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Arsenal's UCL chances take hit

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LONDON -- It really is just one of those seasons for Arsenal. Even as Bukayo Saka brought a radiant burst of joy back to the Emirates, storm clouds crackled on the horizon. Kylian Mbappe and company a week out, of course it was time for the injuries to smash into the defense with thunderous force.

First Gabriel Magalhaes. For Arsenal's iron man, who has missed just two Premier League games through injury since September 2021, it seemed an innocuous enough threat. Sure, Adama Traore has the afterburners, but Gabriel has been shepherding more intimidating forwards to the nether zone of the Arsenal left for a long time now. Nine times out of 10, this scenario does not particularly test him. Unfortunately for Gabriel, Mikel Arteta and everyone else associated with Arsenal, this is the one-time-out-of-10 year. The chunk Gabriel seemed to be chewing out of his shirt said enough. It's not looking good.

Seven days out from Real Madrid's visit to the Emirates Stadium (Tuesday, live on [Paramount+](https://www.paramountplus.com/?cbscidmt=sports&ftag=PPM-03-10aie0i) at 3 p.m. ET)and arguably Arsenal's player of the season has gone down, a brutal price to pay for a solid 2-1 win over Fulham. This is the man you would want duking it out with Antonio Rudiger at set pieces, the one who could protect the left side of the penalty area from Rodrygo's incursions, the target for every one of those unerring deliveries from Declan Rice and Saka.

This has been the year Gabriel's standing has risen from that of cult hero, all thundering header and teeth lost whenever he runs into Brighton, to one of the best center backs in the game. Arsenal have known he is that good for some time now, Arteta having harnessed the aggression of his early years and forged a hunter.

Losing Gabriel ought to have been quite enough pain for Arsenal. Nowhere near. After a season wrecked by an ACL tear on the opening day, Jurrien Timber has excelled in year two. It takes a long time to have supporters at the Emirates questioning Ben White's place in the side. That is just what they have been doing. Timber is he sort of lockdown defender you would want protecting the right flank from the raids of Vinicius Junior, he might even have been the best replacement for Gabriel at center back too until he jarred his knee blocking Raul Jimenez's shot. He would fight on for another hour before his energy reserves were finally depleted.

Both players will be assessed tomorrow. Before then, there is no sense in sugar coating the damage it would do Arsenal if, they lost one, let alone two of these.

"We don't know how they are going to be," Arteta admitted. "If there are two players in this team who never want to come off it is those two probably. Gabi felt something in his hamstring, we don't know how big that is.

"With Jurrien as well, he already was struggling very early in the game. He managed to continue. At some point he couldn't."

Defense wins Champions League as often as Real Madrid vibes. With Gabriel and William Saliba as their anchor points, Arsenal have a rearguard that is as well-placed as any to at least slow the march of Mbappe and Vinicius. 

When Gabriel, Timber and Saliba have started in leagues Premier and Champions this season, Arsenal have conceded 24 goals in 30 games. Expected goals (xG) against? 0.81. An xG difference of 0.77 is impressive for a team light on forwards.

Blow the sample size up to a bigger level for the Brazilian center back and the difference is apparent. the 45 European and Premier League matches Arsenal have played without Gabriel since the start of 2020-21, they have allowed 1.1 xG per game as opposed to 0.99 with him, about another shot too. 

These are fine margins. Those are what decide ties in the business end of continental competitions.

How many alternates there are remains up in the air. The timeline of "weeks" that Arteta placed on Riccardo Calafiori's return from the knee issue suffered with Italy suggests he is a serious doubt for the first leg at the very least and quite possibly the second eight days later. A niggle to the knee sidelined White, who has played less than two hours of football since returning from surgery. Takehiro Tomiyasu? Maybe one day in the distant future.

"The good thing is it has been like this the whole season," Arteta joked. "You see Martinelli today, you say we missed him three months. You see Bukayo four months, Kai four months, Gabi Jesus, almost the whole season. How we have managed to be where we are with all those injuries, Ben White hasn't participated at all this season. It's what it is. We want it so much that we're going to give it a real go and we are very excited for the next week."

Precious few are still standing. Myles Lewis-Skelly continues to defy any reasonable expectations for an 18-year-old midfielder operating at left back. Even considering a deflection that handed Rodrigo Muniz a late goal, Saliba seemed utterly unmoved by the turmoil around him.

Placed in the right circumstances, Jakub Kiwior is a more than adequate alternate. That means next to Saliba with a run of games in his legs. The latter is not really going to happen and a player with mostly low-stakes minutes since December looked ill at ease when Sander Berge pressed him, let alone when Traore started throwing his weight around.

"The good thing with Jakub is that he's been very reliable," said Arteta, seeing the positives that were there across 74 minutes. "Every time we need him, he's always there, he's available. He does his job, we ask him to play as a left-centre-back, as a right-centre-back, as a left fullback. So, he's ready. He has a smile on his face, you know, he's sad for Gabi, but he really wanted to play as well, and he will be fine."

The story of this night could have been so different. There were positives to be taken. Mikel Merino might look an awkward striker but he has five goals in eight games in the role. This might have been Martinelli's best performance of the season, roasting Timothy Castagne at will. If Madrid have a week spot, it is a right flank where they will have to deploy either Lucas Vazquez or a repurposed Federico Valverde outside Raul Asencio. Martinelli looks ready to go at that.

His backheeled flick of a Merino cross gave the Emirates the moment it had come in expectation of, the perfect return for Saka, turning home at the back post seven minutes after entering the game for Ethan Nwaneri. Not since Rice at the death against Manchester United has this ground erupted like that.

Saka back, Martinelli's form on the up: this really could have been the perfect staging post for the game that really matters. This being Arsenal 2024-25, it was never going to be quite that straightforward. Instead, what should have been a celebration of the return of one star worthy of the big Champions League game on the horizon threatens to be defined by the loss of two.

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