Never mind the open-topped bus, it’s time to deal in the bottom line if you’re black and white.
If the Carabao Cup is for show, the Champions League is for dough. And where Newcastle United hope to be going, this (unexpected) chance to dine with Europe’s elite again cannot be passed up.
“A game changer in terms of revenue,” was how Eddie Howe described it on Tuesday, after admitting he was unsure exactly how his players would react to a return to the serious business after the unalloyed glory of Wembley.
The Magpies might have scratched a 70-year itch by finally winning silverware – and enjoyed a solid fortnight of partying as a result – but inside St James’ Park they know it is a top-five place which will reset them on an upward trajectory after 12 months of plateauing. It is an opportunity they dare not pass up for so many reasons.
For a start the impact on their position with relation to the Premier League‘s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – of which more later – could be “dramatic”. But from a recruitment perspective it is seen as “win-win” for Newcastle, who have drawn up an ambitious transfer plan that assumes they’re playing Champions League from September onwards.
Keep Alexander Isak? It’s looking that way anyway given Newcastle’s £150m price tag has caused Arsenal and Liverpool to pivot to alternative targets but if they’re in the Champions League it becomes – according to one Premier League recruitment source – “a non-issue” this close season.
Attracting their top targets? We know that many of those on Newcastle’s A-list have enough interest to make Champions League football a non-negotiable. Unless they can put it at the top of their sales pitch, they can probably wave goodbye to any hope of landing the “transformative” names they covet.
Finally it would give them some serious financial muscle in an era when revenue is king in football.
LONDON, ENGLAND - MARCH 16: Alexander Isak of Newcastle United applauds the fans after he is substituted during the Carabao Cup Final between Liverpool and Newcastle United at Wembley Stadium on March 16, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
Alexander Isak looks set to stay at Newcastle (Photo: Getty)
Of course there are certain extra expenses to consider in a Champions League campaign – bonuses have been inserted in virtually every Newcastle player’s contract and there is a need for a beefed up squad to cope with the extra game, which raises the possibility of Callum Wilson and Jamaal Lascelles getting short contract extensions – but overall it’s a huge net positive.
“They can budget for an extra £40-50m, minimum,” football finance expert Kieran Maguire says.
These are not insignificant sums. The total prize pot for the Champions League is £2.4bn. By contrast the Conference League – the competition Newcastle qualified for thanks to their Carabao Cup win – has a total fund of £285m.
“It’s night and day between the two competitions and it is so much more lucrative for Newcastle than last time because the format has been expanded,” Maguire says.
“You’re in the Conference League for the joy of going into European football and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. Newcastle fans, if they end up in the Conference League, will have a whale of a time.
“But you’re in the Champions League for the money, it’s 2million Euros per victory, 700,000 Euros for a draw and you’re now guaranteed four home fixtures including two against ‘A-grade’ opponents and therefore if you’re Newcastle’s hospitality team you can name your own prices for the boxes.
“If it’s the third-best team in Denmark it will sell out – the weekend proved that – but it will be more modest if it’s Conference League.”
From a PSR perspective, football finance experts say, the Champions League would add – at a conservative estimate – the possibility of spending an extra £70m on players. That’s because the transfer spend on incoming deals is divided by the length of their contract for PSR purposes.
Professor Rob Wilson, a football finance expert and programme director at the University Campus of Football Business, explains: “Because of the way amortisation charges work, you’re talking about an 80million to 100million Euro transfer being possible if you’re in the Champions League.
“It is probably closer to 20million to 30million Euros if you’re in the Conference League.”