Governments worldwide are scrambling to make sense of a volatile new world where the only certainty is uncertainty. And Australia is no exception. Last week’s federal budget brought forward defence spending while reprioritising development funding in response to recent USAID cuts. The release of the unclassified 2024 Independent Intelligence Review the week before also underscored the scale of the challenges ahead, with more than $44 million allocated to updating Australia’s intelligence community.
Yet for all these announcements, a fairly crucial element remains missing: a broader strategy to actually navigate this shifting world order. Granted, last month the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade released the Australia in the World – 2025 Snapshot, acknowledging the unprecedented changes in the world and providing an overview of Australia’s existing diplomatic and international engagement efforts. However, it fell short of outlining a strategic vision.
Australia’s last foreign policy white paper was in 2017 during Donald Trump’s first administration – the equivalent of four decades ago in foreign policy years. Australia’s since gone from friend to enemy to frenemy with China and the experience of economic coercion, launched AUKUS, and now faces the need to reassess its relationship with America. Meanwhile, the global order isn’t just transforming but is being rewritten. There’s a return to great power politics where might makes right. Strategic competition is intensifying, international institutions are cracking. The world no longer divides neatly into allies and adversaries. Despite sovereignty being the word of the hour, hybrid war and foreign interference are on the rise. Meanwhile, the world faces global catastrophic risks from emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and the urgent existential threat of climate change.
Against this backdrop, Australia’s relative power is diminishing. The dynamics of the global order are no longer in Australia’s favour. Many of the core assumptions that once underpinned Australia’s foreign policy no longer hold true. It’s going to become harder to protect and uphold Australia’s interests in the years ahead.
Australia needs a new foreign policy framework. As Australia hurtles towards a federal election, the next government – Labor or Coalition – must commit to commissioning a new Foreign Policy White Paper.
Beyond strategy, white papers also serve an unsexy but important bureaucratic function. They provide the all-important policy authority that government functions on.
White papers are major undertakings and are – quite legitimately – often criticised as costly, slow and outdated by the time they’re published. It could be argued that policymakers should already be thinking strategically, internal classified assessments already inform government decision-making, and the rapid pace of global change makes long-term planning challenging. Yet the world has clearly changed in ways that demand Australia take stock and consider how it may continue to change in the years ahead.
A white paper provides the opportunity to think about Australia’s strategy from first principles. Strategy is not something Australia does well. There are fundamental differences between international engagement, the art of diplomacy, foreign policy, and strategy – yet Australia too often conflates them, or leaves it to Defence.
A white paper would also offer a crucial opportunity to think about how Australia navigates the world. In an increasingly contested and transactional ecosystem, where Australia wields less influence and struggles to protect its interests, how can Australia be more strategic, creative, and agile? How and where can it build influence? Where does Australia have – or can it create – leverage? The very volatility of the international environment presents opportunities – if Australia is prepared to seize them. Australia must also become far more sophisticated in how it frames its interests and positions, and competes in the global battle of ideas – whether with regional partners, global institutions, or even domestic audiences. Why does Australia matter, and why should others want to work with us?
Not doing this strategic thinking and planning will lead to miscalculations in foreign and security policy, missed opportunities, and diminished diplomatic leverage in the future – none of which Australia can afford.
Beyond strategy, white papers also serve an unsexy but important bureaucratic function. They provide the all-important policy authority that government functions on. A white paper – endorsed by Cabinet – would set overarching policy and enable updates to existing frameworks, remits, and institutional structures. It would also provide coherence between Australia’s defence strategy and the proliferation of other international engagement documents. Governments often talk about using all elements of national power to advance Australia’s interests – a white paper provides the mechanism to deliver on that.
It’s also an opportunity to ensure Australia’s foreign policy architecture is fit for purpose. Australia’s foreign policy and diplomatic structures were built for a world that no longer exists. DFAT is underfunded, understaffed and constrained by outdated arrangements. Are funding levels aligned with strategic realities? Does the internal culture truly value outside-the-box thinking? A white paper could take stock of these shortcomings and provide the policy levers for necessary reforms. This is no easy task. Australia cannot control global events but it can – and must – control how it prepares for them by ensuring its institutions and processes are fit and ready for the challenges ahead.
The next government – Labor or Coalition – will inherit a world more unstable than at any point in Australia’s modern history. The question is not whether we need a new foreign policy white paper – it’s why we haven’t already started drafting one.