Canadian PM Mark Carney likely to extend his tenure for a further four years: Polls
ByAnirudh Bhattacharyya
Apr 01, 2025 10:41 AM IST
The Liberals are also gaining from the implosion of the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Indo-Canadian Jagmeet Singh. Voting is going to be held on April 28
Toronto: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney appears en route to extend his tenure as the country’s leader for a further four years, with all polls pointing towards a possible majority for the ruling Liberal Party in the federal election later this month.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney applauds supporters at his campaign office in Nepean, on March 29. (AP)
Liberal Leader Mark Carney applauds supporters at his campaign office in Nepean, on March 29. (AP)
According to a survey released by the non-profit non-partisan Angus Reid Institute (ARI) on Monday, the Liberals continue to enjoy an eight-point advantage over the opposition Conservatives lead by Pierre Poilievre.
The Liberals secured 46% support as against 38% for the Conservatives, a replay of ARI’s poll a week earlier. “In a campaign that has been remarkable for its volatility and dynamism, a new element enters the race: relative stability,” the polling agency noted in a release.
Three months earlier, with Justin Trudeau still Prime Minister, the Liberals were polling at just 11% with the Conservatives at 45%. That remarkable turnaround has come with Trudeau’s resignation and Carney emerging as his successor.
Helping the Liberals are the threats against Canada made by US President Donald Trump. “Carney appears to benefit from a similar ‘two-for-one’ media advantage — garnering coverage both as a party leader and as a counterpoint to Trump. This dual spotlight could prove pivotal as the race unfolds,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said.
Nanos’ latest numbers were featured in the Canadian outlets Globe and Mail and CTV News on Sunday. And those numbers are similar to the ARI figures — with the Liberals at 44% and the rival Conservatives at 36%.
The Liberals are also gaining from the implosion of the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Indo-Canadian Jagmeet Singh. ARI pegged NDP’s support at only seven per cent, and Nanos at 11%.
It was at nine per cent in another poll released on Sunday, from the agency Ipsos. That showed the Liberals leading with 44% versus 38% for the Conservatives.
It’s been a rapid rise for Carney, who was only selected as Liberal leader on March 9 and sworn in as Prime Minister on March 14.
The Liberals have not been in majority territory since 2016, as per ARI data. That was just after Trudeau led the party to a majority in 2015 and formed the government for the first time. However, in the two succeeding elections, in 2019 and 2021, he was unable to repeat that feat and headed minority governments.
Carney will be hoping to change that dynamic on April 28, just four weeks away.
Toronto
Justin Trudeau
Liberal Party
Mark Carney
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