PHILADELPHIA - So how exactly did we get here - the Miami Heat spending the final two weeks of the season not only having to accept the reality of a third consecutive trip to the play-in round, but also, for the first time, likely having to start that trip from the bottom of the bracket?
As with almost any NBA season - even one now mired at the bottom of the standings - there are select, collective moments that prove to be game-changers.
In the Heat’s case, six moments of season-altering swings, with 18 games in the balance - games that could have kept the Heat in the mix where they thought they’d be, chasing home-court advantage in the first round.
Instead, 0-18 in subplots that torpedoed the best-laid plans of Erik Spoelstra, Pat Riley and those who envisioned something far different as March turned to April.
- The Detroit debacles (0-3): Yes, the Heat won the first of the teams’ three meetings - the third game of the season.
But the remainder of the series against the Pistons, more than against any other opponent, crystallized how everything that could go wrong did go wrong - while also showing the Pistons stepping up to a playoff level.
First was the 123-121 overtime loss Nov. 2 in Detroit, which came after Tyler Herro rallied the Heat back from a 10-point deficit with 3:21 left in regulation during his 18-point fourth quarter. But then, with 1.1 seconds left in overtime, Spoelstra called a timeout he didn’t have, leading to a go-ahead Pistons free throw to decide the game.
Then came a Dec. 16 matchup added after the Heat were eliminated from the in-season tournament. It got even worse. After battling back from a 19-point deficit, the Heat blew an eight-point lead with 2:14 left in overtime to fall 125-124 in Detroit.
From there, the 116-113 home loss on March 19 saw Pistons guard Cade Cunningham bank in the winning 3-pointer with 2.9 seconds remaining.
- The Sacramento screwups (0-2): For all the Kings’ ups and downs this season, their postseason hopes were boosted by a pair of unlikely wins over Miami.
While the Heat blew a 15-point lead during a 111-110 home loss on Nov. 4, they still appeared to secure a game-saving stop when De’Aaron Fox missed an 11-foot jumper with 3.6 seconds left. Problem was, Kings center Domantas Sabonis grabbed the offensive rebound with 2 seconds remaining and scored the go-ahead basket with nine-tenths of a second left.
It got worse on Jan. 6 in Sacramento. The Heat led by 17 with 8:07 left in regulation and were up four with 1:45 remaining in the first overtime - and still stumbled to a 123-118 loss.
- The Butler burden (0-5): The abject indifference of Jimmy Butler, following the Heat’s decision not to offer an extension, loomed over at least five losses (a conservative estimate).
The Dec. 1 loss in Toronto, 119-116, offered a preview when Butler showed little defensive urgency while the Raptors’ R.J. Barrett cruised to 37 points.
Things grew murkier on Dec. 20, when Butler appeared to turn an ankle 7:19 into a 104-97 home loss to the Thunder. He was then listed out with an illness, which he said kept him out of the next five games.
Then came the Jan. 2 home loss to the Pacers, 128-115, when Butler’s disinterest led to a -27 plus-minus and a nine-point outing that prompted the first of three unpaid team suspensions.
A game later, with Butler serving a seven-game suspension, the Heat seemed lost, falling 136-100 on Jan. 4 to the Jazz.
Then came the missed Jan. 22 team flight and another Butler suspension. The Heat lost 125-96 the next night in Milwaukee.
- The fourth failures (0-2): In a season full of fourth-quarter struggles, two losses stood out.
First, a 121-114 loss on Dec. 21 in Orlando, when the Heat blew a 22-point lead entering the final period. They scored just eight points on 2-of-18 shooting in the fourth.
Then came a Feb. 7 loss in Brooklyn, 102-86. The Heat led by 16 but were outscored 31-9 in the fourth quarter, shooting 2 of 21 over the final 12 minutes.
- The streak stingers (0-4): Nothing damaged the Heat’s playoff aspirations more than the 10-game losing streak that ended on Sunday, with four particularly painful defeats during that stretch.
It started on March 5 with a 112-107 loss in Cleveland, where a 17-point lead evaporated and Duncan Robinson’s tying 3-pointer with 17.4 seconds left was negated when he was ruled out of bounds.
Hoping to bounce back, the Heat instead lost 106-104 at home on March 7 to the Timberwolves, with Spoelstra arguing Bam Adebayo was fouled on a 3-point attempt at the buzzer - no call was made.
The next night, March 8, the Heat lost 114-109 to the Bulls at home, giving up an eight-point lead with 8:47 to go.
It got worse March 10, with a 105-102 home loss to the Hornets. In that game, the Heat led 88-77 with 6:47 left.
- Letting go of the rope (0-2): Eventually, the losing seemed to wear down the Heat - and the fight disappeared.
That led to back-to-back blowout losses to end the 10-game slide: 125-91 on March 15 in Memphis, and 116-95 on March 17 in New York.
So when did it all go wrong, leading to a No. 10 play-in seed staring them in the face?
The truth is - rather frequently.