The Opta supercomputer expects Arsenal to continue their sensational home league record against Fulham, but can Marco Silva’s side produce a shock? We look ahead to Tuesday’s clash with our Arsenal vs Fulham prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Fulham Stats: The Key Insights
Arsenal defeated Fulham in 64.1% of the pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
The Gunners have never lost a home league game against Fulham across 31 matches (W24 D7).
No team have scored as many goals via substitutes as Fulham (13) this season in the Premier League.
Arsenal host Fulham at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday looking to close the gap between themselves and league leaders Liverpool to nine points in the Premier League table. The Gunners have the advantage of playing 24 hours earlier than Arne Slot’s side, who face a tricky Merseyside derby against Everton on Wednesday night.
In truth, with such a gap between the two sides and only nine matchdays remaining, the Premier League title race is most probably over, but Arsenal will be looking to finish the season strongly and secure a top-two finish.
Arsenal had won more points by this stage of the last two seasons (72 in 2022-23 and 65 in 2023-24) than they have after 29 games this term (58), but one area they have impressed is in defence. No side have conceded as few goals (24) or allowed opponents a lower expected goals total (25.0) than Mikel Arteta’s men this season, while only Liverpool and Nottingham Forest (12) have kept more clean sheets (11).
They have restricted their opponents to less than 0.50 xG in 11 of their 29 Premier League games this season, at least three more times than any other side has managed. Indeed, of the other 19 Premier League sides, seven have had their lowest xG in a match in the league this season come against Arsenal, including Fulham in this season’s reverse fixture in December (0.16).
The Gunners’ matches this season have been tight overall, with games involving them producing a league-low average of 23.6 shots per game. Fulham rank fourth in this ranking (24.7), suggesting this midweek fixture will probably be a tight affair.
Arsenal have performed well in London derbies in 2024-25, winning the most points (20) in these games. But Fulham have picked up four London derby wins already this season – only on three previous occasions have they won more in a single campaign across their Football League history (five in 1931-32, 1947-48 and 2000-01).
They didn’t have much fortune in their latest competitive London derby, however. While Arsenal had a welcome weekend off, Fulham suffered a disappointing 3-0 home defeat to Crystal Palace in their FA Cup quarter-final at Craven Cottage.
Their recent Premier League form is more encouraging, though. Fulham have won five of their last eight Premier League games (L3), more than their previous 15 beforehand (W4 D7 L4) and they’ve picked up three wins in their last four top-flight away games.
Marco Silva has utilised his bench well this season, too. Thirteen of their Premier League goals have been scored by substitutes, which is the most in the 2024-25 campaign and not far off a seasonal record, either. Only four sides have ever had more in a single season in the competition: Newcastle in 2023-24 (14), Arsenal in 2009-10 (15), Man City in 2011-12 (15), and Liverpool in 2015-16 (15).
This will be Arsenal’s first competitive match in 16 days, since beating Chelsea 1-0 in the league thanks to Mikel Merino’s first-half header. That break has enabled them to get Bukayo Saka back on the training pitch, and while this game will probably be too early for him to regain a place in the starting XI, Arteta has announced he’s likely to be involved at some point during the game.
Riccardo Calafiori looks set for a spell on the sidelines following an injury sustained while playing for Italy in the international break, while Takehiro Tomiyasu, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are out for the rest of the season.
Fulham will likely start two former Arsenal youngsters in this match, with Emile Smith Rowe and Alex Iwobi having good seasons for the Cottagers. Another former Arsenal winger, Reiss Nelson, will miss out through injury while regular super-sub Harry Wilson is unlikely to recover from his ankle injury in time to make the bench.
Arsenal vs Fulham Head-to-Head
Arsenal will be looking to keep a historic record intact on Tuesday. They’ve never lost a home league game against Fulham across 31 such encounters, winning 24 and drawing seven. That’s the most home games one side has played against another without ever losing in English Football League history.
Recent head-to-head form suggests Fulham may have a chance this week, though. They are unbeaten in their last three league games against Arsenal (W1 D2), only once having a longer such run without defeat against the Gunners (four between May 2011 and November 2012).
The most recent game between these two sides came in December, when the Gunners came from a goal down to draw 1-1 at Craven Cottage. Raúl Jiménez scored the opener against the run of play, before William Saliba netted following an Arsenal corner in the 52nd minute. The Gunners thought they’d sealed a comeback win late on, but Saka saw his goal disallowed for offside following a VAR intervention.
Fulham 1-1 Arsenal Stats
Arsenal vs Fulham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer expects an Arsenal home win on Tuesday, as they defeated Fulham in 64.1% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Fulham picked up an away win 15.2% of the time, while the draw occurred in 20.7% of sims.
Arsenal vs Fulham Prediction Opta
Arsenal vs Fulham Predicted Lineups
Arsenal vs Fulham Predicted Lineup
Arsenal vs Fulham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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