Presented by Lloyds Banking Group
London Playbook
By EMILIO CASALICCHIO
with NOAH KEATE
Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.
TUESDAY CHEAT SHEET
— The Labour government is willing to roll out the red carpet for Donald Trump even while blanket U.S. tariffs are crippling British industries.
— Government officials are not denying reports the British offer to the Americans includes scrapping the tech barons tax and reducing agricultural tariffs.
— The U.S. has given its formal blessing to the controversial Chagos Island deal — in a MAGA reprieve for Keir Starmer.
— Ministers are adding Russia to their enhanced foreign influence list. Still no word on China.
— We round up a bunch of the fake news MPs are peddling for April Fool’s Day.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Right now, over 1.5 million households across the country are on waiting lists for social housing. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion of funding to the sector since 2018. Find out what’s ahead**
TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
CHURCHILL, BUST: Despite preparing to smash the U.K. with a fresh tariff tsunami, ignoring Britain’s requests on Ukraine and failing to rebuke his top team for insulting and spreading misinformation about the country, the Labour government is still eager to roll out the red carpet for Donald Trump in a lavish state visit. The so-called special relationship is alive and well.
Unthinkable! Deputy PM Angela Rayner told Radio 2 this afternoon it would be “ridiculous” to cancel the historic second state visit Downing Street requested the king extend to Trump — an honor former U.S. leaders who did not torment Britain never received. “I don’t think that’s where we’re at at all,” she told host Jeremy Vine. “It’s not about who visits the king or not. It’s about putting the British interest first.”
The British interest not first: Expectations are that the U.S. administration will announce its planned tariff “liberation” (something of a misnomer) at 8 p.m. U.K. time tomorrow night. It’s the same hour the car tariffs were revealed last week, so sounds about right. The British government is braced for the new duties to take effect eight hours later (when the car tariffs also come in) but nothing is confirmed and there could be a longer gap. The assumption appears to be a 20 percent blanket tariff on all goods entering the U.S., which nations can then negotiate down from. Again, no one knows the details for sure.
The MAGA interest: Asked by Playbook PM whether Keir Starmer believes it would be appropriate for the Trump state visit to go ahead while the U.K. gasps for breath under a blanket of American tariffs, a Downing Street spokesperson said: “The prime minister looks forward to the state visit.” The government claims state visit invites are all down to Buckingham Palace — which no one in Westminster believes for a second — and that the red carpet treatment is separate from the trade dispute.
Trade dispute deets: Times Pol Ed Steven Swinford scooped the negotiating offer the U.K. has put together in the hope of dodging new tariffs or seeing them lifted as soon as possible. The tech barons tax will be ditched, AI regulation will be lighter-touch and agricultural tariffs on U.S. goods will be lowered, he reported — but British food standards rules will not change. Government aides did not contradict the report.
The most galling bit is … the deal is good to go, but the U.S. is refusing to sign until after the tariffs are imposed.
Claiming a weird kind of win: The apparent progress in negotiations is allowing the U.K. government to spin being slapped with cripping tariffs as a great success. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Radio 4 this morning Britain is in “the best possible position of any country to reach an agreement” on seeing the duties lifted. Downing Street argued negotiations that would in normal times take months or years have been done in weeks.
Although bear in mind: Negotiations do have a habit of moving fast when one side concedes all demands.
No giving in here: Asked whether the old Kemi Badenoch adage that “when Starmer negotiates Britain loses” rings true here, the PM’s spokesperson insisted not, adding that discussions on a tariff-killing deal are at an “advanced stage.” The PM himself rejected the suggestion he had been “played” by Trump, in a clip for Sky News. “It’s obviously in our national interest to have a close working relationship with the U.S., which we’ve had for decades, and I want to ensure we have for decades to come,” he said.
To be fair … the U.K. is not alone in failing to dodge these tariffs. And it’s better to be MAGA collateral than a direct target of Orange Wrath, as the trade nerds insist.
And so … the scrambling continues. Foreign Secretary David Lammy told the Commons this afternoon the “intense conversations” with the U.S. on some kind of trade deal will not cease. The government even sent Chancellor Rachel Reeves in to bat for Britain, in a phone call with her American counterpart Scott Bessent last night, Downing Street confirmed.
Biting their fingertips: While the government appeals to the MAGA jocks, businesses have little choice but to watch and wait. Industrial groups are gearing up to explain the changes to their members once the U.S. plan is revealed tomorrow. There is serious concern in the business world about global goods flooding into Britain and tanking prices if the U.K. does not put up its own tariffs in response. But the appetite for the government to bail sectors out is low.
On the other hand … a smaller influx of global goods resulting from a limited U.S. trade war with Canada, Mexico and China could be good for the U.K., OBR boss David Miles told the Treasury committee this morning. More from our Trade U.K. Pro resporters here, about how trade wars are bad, but trade skirmishes can be bonza.
What the Lib Dems want: Foreign Affairs lead Calum Miller called on the government to convene an emergency COBRA meeting about how to protect businesses and consumers, and come up with retaliatory measures. Is a backup plan even needed now that Vietnam has granted access to live U.K. seafood imports, as the government announced this morning?
No need for the culture department to attend a COBRA: On his Radio 4 interview, Reynolds insisted free speech had “not been a material factor” in the trade negotiations with the U.S., despite efforts from the Telegraph to conflate the two via a “source familiar with trade negotiations.” The Cabinet minister said the U.S. trade department had not raised the issue in talks, after a U.S. state department quango decided to meddle in the case of a British woman fined for breaching buffer zone protest rules around an abortion clinic in Bournemouth.
Culture war is over? Even Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch pushed back against the U.S. meddling, telling LBC this morning she would not want abortion to become as divisive in Britain as it is in America. She said “on balance” Britain is in a good place on its free speech laws.
Speaking of Badenoch: She also supported the government making clear it will not retaliate against the U.S. trade tariffs. “Some people will want us to have trade retaliation; that just makes everyone poorer,” she argued.
Of course … the daily White House press briefing is starting around now. And MAGA-land has a habit of changing its mind from one moment to the next. So all this could be moot in an hour or so.
Who said Trump was a monster? In better MAGA news for Starmer (and to the chagrin of the Conservative right) Downing Street confirmed the Americans have given a formal green light to the controversial Chagos Islands deal. Britain is now hammering out the final details with the Mauritians, a spokesperson for Starmer confirmed this morning. There is said to be no further role for the White House — so hopes on the right that Trump would block the agreement appear to have been dashed.
Still room for outrage: The details of the agreement (including whatever cash is being handed over to Mauritius) will be pored over among Conservatives. Although don’t expect full transparency, natch. “The question is what we make public,” one government official told my POLITICO colleague Dan Bloom, who also hears ratification of the Chagos treaty in parliament could take a year.
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
SECOND FIRS: The Russian state and President Vladimir Putin have been placed in the higher tier of a U.K. scheme aimed at cracking down on foreign interference in Britain. Security Minister Dan Jarvis told the Commons this afternoon Russia will join Iran in the “enhanced tier” of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme — meaning more red tape for organizations in Britain seeking to exert pro-Russian political influence.
But but but: The usual elephant in the room is whether China will also be added to the upper tier of the scheme. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp urged Jarvis to place the Asian giant in the same group as Iran and Russia. But although he refused to rule it out, Jarvis did not confirm the government would do so.
WHAT THE CONSERVATIVES WANT TO TALK ABOUT: The rising cost of living, of course. Kemi Badenoch and Mel Stride appeared in front of what Mail Pol Ed Jason Groves said looked like an “abandoned mattress,” to attack the rise in employer national insurance. During a press conference at CCHQ, the Conservative leader refused to spell out what she would do instead to raise public cash. So Labour argued the Tories were arguing for lower public investment.
What Badenoch CBA to talk about: Endless Netflix shows she doesn’t have time to watch. She said she had not seen Adolescence (the show about the ills of social media SW1 is obsessing over) because, “I’m not going to watch every single thing that everybody’s watching on Netflix.” Clip here. Playbook PM can relate.
Going further: Badenoch told GB News the PM inviting Adolescence writers and related charities into Downing Street this week was a “gimmick” and pivoted back to bills. Full quote here.
Gimmick or not: Labour MP Luke Charters writes in HuffPost that Adolescence raised the less-discussed issue of social media’s impact on body image in young men. He’s urging Ofcom and the Advertising Standards Agency to review the marketing of creatine, supplements and low-carb diets to young children.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: RAF jets patrolling Polish airspace as part of a NATO “enhanced air policing mission,” as the MoD announced.
What else the government wants to talk about: Claims changes to chemicals regulation red tape will save businesses tons of cash. Details here.
**SHORT SENTENCES (BILL):**The government published its bill blocking the Sentencing Council from recommending pre-sentence reports based on race or other minority characteristics. See it here. Presenting the new legislation in the Commons, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood said new rules would “prohibit the council from making guidelines about pre-sentence reports with specific reference to the offender’s personal characteristics, such as their race, religion or belief or cultural background.” Despite claiming a win, Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick still suggested the head of the Sentencing Council should resign.
WOULD TATE TO SEE THESE BROS ESCAPE: A Labour MP urged the government to fight to prevent controversial manosphere guru Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan (both accused of sexual offenses) fleeing Romania for the UAE. Milton Keynes Central MP Emily Darlington wrote to Home Secretary Yvette Cooper asking her to “use every power” to ensure the pair are returned to Britain to “answer to the allegations made against them.”
ELON TIME COMING: Democracy Minister Rushanara Ali confirmed the government could boost safeguards against foreign political donations via more recipient checks amid hurdles for corporate donations. More from the BBC.
NO SMALL FORTUNE: Councils across England spent more than £3.7 billion on placements for SEND pupils at independent schools in the last three financial years, with the yearly figure increasing from £1 billion in 2021-22 to £1.4 billion in 2023-24. ITV’s Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe got the eyewatering stats.
GO FISH: The government has rejected an EU plan to tie talks on fishing rights to other topics in Keir Starmer’s EU reset — including a defense and security pact, my POLITICO colleague Jon Stone writes in. Speaking at the Commons environment committee today Fishing Minister Daniel Zeichner said there would be “no linkage” between the areas, adding: “The French will say what they will say, but we are absolutely determined to stand up for the interests of the U.K. fishing industry.”
GROWING PAINS: The Cabinet Office has launched a probe into the Office for National Statistics to determine the cause of flaws in economic data, the FT reveals. The paper also reports apparent progress in attracting investors into the Sizewell C nuclear power plant.
SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS
FOOLING AROUND: April Fool’s Day comes around quicker every year and plenty of MPs got in on the act this time round — Health Secretary Wes Streeting claimed he was making a cameo on “Coronation Street” to mark the NHS’ 77th birthday … Labour MP Dawn Butlerwas appointed minister for hope, good vibes and positivity with a remit to deliver “smiles per capita” … Scottish Labour MP Scott Arthursaid Edinburgh council had partnered with Blackpool to bring an “open-top tram experience” to the city from July … Labour rebel Clive Lewisimagined a parallel universe (in hope rather than expectation) where the government accepted his private members’ bill creating a Citizens’ Assembly on water ownership … Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood went Meta (on X) by declaring April Fool’s Day canceled as “no made up prank could match the unbelievable sh*t going on in the world right now” … Labour’s David Taylor claimed the APPG for Only Children failed to elect a chair as all members got one vote each … Shadow Education Minister Neil O’Brien declared a future Tory government would ban Corporate Memphis from the U.K. … and Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage posted a video getting a tattoo, except it was clearly a temporary Vote Reform bulldog. On brand to the end.
TWEET REPEALED: Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick briefly retweeted a post from ex-Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe calling for a Great Repeal Act to return “total power to parliament” … before deleting said retweet (h/t the Spectator’s James Heale.)
A TASTE OF ABUSE: London Mayor Sadiq Khan shared a thread of the racist abuse he receives online.
BEYOND THE M25
AROUND TAIWAN: China staged military drills off Taiwan’s north, south and east coasts as a “stern warning” against separatism with its military video calling Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te a “parasite.” Taiwan sent warships in response to China’s navy approaching its shores. Reuters has further details.
IN FRANCE: National Rally President Jordan Bardella confirmed he would stick by Marine Le Pen’s side after she was found guilty of embezzlement and prevented from running in the 2027 presidential election. Bardella said “the least I owe her is to continue the fight with her until the end” in his first interview since her conviction, but would not comment on whether he’d replace her as a candidate if her appeals fail. My colleague Giorgio Leali has more info.
DIFFERENT TAKES: Conservative former leader William Hague told Times Radio the decision to block Le Pen from the race “does look like judicial overreach” and “will reduce the credibility of the judiciary.” But current leader Kemi Badenoch said the verdict was not undemocratic and she respects the rule of law.
OFF TO ITALY: JD Vance will visit Italy later this month, the U.S. Embassy in Rome told the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Tuesday. The trip would mark his third time in Europe since becoming U.S. vice president as Italian PM Giorgia Meloni tries to bolster transatlantic relations. Bloomberg has more.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Tonight over, 164,000 children will go to bed in temporary accommodation. They will face real consequences over the course of their lives such as poorer health, lower wages and fewer opportunities. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion in funding to the sector since 2018. We are going further – converting decommissioned data centers and former office sites into social housing, providing £200 million of funding for local projects, and working with the Government to unlock investment. Together with Crisis, we are calling for one million more homes at social rent over the next decade. Find out what's ahead.**
TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on the increase in household bills including water, energy and council tax … as does ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) looks ahead to Donald Trump imposing tariffs on “liberation day” Wednesday.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Unite the Union National Lead Officer Onay Kasab (5.05 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury James Murray … French Minister Delegate for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad … International Chamber of Commerce U.K. Secretary General Chris Southworth … former sub-postmaster Lee Castleton … the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe and the Sun’s Noa Hoffman (both 6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Former Supreme Court Justice Jonathan Sumption … Make UK’s Richard Rumbelow.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross (5.30 p.m.) … Burma Human Rights Network Executive Director Kyaw Win (6.45 p.m.).
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Former Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): James Murray … Center for China and Globalization Vice President Victor Gao … Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Neale Richmond … Podcaster and former Cabinet Minister Rory Stewart.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): James Murray … Tory peer Ed Vaizey … former Labour MP Caroline Flint.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Labour MP Satvir Kaur … Tory MP Roger Gale … the Spectator’s William Atkinson … podcaster Aid Thompsin.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Labour peer Charlie Falconer.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Tory peer Jacqueline Foster … former Labour adviser Matthew Torbitt.
GBN Tonight (GB News, 7 p.m.): Labour MP Graham Stringer … former Cabinet Minister Ranil Jayawardena … former Lib Dem adviser Jo Phillips.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov … former Labour PPC Kevin Craig.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT:Jamie Whitehead.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Talk’s Peter Cardwell and journo Alicia Fitzgerald… Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Author Christina Patterson and LBC’s Ali Miraj.
TOMORROW’S WORLD
HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The public accounts committee has a report out about the culture department and its management of Covid-19 loans.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Nurseries, infrastructure and foreign investment.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DOESN’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT: Blanket U.S. tariffs on all goods imports are expected to be announced.
KEEPING THE DREAM ALIVE: MPs who support the assisted dying legislation including bill sponsor Kim Leadbeater and Conservative Andrew Mitchell to discuss the law, from 9 a.m. in Mitchell’s office.
NOT FLYING HIGH: Heathrow boss Thomas Woldbye and National Grid President Alice Delahunty face a grilling about the recent airport closure, at the transport committee from 9.15 a.m.
COURT CIRCULAR: It’s the second day of a hearing about the government charging VAT on private schools, after some providers took it to court. Starting from 10.30 a.m.
ONE FOR THE NERDS: Constitutional bigwigs Jonathan Sumption and Brenda Hale appear at the Lords constitution committee from 10.30 a.m. to discuss the rule of law.
IN THE COMMONS: Northern Ireland questions kicks things off at 11.30 a.m. before PMQs then some legislative tweaks.
BEYOND THE M25: Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham delivers an Institute for Government speech about the future of devolution, at 1.30 p.m.
HERMER RIGHTS: Lightining rod Attorney General Richard Hermer appears at the joint committee on human rights from 2.15 p.m.
RACH AGAINST THE MPs: Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces the Treasury Committee from 2.30 p.m. after delivering her spring statement.
AFTER HOURS COMMITTEE: Ministers Dan Jarvis and Rushanara Ali appear at the Speaker’s conference committee on the security of MPs, candidates and elections, from 5 p.m.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Lamb dhansak with rice and mint yoghurt; tofu poke bowl with jasmine rice, cherry mango, cucumber salsa, edamame beans and lime dressing; seared tuna with sweet potato wedges, red onion, green beans, lemon dressing and parsley and pink peppercorn gremolata … The Debate: Thai salmon and prawn fish cake on green bean, pepper, peanut and red onion salad with chili sauce; roast sumac hispi cabbage with butternut squash hummus, chickpea, cucumber and pomegranate salad; salt beef bap with mustard mayo and gherkin coleslaw … Terrace Cafeteria: Cottage pie; tandoori chicken breast with cauliflower, eggplant and rice; beetroot and mint burger with aioli and lettuce … River Restaurant: Tandoori tuna steak with Bombay potatoes, curried spinach and carrot and coriander purée; roast gammon with trimmings; butternut squash, red pepper and smoked tomato risotto with pepper and tomato bruschetta.
SPOTTED: Welfare cuts rebel Rachel Maskell meeting DWP minister Stephen Timms in Portcullis House first thing this morning.
And at the same time … Conservative MP Katie Lam meeting Lib Dem MP Mike Martin, also in PCH. The pair are seat neighbors, representing Weald of Kent and Tunbridge Wells.
NOW HIRING: The Health Foundation is looking for an “external affairs officer” on a fixed-term contract, dealing with the media and others. Details here.
MOVING ON: UK Anti-Corruption Coalition Comms Manager Stevie Wolfe departs his post on April 11 after two years to become senior coordinator for the APPG on Anti-Corruption and Responsible Tax from April 28.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Former civil servant Sam Freedman on his Substack explores the rise of unelected gurus (namely Morgan McSweeney) in shaping the direction of government. Freedman highlights how prime ministers since David Cameron have had an “all-purpose guru who is responsible for the government’s wider philosophy” and digs into the similarities (and differences) between McSweeney and Dominic Cummings.
What I could be reading in future: Former Unherd Deputy Editor Jacob Furedi is promising political investigations in a new magazine he has launched, named Dispatch.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On April 1, 1964 the Ministry of Defense was created by Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson, bringing together five separate departments with input on war and defense. On the same date in 1999 the minimum wage came into force under the New Labour government. Thread here on the battle to introduce it from the excellent Tides of History Twitter feed.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Stefan Boscia.
THANKS TO: My editor Ali Walker, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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