Tibet remains a major impediment to the improvement of India-China relations, as the Tibetan government-in-exile, led by the Dalai Lama, is based in Dharamshala. China perceives that India provides tacit support to Tibetan dissidents, thereby undermining its national interests. As a result, it hardens its stance on the border issue and adopts a more belligerent posture towards India in international forums.
The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, is the symbol of the Tibetan struggle for autonomy and the preservation of its religion and unique culture. He remains the most prominent face of Tibet, respected worldwide, and continues to singlehandedly challenge the legitimacy of China’s occupation of Tibet.
The Dalai Lama, who escaped to India in 1959 at the young age of 23, will turn 90 this July, thereby reigniting speculation about his succession.
In Tibetan tradition, major spiritual leaders such as the Dalai Lama, Panchen Lama, Karmapa, and others—known as tulkus—are believed to be reincarnations, with their successors identified through a unique process of spiritual recognition. According to Buddhist scholars, this process of spiritual recognition of the Dalai Lama is the responsibility of the high lamas of the Gelugpa tradition and the Tibetan government, following the death of the incumbent. The selection process can be lengthy; it took four years to identify the current Dalai Lama.
In this context through a recent statement, the Dalai Lama indicated that his successor as the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism will be born in the “free world,” suggesting areas outside of China. He stated: “Since the purpose of a reincarnation is to carry out the work of the predecessor, the new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world so that the traditional mission of the Dalai Lama – that is, to be the voice for universal compassion, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism—will continue.”
He urged his followers to reject any successor chosen by Beijing. This declaration is part of his latest book, 'Voice for the Voiceless', released in the US and the UK recently, in which he emphasizes the continuation of the fight for Tibetan freedom, regardless of his passing.
The Chinese spokesperson of the foreign ministry was quick to retort and through an official release stated that “Dalai Lama has no right to represent the people of Tibet.” She added that the reincarnation of Dalai Lama’s successor will be managed by the Chinese government as per the procedure which has been specified by the State Administration for Religious Affairs (SARA).
It is thus evident that this battle for succession will be intensely contested by China, as was the case with the 11th Panchen Lama—the second-highest spiritual leader in the Tibetan religious hierarchy. When the tormented and controversial 10th Panchen Lama passed away in 1990, his successor, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, was identified by the Dalai Lama in 1995. However, the Chinese government placed him under house arrest, and he has not been seen since. Instead, they appointed Gyaincain Norbu as the Panchen Lama of their own choosing. While he has not been accepted by the Tibetan people as the rightful Panchen Lama, the fact remains that a revered institution has been effectively marginalised by the Chinese.
Nevertheless, as the officially endorsed Panchen Lama, Gyaincain Norbu is likely to play a significant role in the spiritual recognition process of the next Dalai Lama. So, we may have two Dalai Lamas after the passing of Tenzin Gyatso—a situation that is not in the long-term interest of the Tibetan people. This would effectively create two Tibets: one under the control and confines of China, and another outside its borders, with the chasm between the two continuing to widen. It is quite possible that the Dalai Lama of the free world may emerge as the more powerful voice of the Tibetan people. However, the battle for succession will inevitably take its toll and weaken the Tibetan cause. This, in turn, will accelerate the process of Sinicization—eroding Tibet's identity as a nation, and diluting its religion and culture.
Other than Tibet and China, the controversy surrounding the Dalai Lama has significant implications primarily for India—especially if the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation is found in India. It faces a Hobson’s choice between supporting the Dalai Lama or siding with the Chinese. The first option will cast a continuing shadow on India-China relations, with the possibility of further deterioration; the second offers no visible benefits, only the prospect of a stronger and more assertive China.
Indian policymakers thus need to take a pragmatic view of the situation and explore all viable possibilities, including efforts toward a possible reconciliation between the Dalai Lama and the Chinese. It is quite possible that the next Dalai Lama’s presence in Lhasa may serve India’s interests better than his continued presence in Dharamshala.
Major General Gajinder Singh is a retired senior officer of the Indian Army with a distinguished career spanning over 36 years. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.