“When the facts change, careful consideration of our response is appropriate,” Ian Blackford, a former SNP leader in Westminster known for his loyalty to the cause, wrote in a Times op-ed in early March that sparked wide debate within the party. “There must now be a concentration of minds on a multilateral approach to achieve nuclear de-escalation.”
While Blackford emphasized that he still supports the eventual removal of the nuclear deterrent, his shift from uni- to multilateralism is a sharp departure from the SNP’s historic position. It also reflects the party’s evolving view on defense over the last few decades, which has seen a shift, from its initial opposition to NATO itself to its more recent embrace of the U.K.'s arming of Ukraine and the hike in defense spending. The SNP only voted to support NATO membership for an independent Scotland in 2012, an issue that divided the party at the time.
Defense policy is reserved to the Westminster U.K. government, with the SNP — which leads the devolved Scottish government — not holding responsibility for it under the current structures of the U.K. But the party has long taken positions on defense and foreign affairs as a signal of what an independent Scotland could look like.
If the party did change its policy, it would be effectively to favor the removal of the weapons, which belong to the U.K. as Britain’s nuclear deterrent, only under agreements obliging other nuclear-armed states to do the same — which is still a far cry from the party’s persistent campaigning on Trident’s immediate removal.
The SNP’s current leader John Swinney publicly rejected Blackford’s argument and reiterated the party’s longtime position. But there is a feeling within the party that given the difficulties posed by calling for the unilateral removal of nuclear weapons at a time of war, the view of the leadership may soon evolve.
“[The change in position] is going to be forced upon them anyway,” a senior SNP figure, granted anonymity like others in this article to talk freely about the party’s internal dynamics, told POLITICO. “The SNP is in a very different position [on defense] from where it was a few years back — and the current stated position is open to challenge.”