Presented by Lloyds Banking Group
London Playbook
By STEFAN BOSCIA
Good Tuesday morning. This is Stefan Boscia.
DRIVING THE DAY
TERRIBLE TUESDAY: Britons will wake up to a load of tax and bill increases today, and the worst inflationary pressures and economic chaos may be yet to come. No, this is unfortunately not an April Fool’s joke. Council tax and a weighty list of other household bills will rise, which will be partly offset for some by increases to the minimum wage. But today’s real financial pain story (again) is ministers’ increasingly futile last-minute attempts to get a carve-out from Donald Trump’s scattergun tariffs.
I thought we were friends? Ministers and officials are now resigned to the fact that Trump will not give the U.K. a special exemption to Wednesday’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which could lead to taxes being slapped on all British goods entering the U.S. Government officials tell Playbook negotiations over an economic agreement, on things like tech and services, will continue beyond Wednesday as they hope for a carve-out somewhere down the line.
Nah, I’m good: Starmer and co. have been pulling out all the stops to get an exemption — including an offer for Trump to visit Britain in June to sign an economic agreement, according to the Sun’s Harry Cole. He reports that Starmer’s offer was turned down when they spoke over the phone on Sunday, probably leaving the PM in no doubt as to where the U.S. president stands on tariffs.
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This is not normal: To compound the government’s woes, the Telegraph discovered a Sunday night statement from the U.S. State Department that criticized the British government. The paper’s splash reveals Marco Rubio’s department is “concerned about freedom of expression in the United Kingdom” because of a case involving an anti-abortion campaigner.
The story: The State Department said it was “monitoring” the case of Livia Tossici-Bolt, who is on trial accused of breaching an abortion clinic buffer zone. Tossici-Bolt was arrested for holding a sign near a Bournemouth clinic saying: “Here to talk if you want.” Referring to Vice President JD Vance’s recent claims that Britain and Europe are backsliding on free speech, the department said: “It is important that the U.K. respect and protect freedom of expression.”
The killer quote: One person familiar with the U.K.-U.S. trade talks told the Telegraph there can be “no free trade without free speech.” Blimey.
A thought: While many will be sympathetic to Tossici-Bolt, it is surely intolerable for the U.S. to be meddling in such granular domestic affairs of a close ally. Especially when you don’t hear a word from Vance and others about — oh, let’s say — actual widespread freedom of speech restrictions in Hungary or other illiberal democracies that are swooned over by MAGA types.
Nobody’s safe: But the truth is, Starmer probably wouldn’t have gotten an exemption even without this latest attack. The Times’ Steve Swinford and colleagues report British officials reckon Trump wants a “big bang” moment where every country in the world is simultaneously hit by tariffs. “They want to make a theatre of it,” one government figure tells the paper. “They want to have the consistency of saying that they have done everything on the same day. It is a big challenge for us.”
OK, here’s the silver lining: The big question will be what rate of tariff the U.S. chooses to put on the U.K., and whether it ends up more lenient than feared (or than some of our allies). Two U.K. officials said they’ll likely only know when Trump makes his announcement on Wednesday … but the president gave a hint of optimism overnight. “Whatever they charge us, we charge them, but we’re being nicer than they were,” he told hacks. “The numbers will be lower than what they’ve been charging us, and in some cases, maybe substantially lower.” He was talking about the world though, not Britain specifically. Quotes via NBC.
But anyway, back to the gloom: The White House just isn’t that convinced the U.K. has much to offer when it comes to a tech deal, one person close to talks tells POLITICO tech reporter Tom Bristow. There has been much speculation that Starmer is prepared to drop the U.K.’s digital services tax as part of talks, and Tom hears there are three options in play. One is to exempt some sectors from the digital services tax; a second is to increase the threshold at which it kicks in to above £25 million; and a third is to apply it to profits and not revenues.
Fortunate timing: We will get to see Starmer on our telly screens this morning and broadcasters will almost certainly ask about tariffs. Playbook is told to expect clips to drop at around 9 a.m. while he visits a business to mark today’s increases in the “national living wage” a.k.a. the minimum wage for over-20s (up to £12.21 an hour) and minimum wage for 18-to-20-year olds (up to £10 an hour).
Here’s Johnny: No. 10 has also put Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds on the morning broadcast round to deal with the flood of questions about Trump’s tariff armageddon. His full round times are below, as always.
ALSO ON THE AGENDA … for Reynolds and Starmer will be the swathe of increases to bills landing for households all over Britain. People face hikes to energy, water, phone, TV licence and broadband bills from today. Oh, and most households will also face a 4.99 percent hike in council tax from today, too. The Guardian has a good round-up of what it’s calling “awful April.” And POLITICO’s energy team has a read on the political damage Starmer is facing from the wave of energy price hikes.
Oh, the humanity! To make things even worse, the Sun is reporting that a hot cross bun shortage could hit just before Easter. Angry food producers are threatening to stop transporting milling wheat in protest of the hikes to inheritance tax for family farms. Farming Minister Daniel Zeichner may well face questions on this today when he faces the DEFRA committee at 10 a.m.
WHAT KEMI WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Kemi Badenoch is also going on the attack today with new figures suggesting the government’s hikes to national insurance for businesses will cost households £3,536 by 2029. The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith has the details on the back-of-a-fag-packet figures drawn by Tory researchers.
Going on the attack: Badenoch will talk more about tax hikes this morning as she fronts a press conference alongside Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride. Playbook is told to expect the press conference mid-morning, while the Tory leader will also be interviewed by LBC’s Nick Ferrari at 9.20 a.m.
ON COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: And to get a slightly more impartial view of all the swirling economic calamity, the OBR’s Richard Hughes will discuss last week’s spring statement at the Treasury Committee. He’ll be up at 10 a.m.
Also, just up the corridor … will be Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. Starmer’s northern frenemy will speak about reforms to Jobcentres from 9 a.m., but will almost certainly be asked about the government’s benefits cuts by mischievous opposition party MPs. Let’s see if he bites!
2-TIER NEWS CYCLE
MISSED BY A WHISKER: Today was very nearly what the Tories were calling “two-tier Tuesday,” with more lenient sentencing guidelines for ethnic minorities set to come into place. But Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood got a final-minute reprieve on Monday (see Playbook PM) as the Sentencing Council caved to government pressure and delayed implementing the new guidance. The news gods are truly shining on her.
To the victor, the spoils: Mahmood will today bring forward legislation to block the Sentencing Council’s new guidelines, which advised judges to consider age, sex and ethnicity when deliberating over sentencing by making them gather more information. The bill is not expected to pass before Easter. The justice secretary last night said the guidelines “create a justice system where outcomes could be influenced by race, culture or religion,” which is “unacceptable.” The Guardian’s Jess Elgot has her full words.
Can’t win them all: This has not stopped the Daily Mail from hitting the government with fresh claims of “two-tier” justice in its splash today. Martin Beckford writes that police chiefs wrote up a “Race Action Plan” in 2020 that called for “equality of policing outcomes for people from different ethnic groups by responding to individuals and communities according to their specific needs.”
Case for the defense: A Labour official told the Mail that there was nothing in the plan suggesting police should give “preferential treatment to black people compared to white people.”
ALSO HAPPENING: Meanwhile, the MOJ has announced that victims will get to attend the parole hearings of their perpetrators from today. The department said the change would “let victims see first-hand how offenders are held accountable for their crimes, their subsequent behaviour in prison and their work to prove they can live law-abiding lives if released.”
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
WORKING IT OUT: Angela Rayner has defended her signature workers’ rights reforms, writing in the i that “more than 10 million people will benefit from Labour’s plan in every corner of this country.” The deputy PM’s message comes after the OBR last week said the package would have “net negative” impacts on the economy, including increasing inflation and decreasing productivity.
Not Rayn-ing on her parade: The DPM is clearly sticking by the package … and has cleverly tied Starmer to it too. She wrote in her op-ed: “This plan is personal to me, and to our prime minister. Now we are around the Cabinet table, working people are getting the pay rise and rights they deserve and a government determined to deliver for them.”
NOW READ THIS: Starmer has written his own op-ed today in the Metro about his Monday meeting with the creators of Netflix Drama “Adolescence.” The PM writes that Netflix’s decision to show the series for free in schools “may save lives.” Read the whole piece here.
ROBOT BOFFINS: Five government departments are using AI to write up responses to written parliamentary questions, write the Telegraph’s Madeleine Ross and Dominic Penna. They are the Department for Business and Trade, the Department for Education, the Department for Work and Pensions, the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and the Foreign Office. Playbook’s own Bethany Dawson had the jump on this one last month.
NOW THE REAL WORK BEGINS: The government’s overseas crime summit continues today, with politicians leaving Lancaster House to let border officials map out how to collaborate on irregular migration. Day Two comes as the Sun’s splash reveals a pair of Channel migrants have been bragging on TikTok about being put up in a British hotel.
Big trip: Foreign Secretary David Lammy is in the Western Balkans today to speak to his counterparts about illegal migration. Expect to see him pop up with interviews to local media outlets in Serbia and Kosovo.
LESS THAN IDEAL: Tech Secretary Peter Kyle has warned Britain is extremely vulnerable to cyberattacks and that he’s “deeply concerned” about the safety of critical infrastructure. Kyle told the Telegraph he “was really quite shocked” after top-level spooks told him about “some of the vulnerabilities that we knew existed and yet nothing had been done.”
GOOD OLD FASHIONED DINOSAUR CULL: The House of Lords’ hereditary peers bill has its final day of committee stage in the upper house today. But they’ll get a stay of execution — there’s no date yet for the report stage (when peers vote on any amendments) and Playbook hears the government is in no mood to rush the bill through. It could be a couple of months yet.
IN COURT TODAY: A bunch of private schools are taking the government to court today over its decision to charge VAT to fee-paying schools. The three-day hearing begins at 10.30 a.m. today at the Royal Courts of Justice in London.
GOING FULL BLADE RUNNER: The government has announced £20 million to fund the development of commercial drones — which could include flying taxis. It comes after Amazon announced earlier this year it would eventually launch drone deliveries from a County Durham base.
REPORTS OUT TODAY: The Conservative Environment Network has put out a “market-led” strategy to generate green growth.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Foreign Office questions … a 10-minute rule motion on duty to cooperate (led by Tory MP Ben Spencer) … consideration of Lords message … and the second reading of the Product Regulation and Metrology Bill. Labour MP Perran Moon has the adjournment debate on trail hunting.
WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 9.30 a.m. on eating disorder awareness (led by Lib Dem MP Wera Hobhouse) … access to dentistry in Somerset (led by Lib Dem MP Anna Sabine) … contribution to the Royal British Legion (led by Tory MP Luke Evans) … rail services on the East Durham coastline (led by Grahame Morris) … relationship education in schools (led by Lib Dem MP Helen Maguire).
On committee corridor: West England Mayor and Labour MP Dan Norris, North East Mayor Kim McGuinness and former Tory MP Greg Clark discuss innovation, growth and regions at the Science, Innovation and Technology Committee from 9.45 a.m. … Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham speaks about Jobcentre reforms with the Work and Pensions Committee at 9 a.m. … Food Security and Rural Affairs Minister Daniel Zeichner faces questions on farming, profitability and fairness in supply chains, and fisheries at the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee at 10 a.m.
and breathe … Channel 4 Chief Executive Alex Mahon and Channel 4 Chair Ian Cheshire discuss the work of the broadcaster with the Culture, Media and Sport Committee at 10 a.m. … Local Growth and Building Safety Minister Alex Norris answers questions on Grenfell and building safety at the Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee at 10 a.m. … OBR Chair Richard Hughes discusses the spring statement at the Treasury Committee at 10 a.m. … Prisons Minister James Timpson on prison rehabilitation at the Lords’ Justice and Home Affairs Committee at 10.30 a.m. … Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson and Resolution Foundation Chief Executive Ruth Curtis speak about the spring statement at the Treasury Committee at 2.05 p.m.
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. on the results of the trials of e-scooters in England … questions on the operation of the Royal Horticultural Society Garden Wisley and its environmental and research center because of roadworks … questions on the effectiveness of stop-and-search in tackling knife crime … questions on Sussex University’s fine from the Office for Students for breach of free speech obligations … considerations of Commons reasons and/or amendments of the (Multipliers and Private Schools) Bill … and committee stage of the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill.
BEYOND THE M25
DOING GOD’S WORK: The Local Government Information Unit has released a very handy and extensive guide to next month’s local elections. The “Ones to Watch” list shuffles through all the most important battleground seats and what to watch for on election night.
TOWN HALL RICH LIST: The TaxPayers’ Alliance has revealed that a record 3,906 local council bosses received more than £100,000 in wages in 2023-24. It’s part of the think tank’s annual Town Hall Rich List. The Telegraph wrote that one up.
NON, JE NE REGRETTE RIEN: A furious Marine Le Pen has said she will not back down or leave French politics, after she was banned by a French court from standing for public office for five years (via POLITICO). The judges found the National Rally leader and 23 others guilty on Monday of misappropriating funds from the EU. Le Pen told French broadcaster TF1 that it was all a politically motivated stitch-up.
She said: “This evening, millions of French people are indignant, indignant to an unimaginable extent seeing that in France, the country of human rights, judges have implemented practices that were thought to be the preserve of authoritarian regimes.” My Paris colleagues have this story on what Le Pen might do next.
AXIS OF AUTHORITARIANISM SUMMIT: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow today. AP has the details.
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MEDIA ROUND
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds: Times Radio (6.50 a.m.) … Sky News (7.05 a.m.) … BBC 5Live (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.).
Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith broadcast round: Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … GB News (8.00 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … LBC News (8.45 a.m.) … Talk (9.05 a.m.).
Also on Sky News breakfast: The Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s Alfie Stirling (8.45 a.m.) … Lib Dem MP Layla Moran (9.20 a.m.)
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Jeevun Sandher … Tory peer Eleanor Laing … Lib Dem MP Anna Sabine … ConHome’s Henry Hill.
Also on Times Radio breakfast: Former British ambassador to the U.S. Kim Darroch (8.10 a.m.) … former Labour MP Khalid Mahmood (8.15 a.m.).
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: Can Keir Starmer bring down bills before bills bring him down?
Daily Mail: ‘Two-tier’ police race guide row.
Daily Mirror: Glitter victim’s victory.
Daily Star: Madness of King Don.
Financial Times: Le Pen’s presidential hopes shattered by five-year ban on running for office.
i: Defiant Rayner tells UK firms: my new rights for workers will help economy.
Metro: Andrew accuser: I’ve four days to live.
The Daily Telegraph: Trump: No free trade without free speech.
The Guardian: Furious Le Pen rails against ban on running for French presidency.
The Sun: Taking us for fools.
The Times: Trump’s tariffs will hit Britain, admits PM.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: The sun’s out all day again — it really is spring. High of 15C, low of 7C.
VERY MUCH INSIDE THE M25: A survey of 46 MPs by InHouse has revealed that more of them (59 percent) now read this newsletter every morning than listen to the Today program (56 percent). We swear it’s not an April Fool’s joke. The survey also revealed 28 percent of MPs listen to Times Radio in the morning, more than watch BBC1 Breakfast and GMB, and 15 percent now listen to POLITICO and Sky’s Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast. Of course, as Playbook is always obligated to point out, how reliable are polls (let alone politicians) anyway? Stay humble and all that.
MATCH REPORT: The Westminster women’s football team beat the Treasury’s team 6-4 on Monday night.
JOB NEWS: Gary Jones, former editor of the Express and the Sunday Mirror, has landed a new job as head of public affairs for green energy company Ecotricity. The firm was founded by Labour donor Dale Vince.
JOB AD:The Treasury is advertising for a position as the chancellor’s business engagement lead. Applicants from the private sector can earn a grand total of up to £65,000 a year.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK WEDNESDAY MORNING: Stefan Boscia.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Former Epsom and Ewell MP Chris Grayling … Salisbury MP John Glen … Washington and Gateshead South MP Sharon Hodgson … Lib Dem peer Sal Brinton … SNP MSP Joe FitzPatrick … ex-Labour COO John Lehal … New Economics Foundation’s Anna Coote … Plaid Cymru peer and former Leader Dafydd Wigley … senior researcher at the Institute for Government Jack Worlidge.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, and producer Dean Southwell.
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