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Re-assessing the Chicago Bears' Salary Cap Outlook Heading into the Draft

With April upon us, the NFL draft is less than four weeks away. By now, free agent spending is out of the way for most of the NFL’s 32 teams. Like the Chicago Bears, certain clubs went fast and heavy out of the gate. General manager Ryan Poles and the front office didn’t wait until the legal negotiation period to start making moves, either. They executed a pair of trades for Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney the week before the start of the new league year.

Once the negotiation period began, Chicago quickly struck pacts with three free agents: center Drew Dalman, defensive lineman Dayo Odeyingbo, and veteran defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. In a week, the Bears had five impact additions with a combined cap hit of $55.14 million. It would have been higher if not for the back-loaded cap hits of Odeyingbo and Jarrett. For as quickly as the action began for the Bears, largely due to Poles’ unwillingness to stretch beyond his means in future years.

Through the end of March, the Bears re-signed 12 of their own free agents (including three exclusive rights players and an unrestricted tender), acquired two through trades, and signed free agents in March. Contrary to prior offseasons, Chicago’s front office hasn’t been as interested in adding quantity in free agency, but rather quality contributors and retaining more of their own pending free agents.

Poles’ new approach can be attributed to a few things:

All but a handful of players are ones that he acquired.

The time for constant roster turnover has passed. With a new head coach in the fold, the focus has shifted to providing the new coaching staff with the proper scheme fits.

The Bears are in a position where they should be able to start winning now.

No matter the reasons why, Poles is smack-dab in the middle of his fourth offseason as the team’s general manager. In addition, he was allowed to hire a second coach, despite amassing a (15-36) record over his first three years at the helm. The excuses have run out, and the time to win is now. Now the Bears will enter a delicate balancing act where they must continue to aggressively add talent, while also being mindful of future cap years. Granted, it’s much easier to accomplish with a quarterback on a rookie contract, but the window is tight and must be treated with caution.

Heading into the draft, the Bears are in good shape. They aren’t entering draft weekend with multiple gaping holes on their roster for the first time in recent memory. Now, that’s not to say that they don’t have areas of need, but thanks to their approach during the opening stages of free agency, they can sit back and allow the board to come to them, without feeling the need to reach at certain positions.

SPORTS-FBN-BIGGS-COLUMN-TB Audrey Richardson/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Where They Currently Stand

Roster: 68

Available Cap Space: $14,642,198

Projected Draft Class Cost: $5,584,402

Projected In-Season Cost: $9,000,000

Projected Cap Space (After Expected Costs): $57,796

Cap numbers above are provided by Over The Cap

As seen above, without a cap-clearing move or two, the Bears are all but done spending this offseason on any player that doesn’t come at veteran’s minimum or slightly above. We’ll dive more into potential cap-clearing moves a little later, but for now, let’s examine where Chicago currently stands heading into the draft later this month.

With a roster of 68 players, the Bears have 22 open roster spots (without making any additional moves, which will likely happen during the priority undrafted free agent period). Assuming the Bears stick at a seven-man draft class, that leaves 15 spots open for undrafted free agents and any additional veteran signings. In 2024, the Bears signed a total of 13 undrafted players, nine of whom came before rookie mini-camp and the rest followed after that weekend. Expecting that they’ll follow a similar trend, fans can probably expect a few veterans to come from rookie mini-camp and a few more smaller moves (via signings or preseason trades) to come in August and early September. In other words, their draft class should be the final big piece of their 2025 roster, outside of a surprise move or two (i.e., Chris Williams, Darrell Taylor, DeAndre Carter in 2024).

Potential Cap-Saving Measures

Poles has kept his cap practices pretty basic through his first four years in Chicago. Most of the contracts he’s handed out have come with a slight backload in Year 1, followed by straight hits in the following years of each deal. The general manager has avoided contract restructures that yield short-term cap savings, with longer-term ramifications to their flexibility.

Could this year be different? Call it a hunch, but it’s safe to assume we’ll see a few cap-saving measures along the way that don’t come in the form of cuts.

The Bears can avoid restructuring a deal (or two) in a few ways, most of which involve extensions. Joe Thuney is the primary name that comes to mind. The 32-year-old comes to Chicago on the final year of his deal. Right now, he will cost the team a flat $16 million for 2025. Initial rumors have revealed that Thuney could look for a two or three-year extension to finish out his storied NFL career. Of course, extending a nine-year veteran is always risky, but the four-time Super Bowl Champion has shown no signs of slowing down.

Assuming that Poles didn’t trade a 2026 fourth-round selection for one year of Thuney, a three-year extension could make the most sense for both sides. Make no mistake, this won’t be a cheap deal. Age will always knock down the annual value of a contract, but fans should still expect him to come away as one of the league’s highest-paid guards. After all, he’s a four-time All-Pro and arguably one of the Top five interior offensive linemen in football today.

Projecting contract extensions can always be tricky, especially with an older veteran. If Thuney were Jonah Jackson’s age, he would likely get somewhere between $23 and $25 million annually. Luckily for the Bears, his cost and overall years should remain lower simply due to the tread left on his playing career.

A three-year, $60 million contract with $36 million guaranteed. Looking at the other top contracts signed by guards recently, the going rate for full guarantees is around the 60% range. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the overall guarantees on this type of contract came in at a flat $40 million. No matter how they choose to structure the deal, this will be a two-year guarantee with an option for Year 3 with a reduced dead figure to make it easy for the Bears to get out of. In that case, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them combine 2025’s money into the overall structure. If they did that, fans could expect a bulk of his $15.5 million base salary for this season to be converted into a signing bonus. Not only would that help the Bears not give Thuney too much additional cash this season, but it would also lower his cap hit and give Chicago some immediate relief this season. Poles did something similar with DJ Moore last year when he gave him a four-year extension. It lowered his 2024 cap hit, making three of his next four years a flat charge of $28.5 million annually. The general expectation would be that Thuney’s 2025 cap hit would be lowered to somewhere in the $8 to $10 million range. Assuming a $60 million extension over three years, his annual flat cap hit for 2026-2028 would be around $22 to just under $23 million per season.

Clearing a quick $6 to $8 million in cap space could be all the Bears need in breathing room for the upcoming season. That would be assuming they aren’t looking to make any ground-breaking moves before the season or during the trade deadline in the middle of the season. Theoretically, the team could also look to extend nickel back Kyler Gordon and save a million or two by employing a similar strategy. In reality, an extension for Gordon is more likely to eat a million (or two) of cap space, though.

Considering the addition of Jarrett to the defensive interior, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Bears ask Chris Williams to take a pay cut before the start of the season. Earlier in March, they extended a first right of refusal restricted free agent tender, which cost them $3.263 million. Barring an injury, Williams would be fourth in the team’s rotation and the third three-technique on the roster. Maybe defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will feel differently, but that shouldn’t be worth anywhere near his current price tag, especially with Jonathan Ford on the roster at $1.03 million. Ford is arguably a more well-rounded player and would come at a fraction of the cost.

Releasing backup interior offensive lineman Ryan Bates could save $3.4 million, but he would have already made $600,000 by the time training camp rolls around and is currently projected to be their first interior option off the bench. Depending on what the team does in the draft at safety, veteran Kevin Byard could become a pay cut or release candidate. None of his $7 million base salary is guaranteed, and the team would only incur a $1.5 million dead cap charge by releasing him post-draft. None of these moves seems likely, but they are worth keeping in the back of your mind as they move into training camp.

Lastly, Poles could opt to clear a quick $13.2-$15.7 million by simply restructuring one of their highest-paid players. Montez Sweat ($20.9 million) and Moore ($20.65 million) are the two players whose base salaries have eclipsed the $20 million mark this season. They could clear a substantial amount of space quickly by doing a simple restructure and converting their base salaries into signing bonuses. Of course, any restructuring like that will have consequences in the future.

Here are two examples of what the Bears can do:

Montez Sweat: Current base salary of $25.086 million. A simple restructure at the lowest base salary would net the Bears $13.221 million in savings for this year. Sweat’s cap hits for 2026 and 2027 would jump from $25.085 million to $31.695 million, with no real “out” until the final year of his deal in 2027. This would have a net-negative impact of $6.61 million for the following two years. The 29-year-old has three years remaining on his deal with a potential out following this season with a post-June 1st release.

DJ Moore: Current base salary of $24.9 million. A simple restructure at the lowest base salary would net the Bears $15.716 million in savings this year. Moore’s cap hits for 2026 through 2028 would jump from $28.5 million to $32.429 million. The team’s first real “out” wouldn’t be until after 2026 and would still incur a $12 million dead charge. The soon-to-be 28-year-old’s first true out would come in 2027, potentially saving $20.5 million.

Restructuring any player to create cap space is risky business, but if Poles chooses to go in that direction, Moore is the best candidate for the move. Not only does he have more years remaining on his contract, but he’s the younger player by almost two years. Even with a simple restructure for maximum savings, a projected cap figure of $32.429 million wouldn’t be completely out of whack considering his past production.

Chicago Bears v Green Bay Packers Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

A Quick Look Ahead At 2026

Over The Cap is currently projecting a base salary cap of $295.5 million for the 2026 season. Considering 2025 was the last year of the league’s COVID recoup, it’s highly likely that the final cap figure for next season will be at or over the $300 million mark. Especially if the league’s push for an 18-game season makes any progress over the next few months.

Using the $295.5 million figure for next season, the Bears would go into next offseason with $54.522 million in cap space. Those figures do not factor in this year’s draft class (which should be around $6.5 million in effective space), nor do they account for any extensions for Thuney or Gordon. Finally, that would still leave the Bears around 15 players short of the 51-player minimum in salary cap accounting (roughly $13 million in costs).

Without getting too specific as to what that might look like, it’s clear that Chicago will be much tighter against the cap in 2026. While that might worry some fans, it’s best to remember that most teams have to clear cap space and be smarter with their money, the better their roster gets. Fortunately for the Bears, they’ll have multiple cap-clearing moves they can make next season.

RG Jonah Jackson $18 million savings ($25 million cap hit)

LB Tremaine Edmunds $15 million savings ($17.438 million cap hit)

RB D’Andre Swift $7.5 million savings ($8.33 million cap hit)

TE Cole Kmet $8.4 million savings ($11.6 million cap hit)

K Cairo Santos $2.64 million savings ($3.76 million cap hit)

To put it bluntly, the Bears’ days of leading the league in available cap space heading into free agency are gone. Poles will need to continue to be more selective in free agency. More importantly, he’ll need to start hitting at a higher rate on his draft picks because the time for younger, cheaper players to supplement the roster is coming next year and beyond. That doesn’t mean they won’t be able to make moves, but their flexibility will be more limited. As we’ve learned over the last few years, teams can always clear cap space at the drop of a hat, but to remain in contention after a team’s quarterback signs an extension, the ability to have draft picks contribute at high levels becomes extremely important.

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