Peter Magyar has almost eliminated Hungary’s divided opposition, paving the way for a two-party system against Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party.
March 15, 2025: Peter Magyar, the leader of the Tisza party, joined his supporters at a rally in Budapest to commemorate the 177th anniversary of the 1848 Hungarian Revolution.
March 15, 2025: Peter Magyar, the leader of the Tisza party, joined his supporters at a rally in Budapest to commemorate the 177th anniversary of the 1848 Hungarian Revolution. © Getty Images
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In a nutshell
Peter Magyar’s Tisza party secured significant support in 2024
Discontent with Fidesz is rising amid economic and corruption concerns
Mr. Magyar has resorted to controversial tactics to raise his profile
Since its first electoral victory in 2010, Hungary’s Fidesz party and its leader, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, have consistently faced opposition parties from across the political spectrum, ranging from far left to far right. In 2024, Peter Magyar emerged as a notable figure. He has succeeded in winning over the supporters and voters of most opposition parties for his newly established party. As a result, for the first time since the collapse of communism, a two-party system has effectively taken shape in Hungary.
Until early 2024, Mr. Magyar was relatively unknown to the public. Those familiar with him knew him mainly as the husband of Judit Varga, the former Fidesz justice minister and a European Parliament candidate. Their marriage ended in 2023. Shortly afterward, Ms. Varga resigned from her position, along with President Katalin Novak, following public outrage over the pardon of a teacher who allegedly covered up for his headmaster, a convicted child abuser.
Mr. Magyar, the son of a communist clan of lawyers, had been a privileged member of the Fidesz inner circle until the divorce. During that time, he held jobs in state and semi-state companies and businesses tied to Lorinc Meszaros, a prominent Fidesz-affiliated entrepreneur, earning approximately 24,000 euros monthly. After the divorce, these positions and benefits were phased out. In February 2024, following Ms. Varga’s resignation, Mr. Magyar appeared for the first time publicly in a YouTube interview on the leftist Partizan channel, expressing support for his ex-wife but also hinting at knowledge of internal Fidesz operations, including possible corruption and fraud.
A new opposition takes shape
His first political appearance coincided with heightened public interest in the pardon controversy, when anyone promising political insights about Fidesz was sure to attract significant attention. From then on, Mr. Magyar gained prominence in Hungary’s left-leaning media and social media platforms like Facebook. He has not yet provided detailed disclosures about Fidesz’s alleged corruption, as he initially suggested.
In the spring 2024 European Parliament elections, his newly formed party, the Respect and Freedom (Tisztelet es Szabadsag or Tisza) Party, received 29.7 percent of the vote straightaway. The ruling Fidesz, however, emerged as the election winner with 44 percent of the vote share – still its worst-ever result in a European Parliament election.
Supported by the left-leaning media, Mr. Magyar has managed to maintain a high level of political excitement throughout the year. The method was, and still is, to disregard generally accepted political procedures and the rules of good behavior. He secretly recorded private conversations not only with his ex-wife but also with his later girlfriend and wanted to use these recordings in court against them and others. He showed up without permission at hospitals, state child-protection facilities and other state institutions with camera crews and bodyguards to produce “revealing” reports. He has also frequently criticized politicians, particularly Prime Minister Orban in an extremely rude manner, accusing them of misconduct, corruption, theft, fraud and treason.
May 13, 2019: President Donald Trump (left) with Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the West Wing of the White House.
May 13, 2019: President Donald Trump (left) with Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the West Wing of the White House. © Getty Images
In late December 2024, Mr. Magyar demanded that the state television station let him deliver the traditional New Year’s address instead of the president. When this was rejected, he delivered his New Year’s speech on social media. There he urged President Tamas Sulyok to meet with him to “coordinate with him” and discuss the possibility of early elections. He insisted that President Sulyok, who is constitutionally required to remain politically neutral, act immediately to call these elections – an action that would have clearly violated the constitution. Mr. Magyar did not explain why early elections would be necessary, given that the ruling Fidesz party holds a stable two-thirds majority in parliament. In response, the president admonished Mr. Magyar in sharp words to respect the constitution.
Nevertheless, afterward, Mr. Magyar critized the government for lacking the courage to allow him to address the public on state television and for not daring to call for a new election. However, in a January by-election, Fidesz secured a landslide victory, while Tisza chose not to field any candidates. Furthermore, an opinion poll indicated that most voters disagree with the Tisza leader’s demand to push the election timeline, which is scheduled for 2026. Since then, he has withdrawn his demand for early elections. Now, he is hinting at the possibility of street protests, drawing inspiration from the “color revolutions” and mass demonstrations like those that recently took place in Serbia and Slovakia.
Most recently, on March 15, the anniversary of the 1848 independence uprising against the Habsburg empire, about 20,000 demonstrators – transported by bus from across the country – gathered along Budapest’s iconic Andrassy Avenue to support a rally held by Mr. Magyar. This gathering was roughly the same size as the official rally held by Prime Minister Orban, for which people were only mobilized in the capital, Budapest.
Questions remain about Magyar’s preparedness to lead Hungary
We know very little about Mr. Magyar’s foreign policy plans. Tisza advocates pro-European Union policies, contrasting with Fidesz’s euroskepticism. Mr. Magyar supports EU positions on free migration into the country and he is ready to continue and support the war against Russia in Ukraine. He has also expressed his willingness to cooperate with the European Anti-Fraud Office.
Mr. Magyar’s domestic policy focuses on broad improvements, including upgrades to hospitals, schools, roads and railways, as well as increasing the income of citizens from both the state and private sectors. The money would come partially from the EU, which – he believes – would promptly transfer all withheld funds after he assumes power. Additional resources would come from the expropriation of the current leadership and Fidesz beneficiaries. To support this vision, he has proposed a large-scale prison construction program. His domestic program has just one concrete element: to overthrow and punish the Fidesz government and, in particular, Prime Minister Orban.
Mr. Magyar’s true realm is on Facebook, where he has tens of thousands of followers. He regularly posts statements criticizing the Orban government and individuals he does not like, along with personal updates that show him wearing skin-tight T-shirts and pants in a masculine pose.
It is already apparent that the upcoming 2026 Hungarian election campaign will be influenced by the EU and the United States. American and European interference in Hungarian politics has persisted since the collapse of communism and has intensified, particularly since 2010, during the second Fidesz government. Mr. Magyar represents all foreign forces seeking to overthrow Mr. Orban and the Fidesz government, including the EU and the American Democrats.
Recently released documents concerning the activities of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) reveal that since 2008, there have been contracts, grants, direct payments and loans related to Hungary totaling $842.7 million. Most of this funding was directed – often channeled through the EU and the George Soros Foundations – toward non-governmental organizations widely regarded as green-left-leaning, and the circle of green-left media that facilitated Mr. Magyar’s rise. The data, which has been public only since mid-February, raises serious questions about whether Mr. Magyar’s rapid ascent was due to a series of random, unusual events or the outcome of a long-standing strategy.
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Facts & figures
Hungary’s annual GDP growth rate
Most Hungarians are discontented
If everything were fine in the country, such a negatively charged campaign could, at best, mobilize a minority on the fringes of society. However, problems are piling up. By the end of 2024, 80 percent of Hungarians believed the country was heading in the wrong direction.
Hungary’s economy is stagnating, with gross domestic product (GDP) experiencing minimal growth of 0.7 percent in 2024. In 2023, inflation reached the highest rate in the eurozone at an average of 17 percent, affecting the population, particularly the middle class. While inflation has now declined considerably to 3 percent (as of September 2024), food prices remain high, disproportionately affecting the poor.
Some economic issues stem from external factors, such as the sanctions against Russia, but many are domestic. On January 25, Prime Minister Orban stated in an interview that the sanctions had caused 18.4 billion euros in damage to Hungary. Another contributing factor is the crisis in Germany. In recent years, the government has encouraged and supported foreign investments (mainly German), primarily in the automotive industry. This is now resulting in negative consequences. Economics Minister Marton Nagy estimates that the German economic crisis could reduce Hungary’s GDP growth by 1-2 percent, with no improvement in sight.
Read more by Krisztina Koenen
Further economic losses stem from the punitive measures imposed by the EU. It is withholding payment of 22.5 billion euros in structural aid due to corruption and Hungary’s asylum policy, which it deems a violation of the rule of law. The strained state budget makes it difficult to offer tax-funded benefits to lift public spirits.
As long as the Fidesz government could keep its promise that everyone would be a little better off each year, people were more willing to overlook the party’s shortcomings, especially nepotism and corruption. Now, patience is wearing thin and dissatisfaction is on the rise.
Even the director of the pro-government think tank Szazadveg is alarmed about the growing discontent. The middle class has distanced itself from Fidesz, said Agoston Samuel Mraz, head of the Hungarian think tank Nezopont Institute. “It is a very bad track record for the system of the last 14 years that someone emerges from complete obscurity and forms within a year a block that has no will or thought other than to chase away the prime minister and his allegiance,” he said.
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Scenarios
Less likely: Economic conditions to significantly improve in Hungary
The next election in Hungary is set for early 2026. If Fidesz fails to initiate an economic recovery and significantly improve people’s situations, this could strengthen Mr. Magyar’s Tisza party. It is uncertain how this recovery can be achieved amid a stagnating and declining EU, particularly against the backdrop of a faltering German economy. However, the end of the war in Ukraine, which is already in view, and the lifting of sanctions against Russia could benefit Hungary.
Prime Minister Orban has placed great hopes on Donald Trump’s election victory. His close relationship with the American president has enhanced his prestige. Through the USAID disclosures, President Trump has already provided indirect support to Prime Minister Orban. Yet, contradictions exist: Mr. Orban’s economic pivot to China to escape European stagnation may create tension with American interests, leading to conflicts.
Likely: Fidesz will win the 2026 elections
Currently, it is hard to determine which party is in the lead since polling institutes tend to show results favoring the party they are aligned with. For example, Tisza is leading with 44 percent in the left-leaning Median, while Mr. Orban’s party is ahead with 47 percent in the Fidesz-friendly Nezopont Institute. Moreover, these polls are limited because they only measure party preferences. However, the Hungarian electoral system combines party and personality voting. When it comes to personality voting, the numbers will certainly differ. Fidesz has developed structures, particularly in rural areas, with trusted personalities who could help secure the election for the party.
Mr. Magyar’s weakness lies precisely in the lack of established party structures. So far, he has brought in a small number of – often dubious – individuals who, like him, are no longer aligned with Fidesz. This may be due to the leader-cult in the party and the chairman’s difficult personality. In a recent interview, Mr. Magyar claimed that the party has tens of thousands of members working with thousands of experts. He also said 65 working groups are developing materials for different scenarios, for the preparation of a state budget and geopolitical developments. However, these claims have not been independently confirmed.
The EU, especially the European People’s Party and its leader, Manfred Weber (a member of Germany’s Christian Social Union), are Mr. Magyar’s key supporters. Mr. Weber and the EU leadership view him as the future prime minister. The EU will attempt to compensate for the lost American support, though certainly not completely. At the same time, it will do everything possible to complicate matters for Prime Minister Orban and Fidesz.
President Trump’s election has tilted the balance in Hungary in favor of Mr. Orban and Fidesz. At this point, a victory for the current prime minister and his party in 2026 appears more likely – especially if the war in Ukraine can be ended. However, in the swiftly evolving landscape, making a definitive prediction is difficult.
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