Diplomatic path to de-occupation: Can territories seized by Russia be returned?
hromadske
Following peace negotiations, Ukraine will likely have to abandon the idea of reclaiming occupied territories by force and instead focus on a diplomatic approach to de-occupation. History offers several examples of territorial disputes resolved without military intervention. But can this experience be borrowed and applied not only to Ukraine’s occupied territories but also to lands held by Russia in other countries? hromadske explores.
German model for Moldova and Georgia
Bacho Korchilava, a journalist and former press attaché at Georgia’s embassy in Ukraine, believes the most effective way to reclaim Abkhazia and South Ossetia is to replicate the German reunification model of West Germany (FRG) and East Germany (GDR).
He argues that reintegration must primarily hinge on economic growth.
"Georgia, like Ukraine, won’t give up on its occupied territories. But we need to understand that resolving this issue isn’t a matter of three, five, or even ten years," Korchilava emphasized.
Bacho Korchilavahromadske
In his view, economic strength is the key to recovering lost territories.
"When West Germany reunited Germany, it was prepared: a strong economy, a developed military, robust diplomacy. So, if Georgia wants its territories back, it needs to build a strong state with a competitive economy," the expert noted.
Korchilava stresses that reintegrating occupied territories isn’t just about reclaiming land—it’s about a state’s readiness to ensure their development.
"We have to realize that tomorrow, these territories could be returned to us, and we must be ready. They’re currently neglected, economically weak, lacking skilled workers, and plagued by constant problems. If Georgia isn’t prepared for reintegration, it’ll simply inherit a massive burden," he explained.
Oazu Nantoi, a member of Moldova’s parliament, also believes resolving the Transnistria conflict is impossible without strengthening the country’s economy. He points out that the self-proclaimed "Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic" has long relied on free Russian gas, corruption schemes, and smuggling. Now, with those resources curtailed, the region faces economic collapse.
Oazu Nantoihromadske
"Since January 1, Gazprom officially halted gas supplies to the left bank. That marks the end of the ‘free ride’ that’s been in place since at least 2006. The result is a severe crisis for Transnistria’s economy," Nantoi said.
According to the lawmaker, Transnistria lacks a viable economic foundation. The unrecognized entity’s budget deficit in 2024 stands at 60.4%, historically offset by Russian subsidies. Meanwhile, many businesses in the region are registered in Chișinău as Moldovan companies, allowing them to trade with the European Union and profit without paying taxes into Moldova’s budget.
"It was only since December 1, 2024, that we have forced them to pay customs duties," Nantoi added.
Beyond economics, he underscores the need for legal reforms and anti-corruption efforts within Moldova’s state institutions, noting that Transnistrian regime figures have long influenced Moldovan officials, complicating unification.
"Before integrating Transnistria, we need to establish an effective legal and economic system in Moldova. That will set an example for residents of the occupied territory," the lawmaker stressed.
Nantoi also highlighted the fear and repressive tactics employed by Transnistria’s authorities. Despite this, he noted that over 356,000 residents of the occupied territory have acquired Moldovan citizenship, signaling their genuine interest in rejoining Moldova.
"People in Transnistria are seeking better opportunities. Many work on Moldova’s right bank because prospects are far better here. Our task, then, is to make Moldova even stronger, and the reintegration issue will resolve itself," Nantoi concluded.
Diplomacy as a path to the liberation of Chechnya
Islam Belokiev, a former spokesperson for the Sheikh Mansur Chechen battalion fighting alongside Ukraine, doesn’t rule out a diplomatic path to Chechnya’s liberation but says it requires significant Western economic and political pressure on Russia.
"A diplomatic option is possible, but real leverage is essential. If the oppressed side lacks strength—military or at least political—it’s unlikely such issues can be resolved through diplomacy alone," Belokiev said.
Islam Belokievhromadske
The occupiers must face overwhelming pressure they can’t withstand. Otherwise, we’re left with the illusion that Russia’s conscience will awaken and it’ll leave on its own. But that doesn’t happen, especially with countries whose way of life and existence are built on oppressing the weak.Islam Belokiev, former representative of the Sheikh Mansur Chechen battalion
Belokiev believes liberating Ukraine’s occupied territories requires a victorious army, a nuclear shield, and support from a pan-European allied force.
"But with Ichkeria, it’s far more complex because it lacks such allies and, crucially, international recognition," the former battalion spokesperson said.
Still, he suggests the situation could shift if Europeans personally grasp the threats of the "Russian world": "Then it’s not out of the question that the EU might recognize Ichkeria, giving Chechens more diplomatic leverage. Otherwise, liberation is only possible if Russia collapses or a large-scale uprising erupts in the North Caucasus. Even then, political, military, economic, and informational support from third countries would be needed."
What about Ukraine?
Analyzing potential peaceful paths to reclaiming territories, Ukrainian historian Sergii Hromenko cites the Israeli-Egyptian model of the Sinai Peninsula’s return.
"A diplomatic route to recovering occupied territories does exist. For instance, Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in exchange for a peace deal and security guarantees. But the problem is that Ukraine didn’t attack Russia—Russia attacked Ukraine. That changes the rules," Hromenko explained.
He says that even if Moscow theoretically agreed to return some territories in exchange for concessions from Kyiv, it would pose greater risks for Ukraine.
"Should we consider a scenario where Ukraine regains its lands but gives up NATO membership or demilitarizes certain regions? Would that guarantee security with an aggressive neighbor next door? There’s no easy answer," the historian argues.
Hromenko also examines Germany’s reunification, which he deems more relevant to Ukraine.
"East Germany was effectively occupied by the Soviet Union but later united with West Germany after the communist regime’s collapse. The catch is that the Soviet Union didn’t withdraw its troops out of goodwill—it was due to its own collapse. So, the main factor that could force Russia to retreat is a crisis and disintegration of its power," he stated.
In his view, without a regime collapse in Moscow, a diplomatic path to reclaiming Ukraine’s territories is nearly impossible.
"Russia will only retreat when its internal problems become critical. If the Kremlin faces another period of turmoil, infighting, or economic disaster, only then can we hope for a diplomatic resolution. As long as stability persists there, they won’t voluntarily return those territories," Hromenko added.
I don’t want Ukrainian readers to fall into the delusion that a diplomatic path exists—it could stretch out over 40 years.Sergii Gromenko, Ukrainian historian
Sergii Hromenko and Volodymyr Ohryzkohromadske
In contrast, Volodymyr Ohryzko, Ukraine’s former foreign minister, believes the issue of reclaiming occupied territories could resolve much faster, especially given a potential change in Russia’s leadership.
"Decades? I don’t think that’s even a possibility. Putin won’t last decades, even physically. And a change of power in the Kremlin traditionally means a weakening of that power. Even Putin’s physical removal would spell very serious problems for the federal center," the diplomat noted.
He added that a leadership shift in Russia could lead to disintegration: "When trouble starts there, regions quickly figure out who’ll bolt first. That’ll trigger a disintegration process, which Russia will inevitably face—there’s no doubt about it."
Still, Ohryzko stresses that Ukraine’s situation is unique, and no historical precedent for territorial recovery can be applied directly. He outlines three potential solutions that could materialize even before a power shift in Russia.
The first is global recognition of the occupied territories as part of Ukraine and its legitimate right to strike them: "Ukraine’s Defense Forces can absolutely strike Russian operational troops on Ukrainian territory. That includes Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and other areas still under Russian occupation. That’s your first step toward restoring territorial integrity."
The second option is economic sanctions paired with military action to force Putin to retreat.
The third is creating a new European security system: "Ukraine, uniting with its European neighbors, partners, and allies—not all of them, of course—could establish a new European security framework that clearly tells Putin any future attempts to seize territory will meet a massive response."
"These are options already on the table. Which will be chosen? Maybe all at once, maybe one by one, or some other way—but they exist. I think a combination of these factors will gradually allow us to push Russia back to the territories it currently holds as a cohesive state," Ohryzko concluded.
Author: Svitlana Hudkova
This article was created with the support of RLNE.