Premier League Preview: AFC Bournemouth
Written by ad_wilkin on Monday, 31st Mar 2025 17:29
Survival is still mathematically possible but the general consensus following defeat to Nottingham Forest is that it will now require a herculean effort to overturn the nine-point (effectively 10 due to goal difference) deficit.
With nine games left, Town need to win at least four but with Wolves also facing Leicester in that time it will likely be five.
Their next opportunity to get some points on the board will be against Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth who have seen a European charge falter in recent weeks with defeats to Brentford, Brighton and Wolves alongside a draw with Tottenham.
They come into this one having faced Manchester City in the FA Cup on Sunday so may be lacking freshness following an all-action display that saw Kepa Arrizabalaga save a penalty before Evanilson bundled over the line to give the Cherries the lead. They faded dramatically in the second half and City capitalised to end up winning 2-1.
Even with that, the Cherries will present a big threat to Town with a well-oiled midfield block and a direct attacking style. They have the lowest number of passes per attacking sequence at 4.46 and the highest number of tackles attempted in the midfield third with 247 with both Tyler Adams and Ryan Christie excellent ball-winning midfielders and Antoine Semenyo having mastered pressing high and nipping in to win the ball down the left-hand side.
The home defeat to the Cherries is a case study that sums up Town’s season. They were dominant for much of the first half, had 18 shots, forcing four saves and took the lead with a Conor Chaplin special.
Bournemouth failed to deal with a long throw into the box, the ball fell to Cameron Burgess and the big Aussie laid it on a plate for Chaplin to sidefoot home an arrowed left-footed finish.
What might have been had Cameron Burgess’s header from an in-swinging Sam Szmodics corner been given. Instead, it was ruled out for the lightest of touches on the keeper from Liam Delap as once again fine margins did not go Town’s way.
Burgess proved his defensive abilities later on with a stunning tackle on Justin Kluivert after Sam Morsy had been guilty of holding onto the ball for way too long and got it pinched off of his toes
It wasn’t until the 87th minute when Town came undone, Milos Kerkez finding Dango Ouattara with a pinpoint ball in behind. The Burkina Faso international was quicker of both foot and mind to get to the ball ahead of an onrushing Muric to nip the ball away from him and square it into the box in one movement for Enes Unal to head in from close range off of the unfortunate Burgess.
That gave Bournemouth even more confidence to get a winner, Kerkez again got the ball down the left and fed David Brooks inside. Brooks found Billing, who quickly switched it to Semenyo, who was now playing on the right. Semenyo sucked Leif Davis in before playing a lovely lay-off for Billing’s overlapping run.
Billing drove the ball across to Brooks, who snapped a shot away which Muric was able to save but Bournemouth were smothering the Town box and his save was only able to find Outtarra who calmly put into an empty net for a winner.
The game at Portman Road saw Town attempt their most shots all season with 18 but only five of them found the target and they only generated 1.3 xG as Bournemouth defended their box well.
Defensively Town did well in the middle of the park, winning 12 tackles in total but four errors was a season high and ended up proving costly.
Those errors led to Bournemouth generating 3.2 xG from a staggering 22 shots, stats that are their third and second-highest all season respectively. They blocked seven of Town’s shots and ten of their passes with Ilia Zabarnyi putting in one of his best performances, winning six out of six tackles attempted, five of which were in the midfield third as he locked Liam Delap down.
Milos Kerkez
This may be a bold statement, but I believe Kerkez to be the best left-back in the league right now and the Hungarian is still just 21 years of age. He has five assists and two goals so far this Premier League season.
His engine down that left-hand side of the pitch is his biggest asset as he’s able to cover so much ground to contribute to Bournemouth’s attacks without leaving them too exposed at the back.
His running comes both with the ball (2.68 progressive carries per game) as well as without it and part of his recovery skills are the ability to intercept the ball before counter-attacks become too dangerous with 1.12 interceptions per game. He rarely loses the ball when taking on his man with a success rate of 65.2%
Dean Huijsen
The 19-year-old Spaniard is one of the hottest prospects in the Premier League right now and will no doubt attract all kinds of interest in the summer with his release fee set at £50 million.
His defensive numbers stack up against the best in Europe with 2.16 interceptions, 1.66 blocks and 6.73 clearances per game, but it’s with the ball that he makes a real difference. He makes 5.53 passes into the final third per game. That’s more than any Town player has made, with Sam Morsy coming closest with 5.41.
He’s aggressive with his pressing with more of his tackles coming in the midfield third than the defensive third and he’s also comfortable carrying the ball out of defence. He’s the full package and will become a mainstay in Spain’s defence for a long time to come having made his debut in the latest international break.
Justin Kluivert
It’s been an incredible season for the Dutchman with 20 goal contributions so far (13 goals, eight assists) in league and cup. Eighteen of those have come in the League with puts him eighth in the company of Salah, Haaland, Isak, Wood, Mbeumo, Palmer and Watkins.
That haul has included two hat-tricks (against Wolves and Newcastle) and six penalties (with 100% conversion rate). His free role in behind the main striker sees him get plenty of the ball and with his excellent dribbling ability, vision to see and pass and bravery to take on shots he’s become the all-round Premier League package.
Kieran McKenna will have had plenty of time to come up with a game plan for this one and will have been given food for thought by some of the international fixtures.
Jaden Philogene had an excellent game on the left for the England U21s, Julio Enciso scored a screamer for Paraguay and George Hirst made his Scotland debut having scored off the bench late on against Nottingham Forest.
Despite all of that, I don’t think there will be too many major differences from the last game. Cameron Burgess could replace Jacob Greaves, who struggled against Anthony Elanga in Town’s last match, but other than that it could well remain unchanged. Jack Clarke for Enciso is the only change than may happen.
If the front three remains the same, it will be interesting to see which combination they start in. Philogene off the left, Hutchinson off the right and Enciso through the middle was far more effective in the second half against Forest, so McKenna could well start them in that set up.
For Bournemouth, Huijsen and Kerkez will both be fresh having been suspended for the FA Cup quarter-final against Manchester City and will slot back in for this one in a line-up that has stayed fairly consistent.
The injury crisis that they have been going through has abated a bit, although captain Lewis Cook is still likely to be filling in at right-back.
Dango Ouattara and Davids Brooks are both in good form and Brooks looks set to fill in for the injured Marcus Tavernier again whilst Ouattara provides a great option off the bench.
Adam Smith and Alex Scott also got minutes in returns from injuries off the bench against Manchester City.
After losses to Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest where Town were competitive but once again didn’t have enough to get the result it’s now widely accepted that we’re playing for pride. Saying that, Town do have a bunch of players in good form.
What might have been had Alex Palmer been in goal the whole season, if Kalvin Phillips and Jens Cajuste had the fitness to be playing in midfield week in week out and if Hirst had been fit enough to keep making impacts of the bench and replacing Delap when he was tiring.
This is the strongest the Town side has been for a long time and with Bournemouth having exerted themselves against Manchester City and not having the deepest squad, I think Town could come away with something here. I’m going for a 2-1 win on the coast.
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