Image: Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat talks to Kel'el Ware #7 against the Philadelphia 76ers in the first half at the Wells Fargo Center on March 29, 2025, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Tyler Herro and Kel'el Ware confer about the Miami Heat's potential. postseason scenarios
Contrary to popular belief, the Miami Heat are in the thick of the NBA Eastern Conference playoff race. And while a deep postseason run is a pipe dream for a Heat team that is currently clinging to the tenth seed, there's plenty to root for.
Most notably, draft pick maneuvering. Let's be honest: If the Heat were to somehow return to the NBA Finals this season, Disney would immediately make a movie about it.
Thanks to trades with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets that, let's say, haven't exactly aged like fine wine, the Heat owe each of those teams a first-round pick. When those picks convey, it all comes down to one key factor: whether Miami makes the playoffs this year.
See where this is going? If you thought the Heat limping into the playoffs to get swept by the first-seed Cleveland Cavaliers was a waste of time, think again.
On the flip side, Heat fans should also be watching how the Golden State Warriors finish the season. Because thanks to the Jimmy Butler trade, their fate also affects Miami’s draft picks.
We know it's a lot to take in. Thankfully, a Reddit user named lopea182 has put every scenario into a handy chart for visual learners.
Now that you've reviewed the scenarios, let's discuss what Heat fans ought to root for in these final two weeks of the 2024-25 season. Each outcome comes with its attendant positives and negatives. Let's cover them all.
click to enlarge Tyler Herro, clad in a black "Heat Culture" jersey, holding a basketball, and looking fierce
Tyler Herro leads Heat Culture forward, post-Jimmy Butler.
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Best Case: Miami Makes the Playoffs, Pays Up Picks
First things first: The Heat owe a top-14 protected first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, per terms of the trade that brought Jimmy Butler to Miami back in 2019. Miami would still convey the pick if they win two Play-In Tournament games and make the playoffs.
If the Heat fail to advance, they will keep the pick but owe unprotected first-rounders to the Thunder in 2026 and the Hornets in 2028, the latter stemming from last year's acquisition of Terry Rozier (which now looks like one of the worst trades in franchise history). This also pushes back the timeline in which they can trade future first-round picks, thanks to the Stepien Rule, which prohibits teams from sending future first-rounders in consecutive years.
On a different note, if the Heat miss the playoffs, they'll add a lottery-pick-level player to a team in desperate need of immediate, athletic, and, most important, cheap help. That's precisely what a 2025 Top 13 pick would provide.
Important to note: According to NBA Tankathon, the Heat have the 28th-toughest remaining schedule in the NBA. That means the odds are on the Heat's side to climb higher than the tenth seed in the Play-In, bettering their chances to advance.
What to Root For: Barring a miracle, the Heat will be in the Play-In Tournament. Root for them to advance.
click to enlarge Jimmy Butler III #10 of the Golden State Warriors and Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat on the court during the first quarter at Kaseya Center on March 25, 2025, in Miami, Florida.
Bring the petty: Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo face off against one another at the Kaseya Center.
The Miami Heat acquired a Top 10 protected 2025 first-round draft pick from the Golden State Warriors in the recent Jimmy Butler trade. That means the ideal sweet spot for the Heat would be if the Warriors — currently the seventh seed in the West — finish in seventh place or worse, take part in the Play-In Tournament but miss the playoffs and wind up sending the Heat a late lottery pick.
On the flip side, if the Warriors clinch a playoff berth and win a round or two, the Heat are looking at a mid-20s to late first-round pick.
Important note: As of Sunday, according to NBA Tankathon, the Golden State Warriors have a Top 10 most difficult remaining schedule in the NBA, including games against the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets.
What to Root For: Root for the Warriors to make the Play-In Tournament, lose twice, and miss the playoffs.