, with efforts to mitigate damage reducing the number by around 10 per cent from the previous estimate in 2012.
The reduction, however, falls short of the goal of reducing fatalities by around 80 per cent set in the government’s 2014 basic plan for disaster prevention, highlighting the need for major revisions in evacuation strategies and infrastructure improvements.
In its latest report, the task force projected the number of evacuees would rise from the previous estimate in 2012 of 9.5 million to 12.3 million, equivalent to around 10 per cent of Japan’s population.
A total of 764 municipalities across 31 of Japan’s 47 prefectures would experience shaking measuring at least a lower 6 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7, or tsunami waves at least 3m high.
While economic losses are projected to reach up to 270 trillion yen (S$2.4 trillion), rising from the previous estimate of 214 trillion yen, the maximum number of buildings expected to be completely destroyed was slightly reduced to 2.35 million due to improvements in residential seismic retrofitting.
According to the report, 215,000 out of the projected 298,000 deaths would be caused by tsunami, based on the assumption that only 20 per cent of people would evacuate immediately.
Increasing the evacuation rate to 70 per cent could reduce the tsunami death toll to 94,000, underscoring the importance of swift evacuation.
The area expected to experience flooding of at least 30cm increased 30 per cent from the previous estimate due to advancements in topographical data analysis.
The overall death toll is not expected to decline significantly despite seawalls and tsunami evacuation facilities.
Among the scenarios projected, the deadliest involves a magnitude 9-class earthquake occurring on a winter night, with severe damage concentrated in the Tokai region. In this case, the estimated death toll by prefecture would be the highest in Shizuoka at 101,000, followed by Miyazaki at 33,000 and Mie at 29,000.
In addition to the estimated 298,000 direct fatalities, the government also projected for the first time between 26,000 and 52,000 “disaster-related deaths” caused by situations such as deteriorating health conditions in evacuation shelters.
The government will revise its disaster prevention plan to designate additional priority areas based on the expanded flood risk zones, as well as develop a new national resilience plan for fiscal 2026 to 2030 to accelerate infrastructure development.
A new agency for disaster prevention will also be established in fiscal 2026. KYODO NEWS
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