(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)
By Mark Eckel
If past history tells us anything it is less than 50-50 that the Green Bay Packers will have the 23rd overall pick on Day One of the NFL draft.
This will be the eighth draft for Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and in his first seven he has traded either up, or down in the first round four times. In his first draft back in 2018, he traded both up and down.
So what would it cost the Packers to move up from No. 23 if one of the players they covet is a top 20 pick? And how high can they go to get that player?
According to the draft chart used by most teams (there are a few different ones out there now), if the Packers were to package their second-round pick (No. 54) with No. 23 they could move up as high as No. 13 (currently owned by the Miami Dolphins) or No. 14 (Indianapolis Colts). It's unlikely Gutekunst would part with a second-rounder, but if there's someone he really loves, who knows?
If said player drops a little further the Packers could use their third-round pick (No. 87) along with No. 23 and get to No. 18 (Seattle, who also loves to trade). In that scenario the Seahawks, according to the chart, would send a sixth-round pick back to the Packers as well.
In 2018, Gutekunst sent pick No. 27, along with a third-round (76) and a sixth-round (186) pick to Seattle for No 18 overall which he used to select cornerback Jaire Alexander.
In 2019, Gutekunst sent pick No. 30 along with two fourth-round picks (114 and 118) to Seattle for pick No. 21 which he used to select safety Darnell Savage.
Some times it works, some times it doesn't. But the point is there is history with Seattle and general manager John Schneider.
The Packers other "trade-ups'' came in 2020 when they went just four spots up from No. 30 to No. 26 to select quarterback Jordan Love. That cost a fourth-round pick sent to the Miami Dolphins. And in 2023 there was the flip with the New York Jets of No. 13 for No. 15 in the Aaron Rodgers deal.
What about a trade down from No. 23? What could the Packers get in return in a draft where a lot of scouts think the second and third rounds are the strengths of the draft? And how far down would the Packers go?
If they were to trade with the Buffalo Bills (who have 10 total picks including an extra second and may be willing to make a move) and slide down to No. 30 the chart says the Bills would have to give up a third-round pick (94) and a sixth-round pick. Problem is the Bills don't have a third-round pick. Would two fourth-round picks (109, 132) and a fifth (169) be enough? Or if you want to get real complicated, how about No. 23 and the Pack's third (87) for No. 30, a second (62), and a sixth?
Should the Baltimore Ravens want to move up from No. 27 to No. 23, the chart says both of the Ravens fourth-round picks (129 and 136) would be almost perfect compensation.
Finally, if the Kansas City Chiefs wanted to go from No. 31 to No. 23, the chart suggests Andy Reid and Co. send the Packers a third-round pick (No. 95) and a fourth-round pick (No. 133).
Would the Packers trade out of the first-round entirely with the event being held in Titletown? That's a story for another day.