SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the Utah Jazz mailbag, where this week we look at the expected difference between drafting third and fifth in the draft, and in the late lottery versus the early twenties.
Each week we will send out a prompt on X and BlueSky asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.
Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s Jazz mailbag.
Jazz Mailbag: Better To Draft 3rd and 22nd, or 5th and 14th?
In this draft, would you prefer picks 3 and 22 or picks 5 and 14?
— mike keller (@mkellerbuffalo) March 31, 2025
Question: In this draft, would you prefer picks three and 22 or picks five and 14?
Answer: My initial response is you’d rather have three and 22, especially in this year’s class, where there seems to be a relatively clear top three players (or potentially four with VJ Edgecombe), and a drop off after that.
Furthermore, you’ll notice on most mock drafts that between the second half of the lottery through about pick 20, projections are all over the board.
It’s not until you get into the 20s and 30s that we start to see a little more consensus on who should be picked where.
The Jazz are almost guaranteed to finish with one of the two worst records in the NBA after their loss to Charlotte.
Jazz are 3 wins back of the Hornets with 6 games left to play, and haven’t won 3 out of 6 since early November.
Likely locks up a top 6 draft pick.
— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) April 1, 2025
But, I think this question is worthy of more research, specifically looking at picks 3, 5, 14, and 22 that were singled out. After all, until 2018, the lottery was used only to determine the top three picks, giving the third overall pick added lore, while being a “top five pick” brings certain expectations on its own.
Furthermore, the 14th pick is the final pick of the lottery, while the 22nd pick is viewed as relatively low value.
So, let’s dive into what those picks have actually yielded since 2014, the last time the Jazz had a top-five selection, and who the two players a team would walk away with in these scenarios.
Draft Picks Since 2015
3rd and 22nd Overall Pick:
2015: Jahlil Okafor and Bobby Portis
2016: Jaylen Brown and Malachi Richardson
2017: Jayson Tatum and Jarrett Allen
2018: Luka Doncic and Chandler Hutchinson
2019: RJ Barrett and Grant Williams
2020: LaMelo Ball and Zeke Nnaji
2021: Evan Mobley and Isaiah Jackson
2022: Jabari Smith Jr. and Walker Kessler
2023: Scoot Henderson and Dariq Whitehead
2024: Reed Sheppard and DaRon Holmes
5th And 14th Overall Picks:
2015: Mario Hezonja and Cameron Payne
2016: Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine
2017: De’Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo
2018: Trae Young and Michael Porter Jr.
2019: Darius Garland and Romeo Langford
2020: Isaac Okoro and Aaron Nesmith
2021: Jalen Suggs and Moses Moody
2022: Jaden Ivey and Ochai Agbaji
2023: Ausar Thompson and Jordan Hawkins
2024: Ron Holland and Bub Carrington
As initially expected, but perhaps even more lopsided than one would have thought, over the last 10 drafts, it’s been significantly more valuable to have the third and 22nd picks than it is to have the 5th and 14th picks, due entirely to the enormous gap between having the third pick and the fifth pick.
The third overall picks over the last decade include Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Luka Doncic, who are already destined for the Hall of Fame, plus additional All-Star appearances by LaMelo Ball and Evan Mobley.
Today’s single simulation https://t.co/FXkXbE0AfK
Bulls and Spurs jump up pic.twitter.com/4ejSIJ5mGP
— Tankathon.com (@tankathon) April 1, 2025
The fifth pick is not without merit, with De’Aaron Fox and Trae Young having been named All-Stars, but is relatively weak beyond that for teams looking for franchise players.
However, the gap between the 14th and 22nd picks is also notable.
While both feature one All-Star caliber player, the 14th pick has produced at least six quality players (the jury is still out on Jordan Hawkins and Bub Carrington), while the 22nd pick has yielded four quality players, with the outcomes of Dariq Whitehead and DaRon Holmes still pending.
Jazz Mailbag: Where Would Kyle Filipowski Go In A 2024 Re-Draft?
Essentially, if the last 10 years are an indicator of what Jazz fans could expect in the 2025 draft, selecting third produces an All-Star 50 percent of the time, and a Hall of Famer 30 percent of the time.
Slipping to fifth yields an All-Star 20 percent of the time, though it’s too early to project their Hall of Fame candidacy.
The Jazz are currently projected to have a 12.7 percent chance of landing the third overall pick, and a 47.9 percent chance of drafting fifth.
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Ben Anderson is the Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone . Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops, on Instagram @BensHoops, or on BlueSky.