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The Iranian regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers his Eid al-Fitr speech in Tehran on March 31, 2025
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The Iranian regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a speech on March 31, 2025, during Eid al-Fitr prayers in Tehran, signaling once again that his primary concern lies not with foreign threats but with internal rebellion.
Khamenei dismissed the possibility of foreign military strikes against the regime, stating, “We are not very confident and do not consider it likely that external forces will act with hostility. But if they do, they will certainly receive a firm and reciprocal blow.” His remarks come just a day after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran would face unprecedented bombing if it did not reach a nuclear agreement with the United States.
However, Khamenei’s speech focused significantly more on the threat of domestic unrest. Referring to potential internal dissent, he stated, “If the enemies think they can create sedition inside the country, the Iranian people themselves will respond.” This is a recurring theme in Khamenei’s rhetoric, underscoring his fear that growing popular discontent could destabilize his regime.
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Regime’s Survival Threatened by Domestic Crisis
Khamenei’s emphasis on internal threats aligns with recent warnings by regime-affiliated experts. Taghi Azad Armaki, a state-linked sociologist, recently stated, “Whether we go to war or make peace with the world, in the not-too-distant future, we will face multiple social protests.” He added, “We are in an emergency situation. Parts of society are ready to revolt because they can no longer wait for conditions to improve. Even if we do not enter a war, the possibility of social upheavals remains.”
Similarly, regime-affiliated economists have warned of worsening economic conditions. Mehdi Pazouki, speaking on March 29, acknowledged the regime’s economic bankruptcy, stating, “When you listen to parliamentary discussions, they talk about a 1 trillion toman budget deficit for this year. That means higher inflation. Ordering the Central Bank to print money means increased liquidity.” He warned that these policies would lead to “higher inflation and reduced purchasing power.”
Mahmoud Jam-Saz, a regime-linked economist, warned that Iran’s economy is collapsing under the weight of systemic corruption, misguided policies, and severe budget deficits, noting that the country’s currency has hit its lowest global ranking. He attributed the crisis to the regime’s failure to implement structural reforms and its reliance on excessive money printing, which has fueled runaway inflation and diminished purchasing power.
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Increased Militaristic Rhetoric
In recent weeks, the IRGC and other military officials have intensified their belligerent rhetoric, showcasing missile cities and boasting about the regime’s military capabilities. The Tehran Times, on March 30, claimed that the regime’s missile forces across all underground “missile cities” are now installed on launchers and prepared to fire. This display of strength is aimed at projecting power and reassuring the regime’s demoralized forces.
The IRGC’s statements align with Khamenei’s speech. “Our positions are the same as before; the enmity of America and the Zionist regime remains unchanged,” Khamenei declared, while calling Israel a “terrorist” state that must be eliminated.
The Real Threat: A Popular Revolution
While Khamenei projects strength against external threats, his repeated emphasis on the danger of internal unrest reveals a regime increasingly rattled by the potential of popular uprisings. Economic collapse, systemic corruption, and brutal repression have fueled nationwide protests, with various sectors of society — from laborers and farmers to women and students — voicing their grievances.
Analysts suggest Khamenei’s speech is an acknowledgment that the most significant threat to the clerical regime’s survival is not foreign powers, but the Iranian people themselves.