For the Montreal Canadiens, the month of March began with a bang, but ended with a whimper. Consecutive losses—and convincing ones at that—to the St. Louis Blues, Philadelphia Flyers, and Carolina Hurricanes marked the latest trough in fan confidence in what has been a season with more ups and downs than Ivan Demidov’s ice time.
Yet despite their on-ice struggles, the Canadiens ended the week in roughly the same situation as they started it. Heading into their Tuesday tilt against the Blues, the Canadiens led the New York Islanders and Rangers by one point, the Columbus Blue Jackets by two, and the Detroit Red Wings by three. Today, as the calendar turns to April, the Canadiens are level with the Rangers, but are still ahead of the Blue Jackets by two and the Islanders and Red Wings by three.
On the one hand, Montreal should be grateful that their lapse in form has more or less gone unpunished. On the other, perhaps this sort of inconsistency is just par for the course for teams on the playoff bubble. Among the five teams in contention for the Eastern Conference’s second wild card position, the Habs have been the most consistently successful across March. The Canadiens secured a better-than-.500 point percentage for three of the four weeks. The Rangers managed three .500-or-better weeks, but only exceeded the .500 threshold once. The Islanders alternated between excellent and dreadful weeks, while both Detroit and Columbus recorded only one week at .500 or better.
Of course, if every team can get cold at the same time, every team can likewise get hot down the stretch. However, Montreal holds an advantage on paper here as well. While the Canadiens will complete what is arguably their hardest block of games on Tuesday night against the Florida Panthers, all four teams chasing them have yet to enter their gauntlets.
Including the Panthers, the Canadiens have four games (of nine) remaining against teams currently in a playoff position. The Rangers (of eight) and Blue Jackets (of ten) both have six remaining, the Islanders have five (of nine), and the Red Wings go a whopping nine for nine now that Montreal is back into the second wild card. Furthermore, the Rangers, Blue Jackets, and Islanders all have games against each other, while Montreal’s only duel with a wild card contender is the aforementioned matchup with Detroit.
The final card that the Habs hold is that they have performed better against their upcoming opposition than their rivals have against theirs. So far in the 2024-25 campaign, Montreal has played their opponents-to-be a total of 20 times, accumulating 24 points for a point percentage of .600. The Rangers are second best with 18 points in 16 total games (.563), followed by the Blue Jackets (17 in 17, .500), Islanders (16 in 17, .463), and Red Wings (16 in 18, .444). If all five teams maintain these trends, the Habs should be able to extend their advantage atop the race.
Admittedly, the Canadiens statistical superiority in this area is largely powered by their perfect record against the Panthers and Ottawa Senators. Taking those six games out of the equation, the Canadiens only have 12 points in 14 games. The flip side of that conversation is that Montreal should probably have a better chance of success against the likes of the Boston Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks than their .000 point percentage to date would indicate. In an isolated situation and ignoring head-to-head records to this point, the majority of Habs fans would probably prefer to match up against the Blackhawks rather than the Panthers.
To illustrate that point, all five teams have games remaining versus teams against which they have yet to take a point so far this year. The Rangers have three such games, while the other four have two. However, Montreal’s opponents are Boston and Chicago. In contrast, the Rangers have the Tampa Bay Lightning (twice) and Florida Panthers, the Blue Jackets have the Senators twice, the Islanders have the Wild and Rangers, and the Red Wings have the Blues and Dallas Stars. The Canadiens should be more likely to take points from the Blackhawks than the Red Wings from the Blues.
The season is far from over, and the Canadiens’ spot in the post season far from assured. But the Habs have already completed the hardest of their tasks. Rather than having to climb over the opposition, Montreal now enters the home stretch of the race in the lead, with what is on paper the smoothest and most straightforward path to the finish line.
Can they show enough of the consistency that separates playoff teams from bubble teams? The answer is firmly within their hands.