You may fire when ready.
49ERS
BROCK PURDY – We'll see whether the Niners and Purdy can compromise and when. Recent history says not until late August. His agent is trying to leverage his lottery ticket in Purdy and that will make it difficult to reach a deal.
Timing will be key, the out for Purdy should coincide with moving on from Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. I’m anticipating a three-year out for Purdy, then after the 2027 season the Niners could reboot to a new GM, coach, and QB.
BRANDON AIYUK & KYLE SHANAHAN – Shanahan put the team in a tough spot by insisting they keep Aiyuk. A Pittsburgh deal would have set them up to take a tackle or center in a loaded OL draft last year. Now they are looking for a tackle in a loaded DL draft this year - and just failed to unload Aiyuk’s contract. New GM in 2028, my mantra.
AIYUK STAYING – Lynch said at the Owner’s Meetings that Aiyuk is staying. Therefore, I don’t draft a WR, particularly if they plan on taking Harold Fannin Jr. The Niners will probably take a receiver though.
DRE GREENLAW – Mic drop quote from The Denver Post. Greenlaw’s adopted father told him, “Hey, man, you stay in San Francisco, you’re Scottie Pippen. And Fred Warner is MJ. Go be frickin’ MJ.” There it is. That’s why Greenlaw left.
THE DRAFT
ASSUME THE POSITION – In 55 years of following the Niners I have never seen The Faithful this invested in forcing a position in the draft. Give me trenches or I’ll give you death. Lots of lines in the sand and “that’s a luxury pick.” Taking the best player available is banned. “They can’t do that this year!” Sure they can. New GM in 2028, say it with me.
THE FORCE IS STRONG WITH YOU – They forced a position with Mike McGlinchey in 2018. In the 11 picks after him, six All-Pros, one All-Conference player, and two Pro Bowlers, plus Lamar Jackson later in the draft. The Niners entered a gold mine and came out with coal, that’s why you don’t force a position. Focus on greatness, get playmakers. “They took a tackle, trenches!” Yeah, but it’s Kelvin Banks Jr. “Trenches baby!”
AND THE OSCAR FOR BPA GOES TO – “Ok Sparky, who’s the BPA pick?” Jahdae Barron. “And that’s a good thing because…?” Because on offense the division goes through Puka Nacua and Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Barron made Jeremiah Smith disappear in the college semis, and his missed tackle rate is 9.5% compared to Will Johnson’s 20.8%. Plus five picks, 9 pbu’s, and 4.39.
WILL THEY TAKE HIM? – I doubt it. Historically this regime underinvests in DB. Left to their own devices Lynch and Shanahan do the usual, but this year I expect they’ll defer to Robert Saleh for picks on defense, he’s a wild card. Unlike Shanahan, Saleh will play the kids because he won’t have a choice. This year’s defense could have up to five rookies with high reps.
BACK TO REALITY – Fans and media advocate trading down. Easily done in the fan crack mock draft simulators, but a long shot back on reality. The reason every team from 11-19 wants to trade down is the same reason nobody trades up. The talent outside the top ten isn’t blue chip. As Daniel Jeremiah of nfl.com says, this is a starter draft, not a star draft.
WHO WILL THE 49ERS DRAFT?
CH-CH-CH-CHANGES – A week ago the top ten had one QB projected, now it has three rumored. Happens every year the QB-needy teams panic late. So do any Niner targets fall to 11? As currently projected nationally and by local reporters no. Mason Graham, Jalon Walker, Armand Membou, and Will Campbell are all drafted in the top ten. Some key players do drop.
FEMI-DARKNESS – The Niners fell in love with UCLA edge Femi Oladejo at Mobile and are very high on him. The problem is the league is also in love, he’s up to seven 30 visits now with projections as high as late first. I had the Niners taking him at 75 in my mocks, that’s gone now and likely Oladejo along with it.
TE2 LOCKED – I questioned bringing in Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr. for a 30 visit since 75 would go to Oladejo and that’s around the projected range for Fannin. If Oladejo is gone, the Fannin visit now makes sense. However, 75 is still an open slot, hence the 30 visit for another TE in Texas Tech’s Jalin Conyers. Safe to project that one of them will be drafted. Conyers is expected to be taken in the 5th round.
11 – Oladejo is the edge blueprint, set the edge against the run and convert speed to power as a pass rusher. That leads to Georgia’s Mykel Williams at 11, a long run defender but a work in progress as a pass rusher. He’s young and inconsistent, won’t turn 21 until the end of June, prototypical size at 6-5/260. Played hurt for most of the season.
Other edges: all traits/minimal production Shemar Stewart of Texas A&M, high iq technician Donovan Ezeiruaku of Boston College, along with Mike Green of Marshall and Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr. facing character flags. Defensive tackle picks would all be reaches. The D line 30 visits will add clarity.
I would trade up for Membou if he falls to 8 or 9, but if I put money down right now it would be on the Niners picking Williams at 11. The draft is a moving target week to week.
43 – The Niners met with Oregon tackle Josh Conerly Jr. in a formal interview at Indianapolis and at his pro day in Eugene. Conerly has 30 visits with seven teams so far and five of them pick from 25 to 41, he would be unlikely to fall to San Francisco at 43. If the Niners want him they will have to trade up, probably into the late first. Plan B would include DT, RB, DB, and Safety.
75 – Presumably this is now Fannin. This is a prime slot for Edge and a good one for DT. 75 also has great value in the back seven.