The NFL Draft has always had a marathon story. Trying to project what will happen might be the new American pastime. Excluding compensatory picks, the NFL Draft consists of 224 new players. No one has ever gotten it completely right, and no one ever will, due in large part to the human element. The draft is just as much art as it is science.
What it definitely is not, no matter how many times casual fans say it, is a crapshoot. If the draft takes too much work and analysis for you to make heads or tails of it, just say that. The other giant distinction that so many people are failing to identify, this year specifically, is that the draft is not a race.
The biggest misconception between fan opinion and how NFL front offices attack the draft is not seeing it as a race to the No. 1 guy you want the most. It's also not a race for one guy, it's a puzzle where the intended result is not to get that one guy you want the most, but to get as many of your guys as you can. Getting your 2nd, 20th, and 35th best guys on your board is better than getting your No. 1 and your No. 36.
Most fans only have the time and energy to be invested in the first round or the first 50 picks. When that happens, you are selectively only seeing about 15-20% of the field and therefore can not make any sort of realistic take on the draft overall.
Is the quarterback position the most important on a football field? Yes. Are there teams that people think must take a QB in the first round? Yes. Does that mean that it's a good pick when that QB hungry team drafts one in the first round because they're there? Not necessarily. There is data to suggest teams that go best player available see better success sooner than a team that picks based on need. There is a long history of bad teams picking a QB at the top of the draft when that team was not prepared to begin competing with a rookie QB.
Since rookie wages became slotted, teams aren't as eager to take the QB at the top just because. Rookie QBs forced to play right away because of their draft position, and corresponding salary is also much less common. This sense of a rookie QB on a slotted salary also gave birth to the new NFL rebuild model.
The new approach is to build up most of the roster before drafting the rookie QB so that the team can continue to solidify positions like EDGE, OT, RB, WR, CB, etc first while that QB is on a rookie deal. Then, if the process was completed properly, you have a situation where a young team led by rookie contract Joe Burrow gets to a Super Bowl before the need to pay either Joe Burrow or Ja'Marr Chase big money.
Arguments have been made to suggest the top 3 teams need to take a QB. Some of that is due to subconsciously seeing QBs as greater than everything else. Yet, conversations have begun that no team in the top 3 should realistically take a QB that high this year. TEN and NYG are at least a couple of years away, and CLE just needs a QB that is good at what that system needs.
What if no team in the top 3 took a QB? If no QB goes in the top 3, those top QBs will begin to slide. They slide they'd likely experience would be an Aaron Rodgers like fall. What happens if NYG trades up to 1 and TEN at 3, takes Abdul Carter, and CLE doesn't take a QB at 2? What is critically important to remember is that someone slides every year, and most of it has nothing to do with the ability of that player. It's about needs and wants elsewhere and how the order falls.
TEN, CLE, NYG could take QBs. We see that based on the surface acknowledgment that their current QB situation isn't good enough to be the face of the franchise. For NY, Wilson likely won't be the head signal caller for long, but he could be that for 2 more years. DeShaun Watson is done, and as of March 31st, ownership has finally acknowledged that they "swung big and missed".
Cleveland's perception issue is that they are always waiting for that QB that comes in and is good enough to reverse a 20-year belief that CLE is QB hell. As 2020 and 2023 have shown, that's a playoff team with even a decent QB. Tennessee could take one because they don't have one. They also don't have much at most position groups on that depth chart. But what happens if QBs don't go early? To answer that, teams 4-20 need to be considered:
Call this the rapid fire round of this conversation.
4. New England, doesn't need a QB.
5. Jacksonville, doesn't need a QB.
6. Las Vegas Raiders, traded for Geno Smith, don't need a QB.
7. Jets signed Justin Fields, don't need a QB.
8. Carolina Panthers, don't need a QB.
9. New Orleans Saints, publicly committed to Carr, might not need a QB.
10.Chicago doesn't need a QB.
11. San Francisco, as long as they lock up Brock Purdy, don't need a QB.
12. Dallas paid and committed to Dak Prescott, don't need a QB.
13. Miami doesn't need a QB.
14. Indianapolis, doesn't need a QB.
15. Atlanta definitely doesn't need a QB (recently paid Kirk Cousins a $10M roster bonus, making him the most expensive backup QB in the NFL).
16. Arizona doesn't need a QB.
17. Cincinnati, doesn't need a QB.
18. Seattle Seahawks signed Sam Darnold, don't need a QB.
19. Tampa Bay, doesn't need a QB.
20. Denver doesn't need a QB.
Is the landscape starting to take shape yet? There are two QBs believed to be going in the top third of the first round. However, if even 2 of those top 3 teams don't take a QB, there is almost no team from picks 4-20 that would look seriously at QB. Pittsburgh is an interesting case at 21. Most expect PIT to have a veteran somewhere in the mix (still waiting on Aaron Rodgers). At 21, you start to see the value moving up, taking priority over picking where you stand (especially without a veteran starter).
Now consider the names at the top. Obviously, Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. After QB, names like Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, Mason Graham, Will Campbell, and Will Johnson are all expected to go in the top half of the first.
Leaving out QBs, Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter find themselves on the top tier by themselves. Even if realistically, Travis Hunter stands alone on the top tier, but Carter is a very intriguing prospect. The real meat and potatoes of the first round almost completely come down to QB1, QB2, Travis Hunter, and Abdul Carter. There's a significant tier drop after those four.
At the beginning of this article, the human element was mentioned. Whether it's draft prospects, music, or politics, no one will ever see everything the same. If two scouts tell one GM about two players, the GM will lean one way or the other. If that's not enough, search Cam Ward vs. Shedeur Sanders, so you can see the ocean of people calling either ‘trash'.
The human element also includes emotions, like ‘fear'. Many Front Office people in the NFL knowingly or unknowingly base a significant amount of their personnel decisions on fear. Fear, he won't pan out. Fear of losing my job if I'm wrong. Fear of going against conventional wisdom.
Just during this draft season alone, how many people have voiced concerns about Shedeur because of who his father is? How many have said Travis Hunter is just adequate at both? How many said Campbell's arms are too short? All of that comes from the fear of what if?
The last little factor before we reconstruct this is the strength of the draft class by position groups. The RBs might be the best draft class in over 20 years. The DL draft class is very good. The QBs are not. That's no shade to 2025 QBs. It just is what it is. When the 1983 draft class exists (Elway, Kelly, Marino) and though these guys are still in their prime, the 2018 class exists, no one is going to put the 2025 QBs on that level. At the time, the evaluations were all over the board.
However, in 2025 we can look back and say Baker Mayfield-doing great in Tampa, Sam Darnold-just signed a huge deal with SEA, Josh Allen-the reigning league MVP, Josh Rosen-out of the league, Lamar Jackson-two time league MVP. That's five first round QBs from just 7 years ago. No matter how much someone likes Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward, everyone knows that this draft class does not measure up to 2018 and that darn sure doesn't measure up to 1983. By most accounts, this is a two QB draft class with about 5-7 ‘other guys'. Dart, Shough, Milroe, etc could all go onto have great careers, but the draft is not a barometer for if a player will be good or not, it's about positioning all the players to maximize value within this draft.
Let's consider an actual scenario or two. TEN takes Cam at 1. CLE takes Hunter at 2. NYG take Abdul Carter at 3. Who from pick 4 to pick 20 (without trades) drafts Shedeur Sanders? Maybe New Orleans, who has bigger issues elsewhere? Short of the Saints, there is no argument to be made that any team slotted from 4-20 is in ‘need' of a QB. Considering a scenario with trades, TEN trades #1 to NYG.
Giants take Cam at 1, CLE takes Carter, TEN takes Hunter. Again, what team is taking a QB from 4-20 as they sit? That second scenario inserts the concept most did not consider until last week. If Shedeur is on the board at 4, there is a more than realistic chance that he slides. Again, having absolutely nothing to do with him as a QB.
In that second scenario, as Shedeur would conceptually slide, there would be a number of teams that would consider trading back into the first round to snag Shedeur. This is where the "its not a race to your favorite guy" comes into play. Tennessee has a lot of needs.
Most fans get really trade back happy when that is the case. However, most of the time, trading up is preferable to trading back for teams who have a limited number of needs. Trading back gets you future assets for the beginning of a rebuild. Trading up from the second round maximizes immediate impact.
If you're New York, what sounds better? Cam Ward at 1 (via trade), lose your 34th overall pick and get the best of what's available in the 3rd round? Or, don't trade up, take Abdul Carter at 3, then trade back in (still losing 34) and draft Shedeur Sanders in the teens?
In one scenario, you get Cam Ward and lose 34. The other scenario is you come out of the first round, also losing 34, with Abdul Carter and Shedeur Sanders. If the draft is not a race to your favorite guy and moreover a collection of the best group of players as it relates to your board, going best player available with a top 3 pick and trading back in to get Shedeur is better than any version of taking Cam in the top 3 and getting whatever is left at the top of the third.
Slotted rookie contracts make most things equal. If a guy wants to go #1 but goes #8 or #15, that shouldn't matter as much, and the situation should be viewed above the draft position anyway. It is very different today vs. 2010 and earlier. The Ward and Sanders camps should not be so worried about going high. Going high doesn't translate to a dramatically bigger contract anymore. Chances are great that if Shedeur Sanders ends up with a team that also has Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter, that would be the golden ticket.
Not going #1. Whichever Quarterback goes first, creates a slide scenario for the other guy (between Cam and Shedeur) unless both go top 3. That doesn't mean that the second QB won't be great. It doesn't mean teams are hating on one of these QBs.
It just means teams are doing draft order math and trying to figure out the best combination of players for their franchise. For the last 15 years, going #1 or even the top 5 is only important to the players and families of players getting drafted, and it only lasts for a couple of months.
Once these rookies go through rookie OTAs, full team OTAs, and get to actual training camp, no one cares where they were drafted. The 5th round guy is fighting for a spot just like the 1st round guy. Players in today's era need to get over going #1 and start hoping for the right situation.
If Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward slides, it isn't a hater situation. Its front offices are doing draft order math. Any person in that situation would do the same. If either QB slides, It could be a better situation. If one guy thought to be a top 10 pick is good, getting two of them in the same round has to be better.
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This story was originally published April 1, 2025 at 9:20 PM.