Presented by ExxonMobil
Brussels Playbook
By NICHOLAS VINOCUR
with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
STRIKE WARNING: They say the French strike a lot, but the Belgians aren’t far behind. The country will experience widespread disruption today because of a general strike called by unions in protest against budget cuts by the new federal government. No planes will depart from Zaventem Airport and all flights in and out of Charleroi are canceled. Expect major disruptions on Brussels public transport. Still running: metro line 1, trams 4, 7, 10 and 51, and bus lines 46, 59, 71, 73 and 87. Updates here.
GREETINGS, this is Nick Vinocur bringing you your morning dose of Playbook (two shots of espresso, one dash of snark). Let’s go.
DRIVING THE DAY: LE PEN’S MOMENT OF TRUTH Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
DECISION DAY: It’s rare that a major politician’s future comes down to a single court ruling. Yet that’s where we’re at in France, as Marine Le Pen faces being barred from running in the 2027 presidential election if a court today rules against her in an embezzlement case. It could be a death blow for the far-right politician’s long-held ambition of becoming French president.
Why it’s huge: Le Pen has never been closer to winning the presidency, as my colleagues Victor Goury-Laffont and Sarah Paillou detail in this must-read piece. Polling suggests she would win the largest share of votes regardless of who was up against her in an election. Other potential contenders such as former PMs Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal and ex-Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire all poll well below Le Pen.
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Role of a lifetime: Le Pen has been gearing up for France’s top job since she took over leadership of the National Rally party (then named the National Front) from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2011. She’s run for president three times, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, growing her share of the vote with every bid. Crucially, she has chipped away at the taboo surrounding the National Rally. Despite ceding the party presidency to Jordan Bardella, Le Pen remains its biggest personality — the only one who could plausibly win a French election.
It’s Le Pen or bust: Indeed, fittingly for a party long described as a family concern, the National Rally has no Plan B, Victor and Sarah report. Bardella may be Le Pen’s heir apparent, but at 29, he’s still viewed, even inside the party, as too green for the big job. Read the full story here.
When to tune in: Judges in the embezzlement trial dogging Le Pen are expected to announce their decision between 10 a.m. and noon CET. If she’s found guilty of having participated in a scheme to embezzle funds from the European Parliament, she could be barred from running in elections for the next five years.
What it’s about: Defendants in the case, including Le Pen, stand accused of operating a scheme by which they illegally siphoned money earmarked for European parliamentary assistants and used the funds to pay party employees who seldom or never dealt with affairs in Brussels or Strasbourg.
Wayback machine: In 2016, POLITICO broke the news that Le Pen’s party had been ordered to pay back some €800,000 to the European Parliament, a staggering amount for the cash-strapped party.
Party insiders aren’t optimistic about today’s ruling. According to one MP who spoke to Victor, “if you don’t work, it’s hard to prove that you did work.”
Not looking good: One of Le Pen’s close associates, also granted anonymity to speak frankly about the case’s impact, said being barred from seeking office for five years would amount to “political death” for Le Pen. “A Plan B needs to be prepared, planned for, thought through,” the associate added. “Our Plan B already exists, but he’s our candidate for prime minister.”
In other words: The National Rally would survive an unfavorable outcome in the embezzlement case. But its hopes of winning the 2027 election would almost certainly not.
Wider view: This is a watershed moment for the rule of law in liberal democracies. In the U.S., Donald Trump is railing against judicial decisions and promising to have judges impeached. Your Playbook author is obsessed with Tom Holland’s book “Rubicon,” chronicling the final years, months and days leading up to the end of the Roman Republic. The analogy with today’s world isn’t perfect, but the idea that republics are fragile things which, once destroyed, rarely recover, resonates powerfully.
Echoes of history: Le Pen’s case in France presents an opposite extreme: a judicial system poised to knock a major politician out of the game, likely for good. Whatever decision the judges take later this morning, it’s sure to prove hugely divisive.
EUROPE’S SPECIAL TRUMP ENVOY Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
FINLAND’S STUBB WHISPERS IN TRUMP’S EAR OVER GOLF: Europe counts many would-be Trump whisperers (Giorgia Meloni, Viktor Orbán, Mark Rutte, to name a few). But so far, only one can claim the prize of being invited for a round of golf with the American: Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who popped up on Trump’s Truth Social feed on Saturday, grinning in golf whites next to POTUS. Write-up here by Laura Kayali.
How it happened: Stubb’s invitation to golf with Trump was in the works for several weeks, Playbook hears from a person aware of the plans. Confirmation came last week. Stubb flew to Miami from last week’s Paris summit, where he had just briefed French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Nordic partners on his plans.
The Graham Channel: Stubb has been in regular touch with Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, who may well have facilitated the Trump encounter. Graham was present for the golf round, which Trump’s team won (surprise, surprise).
Chin wag: On top of talking about Arctic and polar icebreakers (Finland, the U.S. and Canada have a deal to develop them), Stubb used his time in the golf cart to share some Finnish wisdom about Russia, the war in Ukraine and Trump, per the same person mentioned above.
On message: The first is that in Russia’s war against Ukraine, Trump has the cards — he has leverage and can use it to force Vladimir Putin to a real ceasefire. Then there is the idea that there needs to be a deadline, as Putin cannot be allowed to drag his feet forever. If Putin balks, Trump can use sanctions as a threat to bend him toward this goal, which must be a durable peace. Finally, Trump should be on his guard — Putin is not trustworthy.
How did that go?Just look at Trump’s interview on NBC News on Sunday. For the first time maybe ever, Trump made critical comments about Putin, saying he was “very angry” and “pissed off” that the Russian leader appeared to be stalling in implementing the ceasefire by asking for a change of leadership in Ukraine. This change in tone came just hours after the Stubb-Trump golf outing.
Stubb then briefed Zelenskyy, who thanked him, mentioning a shared understanding that the ceasefire must be “unconditional and reliable.”
Reality check: But it’s worth remembering that Trump makes a habit of contradicting himself, and this was no different. Later on Sunday, Trump said he trusts Putin, telling reporters: “I don’t think he’s going to go back on his word.” He also said Zelenskyy was trying to back out of the minerals deal with the U.S., adding that Kyiv will have “some problems” if he does.
Why it matters: Regardless, Sunday’s comments do appear to show that Stubb got through to Trump, even if fleetingly — something no one else in Europe has managed to do. With the U.S. administration threatening Europe on Greenland and on tariffs, EU leaders are eager for any chance to influence Trump or officials around him. So far, such efforts have gone poorly for the likes of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, neither of whom has managed to get face time with Trump since he started his second term.
MAGA-lite: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni touts herself as a potential bridge to Trump but has little to show for her privileged ties. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán may be ideologically compatible with MAGA, but his isolation in Europe precludes a role as EU representative.
Hence the applause for Stubb from some quarters. The Finnish president managed the balancing act of being outspoken on Ukraine (here’s what he told POLITICO this month on ending the war) without antagonizing Trump.
Trump envoy? It’s a sign Stubb isn’t giving up on his hopes of a high-flying diplomatic role. Kallas rained cold water on his idea of being a special envoy for Ukraine and Russia at the last European Council meeting, prompting Stubb to put forward others — namely Macron and British PM Keir Starmer.
Bottom line: Turns out, Stubb may be doing the job already, sans title.
LIBERATION WEEK Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
BRACING FOR TARIFFS: After much buildup, this is the week Donald Trump is set to impose tariffs on EU goods, with Wednesday, April 2, earmarked as D-Day. Those duties will likely take the form of a flat percentage for the EU, calculated based on the trade barriers the bloc imposes on U.S. exports, Camille Gijs writes in today’s Morning Trade newsletter. Two diplomats suggested the tariff could be as high as 20 or 25 percent, although that’s still fluid.
Right on cue: The European Commission is expected to fine Apple and Meta this week for violating the DMA, the EU’s digital competition rules, thrusting Big Tech into the escalating trade war. Last month, Trump declared in a memo that the DMA would face scrutiny and could lead to reciprocal tariffs. Jacob Parry, Camille and Francesca Micheletti have more on that here.
What about pharma? Our trade colleagues in the U.S. and Europe write that tariffs on pharmaceuticals, which Trump has named as one of the five specific industries to be targeted on top of the flat rate, could come later in April, according to diplomats they spoke to. “But it is not sure which of the big ones will be targeted at the EU,” one diplomat said. “Maybe they will give us the honor only with some of the sectors such as automotive.”
Who’s worried: Ireland, Germany and Switzerland are the most exposed to U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the Netherlands, Italy and Belgium also have significant drugs exports to the U.S.
Trump singled out Dublin: When the Irish prime minister visited the White House earlier this month, Trump said: “Ireland has our pharmaceutical companies, this beautiful island of 5 million people has got the entire U.S. pharmaceutical industry in its grasp.”
In the Brussels bubble: Ireland’s Finance Minister Jack Chambers told reporters Friday that his government has had “extensive engagement” with the European Commission.
Urging caution: “We need to be careful about retaliatory and tit-for-tat measures,” Chambers said, adding that could worsen a trade dispute. He flagged the “concentration risk” in certain sectors — pharma and tech — and said the EU has been “reflecting that in their own deliberations with the U.S.” Belgium’s Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke made similar comments earlier this year, warning that countermeasures from the EU could have unintended consequences for Europe’s drug supplies.
Nevertheless:The Commission has said it plans to impose counter-tariffs on €26 billion worth of goods (although it has said it’s open to negotiations and considers higher tariffs in no one’s interest).
FOCUS ON GERMANY Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
NEW COALITION SPELLS TROUBLE FOR HUNGARY: Germany’s incoming government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives along with the Social Democrats, plans to push the EU to take stronger action against member countries that violate democratic principles — a clear signal to Hungary, Nette Nöstlinger reports.
Time to punish Orbán: A leaked draft of the German coalition agreement calls for stricter enforcement tools, including withholding EU funds and suspending voting rights. This comes amid long-standing concerns over Hungary’s erosion of judicial independence and press freedom, as well as its obstructive stance on EU sanctions against Russia.
The end of the German vote? The coalition also aims to end Berlin’s habit of abstaining on key EU votes. But internal disagreements over how to coordinate national positions in Brussels persist.
GREENS GO BACK TO THEIR ROOTS: Meanwhile, the Greens’ poor showing in the German election is forcing the party to return to its activist roots, Chris Lunday and Jan Alexander Casper report.
NOW READ THIS GOLD NUGGET: Germany holds the world’s second-largest gold reserves, and keeps 37 percent of them in the vaults of the New York Federal Reserve. But as Carlo Martuscelli reports in this fascinating must-read, Germany’s conservatives are now questioning whether the U.S. can be trusted with Berlin’s gold.
IT’S NOT EASY BEING GREEN Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
SCALING BACK AMBITIONS: EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is considering options to soften the bloc’s 2040 climate goal as he tries to contain a backlash against Europe’s climate ambitions, POLITICO’s Karl Mathiesen reports, noting that he’s considering four options to give countries more leeway.
EPP PRESSURES COMMISSION ON NGO FUNDING: The European People’s Party is confident it can rally a center-to-right majority of MEPs to back its call today to review the functioning of the EU’s LIFE program, which gives out funding for NGOs. Tonight’s vote in the environment committee is expected to be tight as green and left-wing groups oppose the move, Louise Guillot writes in to report.
In the driving seat: EPP member Sander Smit, who filed a motion to force the European Commission to review the LIFE work plan for 2025-2027, told our Morning Sustainability newsletter that he expects “broad support” for his proposal. “There is a clear bloc of some parts of Renew, EPP, ECR, Patriots and other parties” backing him, he said.
Context: Smit, along with other EU lawmakers, mainly from the right, accuses the Commission of using funding from the LIFE program for environmental and climate action to get NGOs to lobby on its behalf to promote the Green Deal. POLITICO reviewed 28 of these NGO contracts and found no evidence that the Commission coerced activist groups to lobby on its behalf. But Smit argues the allocation of the EU funds needs to be more transparent and that NGOs should not receive EU cash for lobbying.
Orbán’s playbook: But some lawmakers on the left warn that the EPP is taking a leaf out of the far-right populists’ playbook. “The EPP with the support of the far right are preparing to strike another blow against democracy,” said Dutch MEP Bas Eickhout, the Greens co-chair in Parliament. “The attack on the EU’s environmental and climate financing program LIFE follows the script of Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán against NGOs and civil society,” he said, calling on “the democratic center and the EPP to not team up with the far right to silence NGOs and civil society.”
EUROPEAN YOUTH DEFEND CIVIL SOCIETY: In a joint statement released Friday, the European Youth Forum and youth wings of the Socialists and Democrats, Greens and Renew condemned attacks on civil society organizations that receive EU funding. The statement cited as an example a recent amendment proposed by MEPs from the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR) that criticized funding being awarded to the Young European Federalists and other “pro-EU activists” in 2023. “Discrediting youth-led organisations threatens the foundation of European democracy,” the statement said.
IN OTHER NEWS Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
RUSSIA AND THE U.S. ARE WORKING ON A MINERALS DEAL, according to Russian state media. “Rare earth metals are an important area for cooperation, and we have certainly started discussions about various rare earth metals and projects in Russia,” Kirill Dmitriev, Russia’s special envoy on international economic and investment cooperation, told Izvestia.
TRUMP TO VISIT SAUDI ARABIA: Donald Trump is planning to visit Saudi Arabia in mid-May on his first foreign trip since returning to the White House, Axios reports.
GETTING REAL ON STEEL: The EU wants to rearm, reindustrialize and refinance as Trump’s America abandons the role of global policeman. It’s all about steel, writes Koen Verhelst from Germany.
AGENDA Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
— European Parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg; MEPs will discuss the guidelines for the 2026 budget at 5:30 p.m. … the Savings and Investments Union at 6:30 p.m. … the European Cultural Compass at 7:30 p.m. … the situation of European academics and researchers in the U.S. at 8:30 p.m. … and the need to ensure democratic pluralism at 9:30 p.m.Watch.
— Parliament President Roberta Metsola meets Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at 4:15 p.m. … presides over the opening of the plenary session at 5 p.m.; presides over the European Parliament’s bureau at 6 p.m.
— Commission President von der Leyen receives parliamentary group leaders Manfred Weber (EPP), Iratxe García Pérez (S&D) and Valérie Hayer (Renew).
— “SOS Ocean” conference in Paris. Council President António Costa delivers a speech at 9:15 a.m.Watch. Oceans Commissioner Costas Kadis is also speaking.
— EU High Representative Kaja Kallas attends the Weimar+ meeting on European security and Ukraine in Madrid, Spain. Doorstep at 12:15 p.m.Watch.
— NATO Deputy Secretary-General Radmila Shekerinska meets Peter Sørensen, the EU special representative for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue and other Western Balkan regional issues.
— Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič receives Carlos Cuerpo, Spain’s trade minister.
— Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner participates in the Border Security Summit in London.
— Intergenerational Fairness Commissioner Glenn Micallef meets Inga Ruginienė, Lithuania’s social security minister.
BRUSSELS CORNER Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
WEATHER: High of 13, mostly cloudy.
MEA CULPA: In Friday’s Playbook, we mistakenly included the birthday of former MEP Inés Ayala Sender, who died last year. We apologize for any distress we may have caused.
BIRTHDAYS: Governor of the Bank of Finland Olli Rehn; former MEPs Tomasz Poręba, Christian Allard and Damian Drăghici; France’s former permanent representative to the OECD and POLITICO 28 alum Muriel Pénicaud; Gilead Sciences’ Andrea Zanaglio; journalist’ Romain Clivaz; Euronews’ Francoise Champey; Médianes’ Quentin Ariès; European Commission’s Daniel Ferrie.
THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
**A message from ExxonMobil: Put industry to work. To develop a more circular economy, Europe needs technology solutions. ExxonMobil has helped meet the world’s energy and product needs for over 140 years. Its 62,000 employees around the world work to address today’s challenges, including plastic waste. That’s where chemical recycling comes in. Complementary to traditional methods, this technology helps broaden the range of plastics that can find a second life. But to attract investments in this sector, Europe needs supportive policies. Read more about chemical recycling and the need for policy change in Recycling Expanded.* *
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