CLEVELAND, Ohio — In this episode of the Wine and Gold Talk podcast, Ethan Sands, Chris Fedor and Jimmy Watkins focus on the MVP race and Donovan Mitchell’s candidacy.
How to watch the Cavs: See how to watch the Cavs games with this handy game-by-game TV schedule.
Takeaways
The MVP race is primarily between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Donovan Mitchell’s candidacy is complicated by team dynamics.
Statistical markers are crucial for MVP consideration.
Team success can overshadow individual contributions.
Donovan’s leadership and impact are hard to quantify.
Tyrese Haliburton is a strong candidate based on stats.
LeBron James’ age adds a unique perspective to his MVP candidacy.
MVP voting often reflects historical context and narratives.
The conversation around MVP is subjective and varies by voter.
Awards like first team All-NBA may be more meaningful for some players. Steph Curry’s gravity creates opportunities for teammates.
Cade Cunningham significantly impacts his team’s success.
Analytics provide valuable insights but don’t tell the whole story.
The MVP race involves multiple candidates with strong cases.
Tim Bontemps is seen as a Cavs skeptic rather than a hater.
The Cavaliers are a different team this year compared to previous seasons.
The conversation around the MVP race is ongoing and complex.
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Read the automated transcript of today’s podcast below. Because it’s a computer-generated transcript, it may contain errors and misspellings.
Ethan Sands
What up, Cavs Nation? I’m your host, Ethan Sands, and I’m back with another episode of the Wine and Gold Talk podcast. And joining me on today’s episode, Chris Fedor, Jimmy Watkins, and we hope to have Ashley Bastoc back on the pod later this week. She’ll be helping us out on the podcast and covering the Cavs for the remainder of the season. Obviously, there’s seven games left. She’ll be around for the playoffs. I know you guys.
Are already asking me about where she’s gonna be next. So what on this podcast? We’re gonna touch on something
Chris (00:39.437)
Shout out to Ashley. She remembered my Starbucks order and she brought me an iced white chocolate mocha yesterday for the game. So that was, that was a nice surprise, but her and I had worked together in the past and she and I had this thing where we kind of like went to Starbucks. One of us went to Starbucks and got the coffees for the three of us. It was me, myself and Kelsey Russo, who was working at the athletic at that point in time.
So every single game somebody had the responsibility to go to Starbucks beforehand. And that was years ago, like I said, and Ashley, being the intrepid reporter that she is, she remembered my Starbucks order to a T and she got me an iced white chocolate mocha with no whipped cream and it was wonderful. It’s what I needed to get through a weird 330 game for the Cavs that I was not used to.
Ethan Sands (01:33.612)
I mean, she is a blessed soul because she definitely asked me before she came to, think it was a couple of weeks ago for her first home game in a couple of years. And I was like, I don’t drink coffee. She was like, how do you survive? said, I don’t know. One of my old nicknames used to be like the Energizer Bunny because I don’t run on like caffeine or energy drinks or coffee or cigarettes or whatever people use to stay up and stuff. But yeah, she’s a sweetheart and we can’t wait to have her back on the podcast.
Chris (01:37.581)
you
Ethan Sands (02:03.618)
But for today, we’re going to go into something that Chris had sent out to our subtexters, a question that comes around every year. And no, we are not getting fully in depth into end of year awards just yet, because as Chris has mentioned on a earlier podcast, we’re still not there yet. Seven games left. We have a little bit more to figure out before we can get into that. But Chris, I’m going to throw this to you.
and allow you to break down what you said to our subtexters, why you felt it was the right time to have this conversation, or why somebody might have thought it was the right time for you to have this conversation.
Chris (02:44.505)
Well guys, ESPN does this straw poll for MVP voting to kind of give a general idea to the public of where the voters minds are at. So Tim Bontemps from ESPN.com, cue the booze from Cavs Nation. Tim Bontemps, my buddy from ESPN.com, who covers all of the NBA, but focuses primarily on like the Eastern, upper Eastern portion.
The conference so the Knicks the Boston Celtics sometimes the Philadelphia 76ers But he’s been at multiple Cavs games this year as well Every quarter of the season Tim reaches out to all of the different writers who are awards voters that he has built relationships with over the years and He just has us submit our top five for the MVP at that point in time. So
About 25 games in was the first time, then the halfway point was the second time. And obviously it’s toward the end of the season, it’s close enough toward the end of the season that he had us do the end of season straw poll for MVP. Just to kind of get a gauge of what we’re thinking. So because he sent me that text, it made me start thinking more about the MVP award. And look, I think guys, everybody understands one, two,
whatever order you put it in, it’s between Jokic and Shea. There is no other debate. I mean, if we’re talking about MVP, it’s those two guys battling between each other. And then three, four, in some order, is going to be Janis and Jason Tatum. And then five becomes complicated. But as a voter, you can’t just put four names. And as a voter, you can’t put six. And as a voter, you can’t put eight.
It has to be five, specifically five in order of one, two, three, four, five. So as I was texting him back this morning, giving him my submission, so that he can put it on ESPN.com and let everybody know this is where the MVP race stands coming down the home stretch. as I was going through five, I was like, my God, what am I supposed to do as a voter here? So I’m going to throw it to you guys.
Chris (05:08.919)
Like should Donovan be number five on my ballot? Like I know that five doesn’t really matter all that much, but Donovan wants to be on the MVP list. Like he wants to be included in the top five. He has his doubts. We’ve had multiple conversations about this. He has his doubts about whether he will be in the top five of the MVP voting, but he wants to be. And he wants to be first team all NBA.
So as I was going through this, because the top four are just no brainers in whatever order you want to put them in, the names are no brainers. The fifth one is complicated because there are multiple guys that you could put there at five, but you can only pick one. Should it be Donovan on my ballot?
Jimmy Watkins (05:58.768)
This is interesting, like you said, pretty inconsequential debate that we’re about to have right now. Now, I will say that we have five spots for a reason. And I think over the course of history, the entire ballot matters because it’s a representation of who was moving the league, who was blipping the radar that year. We come back to some of these things. If you have
Chris (06:11.587)
Mm-hmm.
Jimmy Watkins (06:27.507)
If you haven’t won an MVP, okay, how many top five finishes do you have? How many top three finishes do you have? These things do matter. And Donovan has never finished top five on the MVP ballot before. I believe the only time he’s ever even placed on the ballot was when he was sixth his first year in Cleveland. So that’s why, that’s why we’re doing this. Also pertains to Donovan. is, is him as an awards. We talked about this with a little bit of the last pod with
Chris (06:31.107)
Mmm.
Chris (06:46.787)
Mm-hmm.
Jimmy Watkins (06:56.645)
All NBA as well, like him as an awards evaluation case is an interesting case because as previously mentioned, the numbers, the counting stats aren’t what they usually are. The efficiency in recent, in recent weeks has dipped a little bit. That hurts his overall picture, but he is clearly the best player on one of the two best teams in the NBA. And anyone you talk to around that team would say that he’s done.
Chris (07:03.565)
Yes.
Jimmy Watkins (07:25.851)
a lot of things behind the scenes and tangibly and tangibly. As again, we talked about this last night, all of the empowering Evan Mobley, Kenny Atkinson put that on Donovan’s plate on the court by pairing them together in lineups. And Donovan at every turn pushes Evan to use his voice and be assertive because the idea is like that’s not.
It’s not on you, that’s in you, and you need to make that a habit in everything that you do, right? If you want to be an aggressive basketball player, you need to assert yourself in other areas of your life. That’s the idea. That’s the thinking here. And it has worked to a T and Donovan has made it work to a T. did just for reference to see what helped me help jog my brain here. I looked at like basketball references, MVP tracker, and I think
Chris (07:59.128)
evening.
Jimmy Watkins (08:22.835)
which gives you some weird results sometimes and that’s gonna, we have that here. But I also think here in these weird results kind of lies the conundrum for Donovan, which is that there are three calves in the top 10 of basketball references, MVP tracker, Jared Allen. First of all, shout out Jared Allen. We know advanced dance can.
Chris (08:26.329)
Yeah.
Jimmy Watkins (08:48.903)
We love the advanced dance, love efficiency. love rebounding. Allen is very efficient and rebound. Well, that’s probably why he’s here. No disrespect. Jared Allen’s not going to show up on anyone’s MVP ballot. don’t think, but the point is Jared and Allen, Evan Mobley are actually both above Donovan Mitchell on this top 10 MVP tracker list. And that’s before you consider Darius Garland. And this has been my thing about Donovan and MVP this year for most of the year. also think this is.
Chris (08:52.654)
Yes.
Jimmy Watkins (09:18.513)
make this, there’s a Jason Tatum corollary here. The team’s too good. The team is too good. There are too many good players on the Cavs. We have this simplified understanding of most valuable player where it’s just like, who’s dragging their team the furthest. That’s, that’s sometimes what it comes down to. And as, as it pertains to that, I don’t think Donovan Mitchell is a great candidate when you compare him to.
Chris (09:22.691)
Yeah.
Chris (09:41.881)
Hmm.
Jimmy Watkins (09:49.603)
Steph Curry or Anthony Edwards or
Chris (09:52.569)
So the other names... I mean the other names in the five list are Tyrese Halliburton, Jalen Brunson if he gets there. That one’s a little bit dicey right now. He’s at 61 games. He needs to play four more. He may be back by the end of this week. So it’ll be close. But it’s Tyrese Halliburton, Jalen Brunson, Steph Curry, LeBron James. I guess if you want to throw Ant in there you probably could.
Jimmy Watkins (10:01.265)
Yeah, game’s played.
Chris (10:22.713)
But that’s kind of the cluster that I was working with. And I think CAP too is an interesting one.
Jimmy Watkins (10:30.163)
Yeah, is fifth on this basketball reference MVP tracker thing. I would put Donovan over Kat personally, but I think you can, if you want to reward a top seed, I see no issue with that, but I just don’t think as a traditional MVP candidate, I understand why Donovan lacks confidence that he will be on the ballot.
Chris (10:58.413)
It’s just hard because he doesn’t have the statistical markers that voters usually look for. And like when you’re making the best argument for Donovan, it’s all these things that you have no idea how to quantify. It’s his leadership, right? It’s his empowering teammates. It’s the fact that his game has always translated to winning. And there’s something to that. He just has a way to impact winning at a high level.
The sacrifice that he has made has been a huge benefit to the Cavs. It’s been a benefit to Darius. It’s been a benefit to Evan Mobley. It’s been a benefit to the team in general. You can’t ignore his sacrifice and you can’t ignore just his overall impact on this franchise and what it means to Darius Garland to share the floor with Donovan. And what it means to Evan Mobley to share the floor with Donovan. And what it means to this Cavs organization
to have that kind of guy at the very, very top of it. That’s the argument for Donovan, but that doesn’t show up anywhere. That’s not in the box plus minus. That’s not in the points per game. That’s not in the player efficiency rating. That’s not in the value over replacement player. That’s not in the estimated plus minus from dunks and threes. Like when you cobble all these things together in a spreadsheet,
And you put all five candidates that you’re looking at for the fifth spot in MVP and you put like all those different categories because that’s what I do. And that’s what a lot of these other voters do. They’re going to be like zero where Donovan is above Tyrese Halliburton, Steph Curry, LeBron James, Jalen Brunson, and some of these other guys that you would consider at number five. And it just makes it really, really complicated because
You feel like Donovan deserves a reward for all of the things that he’s done for this team and all of the sacrifices that he’s made and the willingness to step back. Like that’s what you want from a star. That’s what you want from a leader. But like when you break it down, he’s not going to be ahead of any of these guys and any of those other things that I talked about, those things that typically matter the most.
Chris (13:21.879)
when having these MVP conversations or six man of the year conversations or defensive player of the year or any of these individual awards.
Jimmy Watkins (13:30.612)
You know what it sounds like to me? It sounds like I don’t want to put words in Chris’s mouth, but just hearing what you’re saying, we want to reward Donovan for his contributions to a team context, right? That sounds a little bit more to me, like first team all NBA kind of a reward than it does MVP. Cause again, MVP we’re trying and it’s very, it’s very hard to quantify. It’s very vague and blurry at times. We’re trying to quantify.
Chris (13:42.873)
Mm-mm.
Chris (13:47.321)
Yeah.
Jimmy Watkins (14:00.663)
this one person, their value to, and I’ve obviously, as we’re saying here, there’s that there’s intangible value that Donovan has provided that we don’t have a culture setting efficiency rating. Not yet. I’m sure we will very soon. John Ollinger is already at work working on it. We don’t have that though right now. We don’t have it right now. So it’s, think to me, if we’re leaning into what has
Chris (14:21.251)
Yes.
Jimmy Watkins (14:28.687)
MVP has historically meant and you know what MVP means different things to different people. I think it probably you end up throwing one of the other names in the hat on the MVP ballot and then Donovan gets first team all NBA, which personally to me is more meaningful than a top five MVP finish anyways.
Chris (14:33.369)
Mm-hmm.
Ethan Sands (14:46.872)
So I think this is a great conversation, one, because I have to look at the shooting numbers on top of everything that’s been going on with Donovan. it feels like Donovan, and Chris mentioned this, having the ability to take a step back and knowing when to put the foot on the gas and all those things. But it also feels like in the month where the Cavs have needed Donovan the most, he hasn’t played to the standard that we would expect from him, right? Because...
When we talk about the field goal percentage in the month of March alone, 37.2%, three point percentage, 21.4%. Right. And he’s averaging 22.5 points per game on 18.6 field goal attempts per game. The next closest is Darius Garland with 15.9. And he’s not having a great March either. So I think when we talk about a conversation where it’s literally about the most valuable team,
and how that impacts their winning. I think there’s obviously other conversations for guys like LeBron and Tyrese Halliburton who we’ve talked about this already. I don’t necessarily think he’s in this conversation as much as some of the other names, but I would wanna have.
Chris (15:59.617)
You are out of your mind. Like I was wondering the same thing. I was. And when I got the text from Tin Bantam, so I was like, you know what? I’m gonna do a lot more research before I actually submit this thing. Tyrese Halliburton is top 10 in the NBA, like across the board in every statistical category that measures impact and effect on winning. Every single one of them.
He is top 10. And it’s outrageous to me that he’s getting more recognition. And it’s outrageous to me that you’re such a Halliburton hater, It doesn’t make any sense. There’s like nothing that backs it up. Like everything about his statistical profile says that he belongs as one of the best players in the NBA this year. That’s the level that he’s played at this year specifically.
Ethan Sands (16:42.764)
Well, okay.
Ethan Sands (16:58.062)
I think it’s also just the fact that over an overarching perspective, like again, I’m not looking at statistics. I just don’t like the way that Tyrese Halliburton plays the game, but he’s also having a down year when it comes to points per game, when it comes to assists per game, when it comes to rebounds per game, he’s having a down year for three point percentage as well.
Jimmy Watkins (17:20.691)
I don’t look at statistics, recite statistics.
thing. Here’s the thing about Tyrese Halberton. I think there’s a case, there’s a case against Tyrese Halberton and it’s really simple. It’s the blink test. Is Tyrese Halberton better than Donovan Mitchell? No. We don’t have to think about it. Is Tyrese Halberton better than Anthony Edwards? No. Is Tyrese Halberton better than, who else are we naming? Jalen Brunson’s an interesting case because I think Tyrese is a magician playmaker and Jalen is just because of by virtue of being so small.
I don’t know. But for most of the- it’s no. Okay?
Chris (17:57.561)
But I think we have to flip the question, I think you’re asking the wrong question. Because like, this isn’t about who’s a better player. Because if that’s the conversation, the answer is LeBron. Right? Or the answer is Steph. Based on like, what they’ve done throughout the course of their time, and how they’re viewed compared to some of these other guys. Right? To me, the real question is, which player
Jimmy Watkins (18:03.411)
And that’s it.
Chris (18:25.741)
has had the more impactful 2024-2025 season. Because if we’re just talking about like who’s better, yeah, Donovan’s a better pure black basketball player than Tyrese Halliburton. And the same thing with Anthony Edwards and the same thing with LeBron and the same thing with Steph Curry. But like, I just don’t think you can ignore the fact that he is seventh in wind shares, he’s third in offensive wind shares.
He is seventh in box plus minus. He’s fifth in value over replacement player. The only four ahead of him are the other four in the MVP conversation. Yokich, Shay, Janice, Jason Tatum. win shares per 48. He’s ninth. So like when you’re top 10 in all of those, and those are the categories that I know that is really nerdy and there isn’t one catch all stat or anything like that.
and there isn’t one category that carries more weight than another, but those ones that I just referenced right there have been created in a way to determine impact on winning and in a way, value, value to success. He’s top 10 in every single one of them, top five in a couple. Like at some point, don’t you have to reward a guy for what he’s done rather than look at
Like who he is compared to these other guys over the course of history.
Ethan Sands (19:57.806)
Can I ask a question then? Can I? Cause I haven’t heard his name in and I don’t have the stats in front of me, the advanced stats at least, but Cade Cunningham has helped take that team to a different level. Has he not?
Chris (20:12.421)
He has, but his numbers do not support that. And like, I agree with Cade and I thought about Cade a little bit too. Just more for the eye test and more for the general, like, hey, he has taken this leap, become an all-star, become the focal point of maybe the best story in the NBA, the Detroit Pistons, but there isn’t a statistical argument.
to make for K, he doesn’t appear on any of these things. Value over replacement player, box plus minus, player efficiency rating, win shares, win shares per 48, offensive win shares, estimated real plus minus, like, it just isn’t there. So all you could say is, well, look what he has done for Detroit, and then you get into the whole chicken or egg conversation.
And it’s like, is it Cade or is it like JB Bickerstaff coming there and giving this organization a direction and identity, establishing a culture, and then that boosts his case for coach of the year.
Jimmy Watkins (21:27.827)
Yeah, I don’t know. The Pistons are dead in the water without Cade. mean, they rely on him so heavily, yes.
Chris (21:34.872)
Are they?
Ethan Sands (21:36.792)
Chris is gonna mention that they just won three games without him.
Chris (21:40.376)
I mean...
Jimmy Watkins (21:41.767)
I don’t care. I don’t care.
Chris (21:43.801)
They’re six and four in their last ten.
Jimmy Watkins (21:45.853)
Thank you for bringing facts to the table. Thank you for bringing facts to the table. I’m going to dismiss them. If they played without Kate over a full season, they would be cooked.
Chris (21:58.149)
I think that’s a fair way to look at it. Like you would feel his impact more as the season goes on over the course of 82. But you could say the same thing for Jalen Brunson. Like they are not the offensive machine that they have become. Even though they have Ananobe and he has been a wagon over this last month. And they have Kat and they have Bridges and a lot of those guys are getting more of an opportunity and...
They’re putting up bigger numbers because Brunson’s not there. Like Brunson is the engine of one of the best offenses in the NBA. And if you take him out of the equation and extrapolate that over the course of an entire 82 game season, they’re nothing close to that level of offense. So you could say the same thing about Brunson too. And the Knicks are better and they have a better record than the Pistons.
Jimmy Watkins (22:49.799)
Also.
Jimmy Watkins (22:57.299)
The Indiana Pacers are also 3-0 without Terry Salliburton this month. Facts back on the table.
Chris (23:01.689)
The Cavs are 7-0 without Donovan, by the way. Is that something that’s going to be held against him?
Jimmy Watkins (23:05.703)
No, yeah. Okay. We played it. My point is, we played this game long enough. There’s just weird. And again, that’s to the point about the Cavs are very good and deep. Whereas some of these other teams less equipped to do so. think Tyrese has missed other games where the Pacers did not look as good. He’s very important to their success. I like Tyrese Halliburton a good deal as a basketball player. It’s just like, we can’t, we’re building the entire plane out of the...
out of his MVP candidacy or most of the playing with the advanced stats that frankly, I don’t even know how they’re calculated. I know why Tyrese Halliburton is a really good basketball player. He has incredible shooting range that he weaponizes to get past defenders. He’s, as I already mentioned, absolutely a magician playmaker. He is one of the best pastors in the NBA.
Chris (23:59.245)
Yeah.
Jimmy Watkins (24:02.557)
He is the reason that Indiana Pacers go. It’s like, he’s certainly the engine of that team. I will say having Rick Carlile, Rick Carlile gets some good production out of those kinds of players. It’s not hurting, but neither here nor there. just, I hear and respect and understand why Tyrese Halliburton grades out as an efficient, valuable basketball player.
It just doesn’t pass the smell test to me. I don’t think Tyrese Halliburton, MVP candidate guy.
Chris (24:36.121)
How about LeBron for the fifth spot?
Ethan Sands (24:39.19)
I can see that. I can see that a lot. Yeah, I mean.
Jimmy Watkins (24:40.647)
can’t miss with LeBron on your MVP ballot, I don’t think. Particularly given the way he’s ratcheted up on defense since they got Luca. Been very impressive.
Ethan Sands (24:48.962)
That and just the fact that he’s 40 years old and doing this, right?
Chris (24:54.925)
Do you give him bonus points because he’s an old man doing this at this level?
Ethan Sands (24:59.118)
100%. 100%. He gets bonus points for being 40 years old.
Jimmy Watkins (25:03.281)
He also, before Luca got there, quite an offensive burden, quite an offensive burden on LeBron.
Chris (25:14.869)
You know, Steph has a really good statistical case too. He does. But, but I don’t know, I don’t know what to do with this fact. You know, before Jimmy got there, they were just middling in basketball Western conference purgatory, right? Like there were conversations about should they trade Steph? Should they trade Draymond? Is it time to break it up and go young?
Like what direction do they need to go because they were just hovering around the nine, 10 spot in the Western conference in a big reason why they’ve taken the step that they’ve taken here is not because of Steph. Like, yeah, part of it’s Steph, of course. Steph is always going to be central to everything that happens in Golden State land. But.
Like the majority of people are going to look at this rise of Golden State here and they’re going to say, well, that’s Jimmy. That’s because they traded for Jimmy Butler and he has filled in the gaps and he’s been a missing piece for that kind of team that has made them a legitimate threat in the Western Conference. So do you hold that against staff or do you...
You know, just say, well, Steph’s also a big part of that too, and he’s contributing the way that he always has to winning. And now it just matters more because he has guys that are capable of winning alongside.
Ethan Sands (26:44.588)
think I’ve seen too many stinky games from Chef this year. Just like, there’s been games where he has not been productive, there’s been games where, like, there’s been games against the Cavs where it felt like he was in purgatory. Like, couldn’t hit a shot, was not used.
Jimmy Watkins (26:58.429)
He doesn’t get the LeBron senior discount for your MVP ballot.
Ethan Sands (27:03.406)
If he if he What LeBron still I don’t know if LeBron has scored less than 10 points this season yet, right? What?
Chris (27:04.685)
The golden Buckeye card.
Jimmy Watkins (27:06.257)
Yeah.
Chris (27:10.903)
He is not. is not... He hasn’t scored less than 10 points in multiple decades at this point.
Jimmy Watkins (27:14.087)
Yeah, that’s not just this season. Yeah.
Ethan Sands (27:18.926)
That was the stat I was trying to get to. mean, like, I think there’s been multiple games where Steph Curry hasn’t scored 10 points and has also not contributed in other factors in the game. Sure, again.
Jimmy Watkins (27:30.299)
Yeah, but his median, Steph’s median performance is incredible.
Ethan Sands (27:35.086)
But
Jimmy Watkins (27:36.049)
what you’re getting most of the time or the average, the mean, the median, the mode. It’s all great with stuff.
Ethan Sands (27:44.366)
right but how many shots do you have to give him for him to have those performances like if you go over of 10 or 0 of 7 for your first seven shots and then you need 28 shots to get 22 points is that a median performance
Jimmy Watkins (27:57.683)
stuff.
If Steph takes zero shots in a quarter, he’s still the reason why most of the points in that quarter were created. mean, the value, we talk about value conversation, Steph never stops moving off the ball. He’s always, the defense is always trying to keep track of him and the boyars get so many easy buckets as a result of his gravity. Like it’s just, it runs deep with, honestly, the more we talk about this though, the more I’m just like,
Ethan Sands (28:09.176)
That’s a great point. That’s a good point.
Chris (28:11.961)
Yeah.
Jimmy Watkins (28:29.277)
A lot of these dudes have like half of a case or not really that enticing of a case. So if you wanted to say, hey, look, Donovan just the best player on one of the best teams in the league and the history deserves to remember his season as such, I say go for it.
Ethan Sands (28:48.662)
Okay, so guess who would I vote for? think... Well, I need the analytics and the advanced stats in front of me, but no. I think it would have to be Jaylen Brunson. And this is where it gets interesting because we talk about taking votes from each other. Cat’s also in that conversation. Does he take votes?
Chris (28:48.867)
Who would you vote for, Ethan? For fifth? Well, we know it’s not Diaries Hell.
Chris (29:17.624)
Mm-hmm.
Ethan Sands (29:18.04)
Does he pull you in the different direction? Cause he’s had more games or whatever the situation is in New York. Like I just think they both have a big impact on what this team has been able to accomplish this year. And I’m going to stick with what I was saying earlier. I definitely have the thought process of Cade. We’re not talking about analytics, which are not in front of me. Like they, he simply impacts the game for them to a different level. They are the first team in NBA history to triple their win total.
Chris (29:39.49)
Mm-hmm.
Ethan Sands (29:46.754)
from the previous season. Like that is ridiculous to me just to think about. And again, what Jimmy and you were saying earlier, they do not do that if Cade Cunningham is not on that team. Sure, he takes 20 shots a game and doesn’t have the best efficiency, but he is what makes that offense go. And to be very fair, like the reason that they got shooters is because Cade has the ability to drive to the basket against three different people and kick it out and they’re gonna be wide open.
Chris (29:47.139)
Yeah.
Chris (30:01.88)
Mm-hmm.
Ethan Sands (30:16.93)
before this season, he didn’t have that option. He was rather taken to the basket himself. Now you give him help and that creates more offense, not only for him, but for the players around him. So I think I would have to have the debate and do more research as you did today, Chris, between those three guys and Jalen, Kat, Cain Cunningham. But obviously LeBron is also in that conversation as well.
Chris (30:44.343)
Yeah, for me, it turned out to be at the very end of this, very complicated four player debate. Halliburton, Donovan, LeBron.
Steph and it’s like every single one of those guys for me for my purposes for the numbers that I look at and I’m with you Jimmy I don’t know. I don’t know how these are calculated but like my ignorance on that is not going to overshadow the fact that Teams use these numbers very very smart people around the NBA have told me that these numbers are meaningful
and they tell a really, really, really close story to what is the truth. Like, no number is going to tell the entire story. No set of numbers is going to tell the entire story. But there are so many smart people around the NBA that I talk to that tell me, point me in a certain direction of which numbers they value the most and which ones I should consider valuing the most as well.
So every single one of those guys, with the exception of Donovan, is top 10 in all of those metrics, right? Like Tyrese Halliburton, LeBron James, Steph Curry, they’re all top 10 in value over replacement player and offensive box plus minus and box plus minus and offensive wind shares and wind shares and wind shares per 48 and defensive wind shares, not defensive wind shares with Steph and Halliburton. We all know that they’re not the defendants.
that some of these other guys are. Estimated real plus minus from dunks and threes. Like that is the only one, the only one of like those major six where Donovan’s actually in the 98th to 99th percentile. Is that particular stat estimated plus minus from dunks and threes. Aside from that,
Chris (32:47.639)
Like the other deeper analytics are more favorable for Jared Allen and Evan Mobley. And you brought up the MVP award tracker from basketball reference. The way that that is calculated is it tries to take voting history into account and make it predictive. So the things that have happened in the past, what kind of numbers voters have focused on, what kind of stats voters have.
have felt like are important. They combine all of those things and they try to determine like what their award tracker should be like based on the 10 players. And I think that’s part of the reason why, you know, Jared and Evan are on that award tracker is because when you look at some of those deeper analytics, they’re more favorable for those guys than they are for Donovan.
And I just don’t know what I’m supposed to do about that. The good thing is my ballot, my official ballot doesn’t come until the end of the season because they can’t send it out without determining, okay, who’s going to be eligible. And some of those things are still being determined. So what I submitted to Tim Bontemps from ESPN for his MVP straw poll, it doesn’t have to be my final ballot. And I still have more time to kind of pour through this.
I will say for the sake of transparency, the fifth guy on my ballot that I sent to Tim Bontemps from ESPN.com was Tyrese Halliburton. I just don’t think you can overlook all of the numbers that point to him, the kind of impact that he has had and the kind of effect that he’s had on winning for the Pacers this year. They’re a top four team in the Eastern Conference.
He is the clear alpha on that team. He is the offensive engine and all of the numbers that are supposed to point to value impact all of those things. They’re all incredibly favorable for him more favorable than they are for Donovan, LeBron and Steph. And like at some point you just can’t ignore those things if you feel like there’s meaning behind them.
Ethan Sands (35:14.796)
And I think that’s a great point and a great segue, Chris, because I feel like this is a conversation between three guys that cover the NBA for a good majority of the season. As we know, Jimmy also covers the Browns, so he comes in about halfway. But we’re around these guys. We know where to get these analysts. We know where to get these statistics. Sometimes we don’t know exactly what we’re going to talk about on the podcast until we get here. So we don’t have...
the necessary preparation that Chris does. But I do think that when you talk about a team like the Cavs, it is based around the depth of the team. That’s what it’s been for the entire year, right? Tyrese Halliburton also has depth around him now. You talk about Pascal Siakka, you talk about Nemhar, you talk about all of the players that can help him elevate to where they are currently. That’s part of the reason why his numbers, when you look at
Chris (36:00.204)
Mm-hmm.
Ethan Sands (36:11.884)
traditional stats have decreased over the year, right? But we also understand that LeBron is playing to a different level this year, even though he’s older. So I definitely want for people listening to this conversation, there’s the in-depth conversation that we’re having, there’s things behind the scenes, there’s advanced statistics that we’re looking at. And I think we have three different perspectives on the situation that help get an understanding that
Everybody has a different outlook on what is important for the MVP race. But above all else, even though Donovan wasn’t the person on the ballot this time, depending on how we end the season, it could change, right? And this is not us hating on the Cavs or Donovan Mitchell or whatever. But I think we all can say, and Chris is absolutely right when speaking on this, the top two spots on the MVP list that actually matter are locked in. Like they are.
Two players that could be up topsy-turvy and this conversation basically was to create a narrative where Donovan Mitchell could be included, right? And I think that’s extremely important, but I want to get into the last topic that I think is more of a fun one. I made sure with Chris before we talked on this podcast that this question was okay because good friend of Chris, Timbontemps, is a gnome cavalier hater. So.
I don’t know if you knew his top 5 in this list, but I’m pretty sure Donovan wasn’t on it.
Jimmy Watkins (37:44.915)
Is that a fair assessment? Is he a Cavaliers hater?
Ethan Sands (37:51.928)
Well, that’s where I’m going with this, That’s where I’m going. Because from a fan perspective, all of the things that he said over the last couple of years about the Cavs has come off negative. So I wanted to ask Chris, do you think he’s a hater or do you think he just has a different perspective from not covering the team every single game of the season?
Chris (37:52.633)
I don’t know.
Chris (38:19.981)
think it’s that. I think he’s just a Cavs skeptic. Can we put it that way? Is that a fair way to put it? Because like, look, he is basing his opinion on the Cavs based on what he’s seen from the Cavs. And I think Tim has been around the NBA long enough to understand that the regular season and the postseason is very, different. So if he’s going based on, you know, the Cavs of the past,
and what they’ve done or what they haven’t done in the postseason, I think it’s fair to be skeptical. Right? Like this team has a lot to prove. I think the Cavs, I think the Cavs organization, I think the players, I think they’ll all say it. Like we have a lot to prove when it comes to postseason success. Donovan Mitchell has said over and over and over again, we haven’t done shit. Right? Because he knows the reputation that they have.
He knows that there are doubters out there, but like those doubters didn’t come from just anywhere. They didn’t just come off the top rope. There’s a reason why they’re doubters. It’s because the Cavs got punked by the New York Knicks two years ago. It’s because the Cavs were taken to seven games in the first round by a lesser opponent, the Orlando Magic. It’s because the Cavs...
You know, lost in the Eastern Conference semi-finals to Boston. And they split with Boston this year and they split with Oklahoma City this year. So it’s like the things that you want to think about the Cavs, or the things that this fan base wants people to think about the Cavs.
That’s not happening. It’s not happening in the regular season. Those people are taking a wait and see approach and saying, all right, cool, great regular season. Going to talk about how great you’ve been in the regular season, give you credit for everything that you’ve done in the regular season. But show me, show me in the playoffs, show me when it matters the most. So I think he’s more of a skeptic as opposed to a hater.
Chris (40:35.181)
And I also know that, you know, he’s got close relationships with a lot of people in this calves organization. And if he was a quote unquote, hater and you know, everything that he wrote was salacious about the calves or negative about the calves. I don’t think the calves organization itself would have, would have the respect for Tim, the appreciation for Tim.
and the view of him as a basketball journalist if that’s how they saw him. So I think he’s just giving his honest opinion of the Cavs versus the Celtics. Essentially, that’s what it comes down to. Can the Cavs beat the Celtics? That’s how national people are looking at the Cavs. Great regular season. Kudos for accomplishing everything that you have. It’s clear that you’re a different team.
than the one that lost to the Knicks two years ago. It’s clear that you’re a different team that got pushed by Orlando last year and lost to the Celtics last year. Those things are obvious and we give you credit for that. But our conversation that we’re having is on a daily basis is a little bit different than the national conversation. And the national conversation is always going to go back to, can you beat Boston? Can you beat Boston? And
I don’t think it’s wrong for somebody, whether it’s Tim Bontemps, Brian Winhurst, Stephen A. Smith, Kendrick Perkins, whoever it may be from a national perspective to sit here and say, I don’t think you can beat Boston four times in seven tries. But great regular season.
Ethan Sands (42:20.024)
To be 100 % clear, I was not saying Tim Bontemps was a hater. I was trying to get clarity on what the situation you feel was. I was reading what our subtexters responded to Chris and also what people have said on ex-formerly Twitter. I do not want people that are like big Tim Bontemps fans coming into my mention. Why are you calling him a hater? No.
Jimmy Watkins (42:20.051)
skepticism... sorry.
Chris (42:35.372)
Hahaha
Jimmy Watkins (42:47.003)
Of which there are many, of which there are many. There are legions of Van Tempians out there. Legions. I like the hoop collective. It’s a pod. I would say skepticism reads like hate to a lover. That’s what I would say to the Tim Pon Tems hater crowd. I do get, I get, that could be in a song. Yeah, that could be in a song. That could be in a song. It’s like, ever tried, you ever tried to tell,
Ethan Sands (42:50.158)
Hahaha
Chris (42:52.215)
Yes.
Chris (43:02.657)
What a line! I love that. That sounds like, yo, that sounds like something from a 90s emo band.
Ethan Sands (43:11.886)
Bye!
Jimmy Watkins (43:16.005)
one of your friends that they might not be dating the right person. It’s a tricky conversation. It’s a tricky conversation. Doesn’t always go over very well for you as the messenger in that situation. That is what Tim Von Tums is doing to Cavs fans who apparently get so riled up by him and then continue to keep listening to him. I don’t understand that kind of dynamic, but it is what it is. And to Chris’s point,
Chris (43:26.09)
Yes, yes
Jimmy Watkins (43:45.792)
I’ll simplify it this way. The Cavs different team this year? Yes, of course. By leaps and bounds, a different team. I’ve been mulled by leaps and bounds, a different basketball player. Darius Garland, for large stretches of the season, has looked like his old self, which is a much different version of him than we saw last year. Comes down to brass tacks, the Cavs have one proven playoff performer on the roster right now. It’s Donovan Mitchell, and then...
Chris (44:10.179)
Mmm.
Jimmy Watkins (44:13.563)
You like what you like the signs you’re seeing from Evan Mobley. You liked the signs you saw against Boston last year. But that’s a small sample size and that was without Jared Allen. And that’s a complicated situation for them to manage right now going into the playoffs. Darius Garland. We’ve seen it last year injuries year before.
Chris (44:29.565)
Mm-hmm.
Jimmy Watkins (44:42.618)
Okay, your first playoff run.
Those those could both be validic reasons not excuses for why he didn’t perform up to par in those playoffs series that doesn’t make me Confident that the third one’s just gonna you’re just gonna correct everything Doesn’t it that doesn’t give me a ton of confidence I’m not I’m not just budgeting in the playoff emergence of Darius Garland. I can’t do that. I can’t do that Deandre Hunter
Good playoff numbers in very limited playoff experience has never been out of the first round. And his Hawks teams, like he has decent, I think they had one series against Boston. Numbers are decent against Boston, but it’s like, just you’re gonna see a different version of Boston if you see them in the conference finals. You know what I mean? So there’s just, you know, it’s not just past performance. Like how many guys,
Evan Mobley, Ty Dre, how many guys are just having seasons we just never saw coming? And we had, you know, you had to wait long stretches of the regular season to see if it’s sustainable in that regard. And then to do it in the playoffs is another completely different hill to climb. just is. It just is. I’m not saying I think the Cavs are going to be like what they’re showing us is more real than not. But
Chris (45:48.939)
Mm-hmm.
Jimmy Watkins (46:10.055)
There’s the flowy offense works less well when the team has time to, to scout it. You’re it’s going to come down to beat the dude in front of you. We’ve had this conversation several times now, and I just need to see more proof from the key members, the key non-Donald Mitchell members of this team, that they could do that before I’m ready to again, pick them to make the finals against a seasoned champion.
Ethan Sands (46:33.088)
to be very
Chris (46:33.805)
The other thing to say here and to remember here is that when you do a daily podcast and you have as many takes as you do, so many of those are going to age like milk. It’s just going, we all have them. Christ Almighty, I thought Jimmy Claussen was gonna be a star and I was pounding the table years ago for the Browns to draft him. He was such a bum.
In the NFL, so bad in the NFL that age like milk. Like I had an allegiance of Claussen supporters on my side and we all just went off the cliff. All of us together. But, but I was the driver of that thing. So look, when you’ve been in this business as long as we have, and you do these daily podcasts and you write and cover a team on a daily basis.
And there’s so many things that you write and so many things that you say. I mean, you’re going to be lucky if you’re a 300 hitter. Honestly, you are. So many of these things are going to age like milk. So that’s the same way for, you know, Brian Winters, Kendrick Perkins, Tim Bontemps, and whoever you want to talk about nationally when you don’t like their opinion. So when you have somebody...
comparing Evan Mobley to Derek Favors in the past and clearly that is not the case. That is nothing close to the case at this point in time. I mean you’re probably gonna hang on to that one for a while and you’re gonna needle that guy with that. Hey, remember that time that you did this? what do you think about Evan Mobley now, huh? Derek Favors light? I think not. Yeah, I mean that just comes with the territory.
So I think that’s part of, know, Cav’s Nation jumping on somebody nationally, especially when it has proven to be quite an outlandish take at this point in time. But that just happens. That just comes with the territory. Shoot, there’s probably something on the podcast that I said last week that has already aged terribly.
Ethan Sands (48:52.3)
And I want to be.
Ethan Sands (48:57.966)
The aggregators will let you know, Chris, that’s for sure.
Chris (49:01.613)
I mean, Hey, my Tyrese Halliburton for fifth on the ESPN straw. I might be the only person when straw poll comes out and it goes on ESPN.com and there’s one person that put Tyrese Halliburton on the top five of their MVP ballot. You know where that came from. That might age terribly.
Ethan Sands (49:21.358)
Gary Washburn still gets crap for voting for Carmelo Anthony and not allowing LeBron to be the unanimous rookie of the year. I still remember those takes. He still talks about it on his podcast about how, like, my God, people keep bringing it up. things follow you for sure.
Chris (49:30.573)
Yeah.
Chris (49:41.463)
Yeah, a couple of years ago, one of the voters put Andre Drummond at the top of his defensive player of the year ballot. People were like, what the hell? Was that a mistake? Did you click the wrong name? Were you going for Anthony Davis? And he was kind of in the range because he’s got a D last name and Drummond’s got a D last name. And then he doubled down with a column that said, I voted for Andre Drummond because he led the NBA in rebound.
Ethan Sands (50:08.598)
I just think it’s so no.
Chris (50:09.443)
That certainly didn’t age well. I mean, those things happen. We all have moments like that.
Ethan Sands (50:14.464)
And I just, think it’s so important because there are people, and I’m not going to name names, that cover the game and nationally and all these things that like do not attend games until like the NBA finals. You cannot say that about Tim Bomb Temps. Like he is at these games. Whether or not he’s at a lot of Cavs games, that depends if they’re good or not, right? But I think it’s fair to say that he has been in this game long enough to have a skeptical
Chris (50:32.141)
Yeah. Yeah.
Ethan Sands (50:44.486)
approach to the cleveland cavaliers and and to be very fair. We’ve been skeptical on this podcast Sure, we’ve talked about how great they’ve been but we have all said that this cows team I i’ve looked on I looked on etsy to see how cheap it would be to make us shirts so that just read you gotta show us because we’ve all used this line throughout this throughout the podcast this year at some point I think
Chris (50:54.488)
Yeah.
Chris (51:06.541)
Ha
Ethan Sands (51:12.162)
Jimmy might have already submitted for copyright because he said it at the very beginning. You gotta show us, you gotta show me that this Cavs team is able to perform in the playoff.
Chris (51:24.961)
Instead of let him know, it’s let us know.
Jimmy Watkins (51:28.007)
Let us know exactly. But here’s a hot take for you. Defending champion with just years and years of deep playoff runs might be a little bit more prepared for the playoffs than team that has won one playoff series. Bold, really bold.
Chris (51:44.397)
Yeah.
Ethan Sands (51:49.742)
Thank you for ending the podcast with your boldest take of the year. Thank you. All right. With that being said, that’ll wrap up today’s episode of the Wine and Gold Talk podcast. But remember to become a Cavs Insider and interact with Chris, me and Jimmy by subscribing to Subtext. Tomorrow’s episode is going to be a Hey Chris podcast. So send in your questions when you have to do so by subscribing to Subtext or
You can tell us how crazy we sound on the podcast or who you want to put in your fist spot or who you think should win the MVP between Shay Gilder’s Alexander and Nicole Jokic. To do all of these things.
Chris (52:29.847)
I put Yokich number one by the way in case anybody wanted to know.
Ethan Sands (52:33.59)
Now this is going to start another argument for a different day. Anyway, sign up for a 14 day free trial or visit cleveland.com slash calves and click on the blue bar at the top of the page. If you don’t like it, that’s fine. All you have to do is text the word stop. It’s easy, but we can tell you that the people who sign up stick around because this is the best way to get insider coverage on the calves from me, Chris and Jimmy. This isn’t just our podcast. It’s your podcast.
And the only way to have your voice heard is through subtext. Y’all be safe. We out.