There’s starting to be some extra pressure when putting together the Kansas City Star Chiefs Mock Draft 1.0.
Two years ago, my former colleague Herbie Teope correctly predicted the Chiefs’ first-round selection of Kansas State defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah before it happened. Then last year, it wasn’t a perfect pick, but our 1.0 had BYU offensive tackle Kingsley Suamataia going to the Chiefs; that ended up taking place in the second round instead.
It’s not the first time the Star’s initial crystal ball has been accurate. In 2022, The Star’s first mock draft also had defensive end George Karlaftis going to the Chiefs with one of the team’s first-round picks.
So, where are we putting our bets down this year?
Today, we present the first of four mock drafts for the Chiefs’ current lineup of selections.
And though it’s impossible to predict the future or know precisely how Chiefs general manager Brett Veach and his staff evaluate players, it’s time to put it on the record how we think the upcoming April 24-26 NFL Draft in Green Bay might turn out.
Round 1 (31st overall): Edge Nic Scourton, Texas A&M
I’ve been consistently on the record lately saying I think the Chiefs will lean defensive line over offensive line with their first-round pick, and getting Scourton in this spot would make lots of sense.
Scourton — ranked 31st on Pro Football Focus’ Big Board — would add some much-needed pass-rushing depth for the Chiefs at a position that is difficult to address in free agency. His draft trajectory, according to Grinding The Mocks, also appears to be slipping a bit, which should put him in the Chiefs’ range at 31.
Maybe there are more tea leaves to read here, too. Chiefs defensive line coach Joe Cullen recently went down to Texas A&M’s Pro Day, which gave him more of an opportunity to speak with Scourton (and teammates too ... potential spoiler alert).
Veach has spoken openly about how the depth in this year’s draft is on the defensive line. Look for the Chiefs to take advantage of that with their first pick, where it’d be tough to pass on Scourton if he’s still available.
Round 2 (63rd overall): Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota
Maybe this would require a small trade-up to get done. And the Chiefs certainly haven’t been shy about doing that in the past, moving up in each of the last two seasons to take a left-tackle prospect with a top-three-round pick.
The 6-foot-6, 330-pound Ersery checks too many boxes not to take if he makes it to the late second round. Born in KC and a Ruskin High graduate, Ersery gets high marks for his athleticism and size.
Veach has promised this offseason to “throw bodies” at his team’s left-tackle spot in search of short-term and long-term solutions, and Ersery could help in both areas while giving the Chiefs some more depth at a needed spot.
One other thing: The Chiefs reportedly had a top-30 visit with Ersery in March. If Ersery’s stock continues to drop as Grinding The Mocks indicates, he could be a nice pickup for the Chiefs late in Round 2.
Round 3 (66th overall): DL Shemar Turner, Texas A&M
The Chiefs seem to favor drafting front-seven defenders from SEC schools (with Chris Jones, Nick Bolton, Willie Gay, Joshua Kaindoh as recent examples), and if Turner falls to this point, the Chiefs would have to consider taking him.
Turner — 55th on Pro Football Focus’ Big Board — was a versatile player on the Aggies’ defensive line and could slip later than a typical draft simply because of the depth at that position this year.
KC certainly could use another body on the interior next to Jones. And the Chiefs should have a good scouting report on Turner given Cullen’s close watch of him in recent months.
Continuing to re-sign D-line veterans to one-year deals will only work in KC for so long. The Chiefs need to restock this spot with younger players at some point, and adding Turner would be a good start.
Round 3 (95th overall): WR Tez Johnson, Oregon
The Chiefs have a “type” at receiver, based on past draft history. They love quick guys who post quick 10-yard splits, while not caring much about a player’s height.
If Veach and KC would like to double down on believing they can pull the best out of these wideouts like they did with Xavier Worthy last season, Oregon’s Tez Johnson would be an enticing option at the end of Round 3.
Perhaps no player in the draft would test the Chiefs’ instincts more than this one. Johnson, who is 104th on Pro Football Focus’ Big Board, is just 5-10 and 165 pounds but wins often with his speed and separation skills while also earning praise for his football intelligence.
It will be hard for a team like the Chiefs to feel like they ever have too many weapons at receiver. And given Worthy’s success with the team last year — along with Hollywood Brown remaining only on a one-year deal — one could see the Chiefs trusting themselves to get the best out of Johnson while thinking he’ll fit their team better than any other.
Round 4 (133rd overall): RB Bhayshul Tuten, Virginia Tech
The Chiefs need running-back depth, and it’s hard for me to ignore Veach’s past when it comes to where he might look for fresh legs.
In the past, Veach seems to have favored “Speed Score,” a metric that factors in how fast a running back is compared to his size. Cases in point: 2022’s leader in college Speed Score was future Chiefs player Isiah Pacheco (seventh-round pick), and 2023’s top mark was Deneric Prince, who joined KC as an undrafted free agent.
So who leads in the stat this year?
Let’s introduce you to Virginia Tech’s Bhayshul Tuten. The 5-11, 209-pound back ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and appears to be the type of home-run threat the Chiefs desperately need after a season with almost no explosive runs.
There are questions about Tuten. His ball security hasn’t been great, and his overall vision has been questioned at times.
As part of a deep running-back class, however, he seems like a good fit with the Chiefs — and also the type of player Veach typically gravitates toward.
Round 7 (226th overall): OT Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan, Oregon State
We’ve reached the “dart-throw” portion of the NFL Draft, and it reasons that KC could take a shot here on physically gifted offensive linemen whom they might not be able to sign as undrafted free agents otherwise.
Towering 6-9 offensive tackle Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan could fit the mold. Though he probably still needs to add weight, Christian-Lichtenhan gets high marks for his movement ability and fits as a nice developmental player for a Chiefs offensive line in need of potential longer-term solutions.
Christian-Lichtenhan also had a reported top-30 visit with the Chiefs, so we at least have some indication the team could be intrigued by his potential.
Round 7 (251st overall): CB Melvin Smith Jr., Southern Arkansas
What would a Chiefs draft be without the team looking to grab cornerback value in the seventh round, like they did previously with Jaylen Watson and Nazeeh Johnson?
Let’s go with Melvin Smith Jr. here, who reportedly ran a 4.38-second 40 at his pro day and earned a Chiefs visit.
Smith participated in the Reese’s Senior Bowl — a game the Chiefs scout heavily with previous alums like Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith.
KC could use some cornerback depth — especially in the slot — and Smith could be a good player to secure before he becomes available to 31 other teams.
Round 7 (257th overall): OG Bryce Cabeldue, Kansas
The Chiefs, barring a trade, get to select Mr. Irrelevant this year, and we’ll say here they give a local-college kid that honor.
Cabeldue recently tested well at the Big 12 Pro Day, and though he played tackle at Kansas, he profiles better as an athletic guard at the next level.
KC could use the depth and competition. Suamataia is expected to be the team’s left guard next season, but he remains unproven. Trey Smith also could be a long-term answer at right guard with a contract extension, but the two sides are still working on a deal there.
Cabeldue had elite speed marks with a 4.95-second 40, and he profiles as the type of player the Chiefs would love to try to develop into a rotation player down the line.
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Jesse Newell — he’s won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously has been named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors — covers the Chiefs for The Star. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.