Something is always about to happen at Arsenal. They increasingly exist on the perpetual cusp of greatness, in a constant state of footballing foreplay, always building. An impossibly exciting future is the other side of a wall they cannot quite summit.
And so on Monday came Mikel Arteta’s annual announcement of a “big” summer of transfers. “We want to increase the depth of the squad,” he said, “but as well we want to increase the quality and the skills that we need to go to the next step”. It’s coming, just you wait.
Of course, his declaration ignores this was supposed to be the season Arsenal took the next step. Eleven BBC pundits predicted Arsenal to win the 2024-25 Premier League.
Opta’s Supercomputer gave them less of a chance – 12.2 per cent to Manchester City’s 82.2 – but after City’s collapse, Arteta’s side were the natural heirs. In a season of change and turmoil, their stability and experience would be invaluable.
“We had a gathering together with all the club and the players were saying to me: ‘we are going to be better, we are going to do it, we want more,’” Arteta said in August.
And yet they appear to be regressing. Now on 58 points after 29 matches, they earned 67 at the same stage last season and 72 the campaign before – leading the league in both situations.
Their defence has remained similarly solid – 24 goals conceded after 29 games is the same as 2023-24, and significantly better than 2022-23. Yet the issue obviously comes in attack, where 53 goals scored this season is some way behind last year (75) and 2022-23 (70).
It would be uncharitable not to accept injuries are among the primary causes for this, with Bukayo Saka about to return from a three-month absence and Mikel Merino regularly utilised at striker while Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus aim for returns next season.
Arsenal have just five goals in their five league matches since Havertz’s injury, but equally had failed to score earlier in the season against Bournemouth, Everton and Newcastle.
At which point attention returns back to Arteta and the club hierarchy. Hidden in the new grand plan to take the next step is an admission the last plan has failed, or at the very least not had sufficient impact.
There was a conscious choice to treat last summer as an opportunity for refinement over regeneration, only signing David Raya, Merino and Riccardo Calafiori permanently.
The latter two have made 11 Premier League starts each, with four of Merino’s as an emergency striker. Given Raya had already been part of the squad on loan, it’s hard to recognise any obvious improvement for a £65m expenditure on the outfield pair.
Arsenal were not to know how great an opportunity this season would present, yet they entered it underprepared regardless.
Three injuries partially derailing a season is not poor luck, it’s poor squad planning, especially when January has come and gone. There was more than a hint of arrogance and myopia behind the assumption only light tweaks were necessary.
Then there’s the question of Arteta’s role in the existing players’ stagnations. Martin Odegaard has just two goals and four assists in the Premier League. William Saliba said last month “I have not been so good”. Gabriel Martinelli has underwhelmed once again.
It is not infeasible that Arteta, still in his first managerial job, needs to alter and adapt his methods to regenerate these talents, alongside new signings.
Responsibility will now land with new sporting director Andrea Berta for this “big” summer window. Martin Zubimendi is reportedly set to join from Real Sociedad in the summer, with a striker second priority.
A left-winger is also on the agenda, and would be a signal the club recognise what is required to actually progress. We are increasingly in “go big or go nowhere” territory.
For the first time under Arteta, Arsenal are getting worse. Of course, this comes with the caveat of a Champions League quarter-final against Real Madrid, aided by no great Premier League expectations to expend unnecessary energy on.
Whether a European trophy would justify every decision up to this point or risk papering over this squad’s obvious flaws – as it did for Chelsea in 2020-21 – is unclear.
But the Arteta era has seen its first inexcusable error, resting on laurels they had not yet earned. Berta’s first transfer window might well be the most crucial in the club’s recent history.