In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Wednesday, June 12, 2024, Russian soldiers load a Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile launchers at a firing position as part of Russian military drill intended to train the troops in using tactical nuclear weapons. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP) **FILE**
In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Wednesday, June 12, 2024, Russian soldiers load a Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile launchers at a firing position as part of Russian military drill intended to …
China, Russia and North Korea are building up their nuclear arsenals at a frightening pace to intimidate Washington. At the same time, America has little diplomatic leverage to strike new, traditional arms control deals to limit that nuclear expansion.
That was the assessment of Robert Joseph, former U.S. special envoy for nuclear nonproliferation, who said during an online forum hosted by The Washington Times Foundation on Tuesday that America must recognize the reality that “the Cold War concept of arms control is at an end.”
Specifically, he argued during his appearance on “The Washington Brief” that the Trump administration has hardly any of the leverage the U.S. enjoyed when it struck previous nuclear nonproliferation deals with Russia, such as the 1992 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty or the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces. Adversaries today, he said, view nuclear weapons as a “zero-sum game.” They believe nuclear arms are crucial to deterring the U.S. from intervening in a broader European or Pacific conflict. In principle, Mr. Joseph said, adversaries are likely to oppose any deal they view as helping America’s geopolitical or national security goals in any way.
President Trump’s push for a comprehensive, 21st-century missile shield, or “Golden Dome,” is a crucial part of putting America back in the driver’s seat. That missile defense system, he said, could send a strong message to adversaries that any potential attack on the U.S. involving nuclear-armed ballistic or even hypersonic missiles would largely fail.
From a defense perspective, the Golden Dome seems to be the central part of the U.S. long-term strategy. On the diplomatic front, however, Mr. Joseph warned that America’s options are severely limited.
“Put simply, we don’t have the leverage that we did when we negotiated INF and START,” he said, referring to the two landmark arms control deals between the U.S. and Russia. INF is no longer in effect, and START is set to expire next year.
“The prospects for negotiations with Beijing and Pyongyang are even bleaker in my opinion,” Mr. Joseph said. “Both have flatly said they are not interested. … Again I ask, where’s the leverage to force a change?”
Each of those countries has embarked on major nuclear expansion in recent years. Mr. Joseph said the administration must view the nuclear expansion of each member of the “axis of authoritarians” — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — in concert.
“We need to think about these threats not in isolation but as a collective threat of authoritarian adversaries,” said Mr. Joseph, who also served as undersecretary of state for arms control and international security during the George W. Bush administration.
“What we need in all cases is imagination and resolve to fashion and implement innovative approaches and new tools to deal with the negative threat of the axis of authoritarianism,” he said.
China’s nuclear buildup includes the dual, nuclear-conventional armed DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, along with a host of other weapons. It is also building nuclear-capable bombers. Russia has in its stockpile nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles and its nuclear-armed autonomous Poseidon torpedos, among other capabilities.
North Korea has its own nuclear capabilities despite decades of U.S. policy aimed at preventing it from becoming a nuclear state.
Iran is nearing a similar status. According to most estimates, Tehran could produce enough enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb in a matter of days.
Mr. Trump has given Iran until May to strike a diplomatic deal to limit its nuclear program. Otherwise, U.S. military strikes appear to be a possibility.
“They are and they will continue to be a threshold nuclear weapons state,” former CIA official Joseph DeTrani, who moderated Tuesday’s event and writes a regular column for The Washington Times, said of Iran.
In each instance, the growing nuclear stockpiles appear designed to directly impact U.S. decision-making. For China, Mr. Joseph said, the nuclear expansion is aimed at deterring America from intervening if China invades Taiwan. During President Biden’s term, Russia seemed to use the threat of nuclear escalation to persuade Washington to slow-walk some aspects of its military support for Ukraine.
North Korea, Mr. Joseph said, believes its nuclear weapons could keep the U.S. from intervening in a war on the Korean Peninsula.
“It’s about deterring the United States if war does break out on the peninsula and the North employs its chemical and biological weapons to avoid defeat in a conventional conflict,” he said.
Mr. Trump has declared his desire to use direct diplomacy in the nuclear arena and expressed openness to striking a deal with Tehran. During his first term, he met in person several times with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un in an effort to strike an agreement, though the outreach did not result in a deal.
On Russia, Alexandre Mansourov, a professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies, said the current Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks could directly shape whether Moscow opens the door to any nonproliferation talks with the Trump administration.
“If the ceasefire talks collapse, that would close the window of opportunity to discuss other contentious issues with Russia as well,” he said at the forum. “So why would they want to put any curbs on their nuclear arsenal if that’s the case, again, if we don’t reach a ceasefire agreement?”
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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