The Baltic states are increasingly concerned that a potential ceasefire in Ukraine could sharply raise security risks for the region by giving Moscow time to rearm and reposition its forces, The Financial Times reports.
The defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania warn that Russia is unlikely to stop at Ukraine. “We all understand that when the war in Ukraine will be stopped, Russia will redistribute its forces very quickly,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.
His Lithuanian counterpart, Dovile Šakalienė, echoed the concern. “Let’s not have any illusions. Let’s not lie to ourselves that Russia is going to be done after Ukraine,” she said. “Russia will use this time following a ceasefire to speed up its military capabilities. They already have a huge, battlefield-trained army, which is going to get even bigger.”
Pevkur estimates that of the 600,000 Russian troops currently in Ukraine, roughly half could be redeployed. “These men will not go back to different parts of Russia to harvest the corn or do something else because the salary they are getting in the army is like five to 10 times more than what they could get in their hometown,” he said.
FT notes that the Baltic countries are especially alarmed by the upcoming Zapad military exercises — large-scale drills held every four years — set to take place this fall near their borders in Russia and Belarus.
The Baltic defense ministers emphasize that the redeployment of any NATO troops from their countries — even to enforce a ceasefire in Ukraine — would jeopardize their own security. They have pushed back against such proposals from allies, FT reports.
### ‘We cannot change our neighbor’ Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur on the threat of Putin’s Russia and preparing for the worst### ‘We cannot change our neighbor’ Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur on the threat of Putin’s Russia and preparing for the worst