A climate model based on the community is crucial in climate change adaptation because it can show where best to build and which hazardous areas should be avoided, an expert said Wednesday.
A climate model is a computer simulation of Earth's climate system, which can recreate the past climate or predict the future climate, the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science said.
Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay, executive director of the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute, said “These climate models for the region are very important, and they need to be downscaled as well to the community level. Downscaling is very important. Science is very important" because a community adaptive to climate change can lessen the damage in its area.
“When the hazard strikes in the future, [when] big floods happen in the future, critical infrastructure and development are out of arm's reach. If they are out of harm's way, we don’t have any disasters to discuss,” he added.
Lagmay also said these climate models must be “downscaled,” “processed,” and “translated” into hazards so that they can be used when a certain area is being developed.
“When there’s development and economic progress happening for a community unhampered by disaster, the growth and development will benefit the community, and it will give them a better chance to attain the sustainable development goals,” he added.
Lagmay presented the Manifestation of Climate Change Hard Impacts in Greater Manila in the UN International Migration’s Climate Mobility Innovation Lab Co-Creation Hub Brown Bag Session.
He also explained that reclamation projects continue because “real property is valuable.”
“The consideration, the decisions, sometimes are not just based on science. It is also based on business models, so we have to create a balance,” Lagmay said, nothing developments in a certain area should be consulted with the locals.
“The stakeholders would define, the people in the community would define what their vision is for their community in the future and let them decide what they wish to undertake,” Lagmay said.
There are two pillars to climate: Mitigation, which is when the intent is to stop climate change, and adaptation, which is when we prepare for climate change.
According to Lagmay, climate adaptation allows communities to adapt to climate change through preparedness.
“Adaptation means we’re trying to plan communities and trying to anticipate the adverse impact of climate change through planning. Come the time it happens, we are prepared, and we can address all of those concerns,” he said.
Effects of climate change is already being felt in the Philippines. According to the 2025 Climate Risk Index, the Philippines ranks as the 10th most affected country by extreme weather events in the last 30 years.
According to the report, the Philippines has endured a total of 372 extreme weather events that caused $34B in losses throughout given 30-year period.
In 2024, the country experienced a parade of six typhoons within a month, with four of them thrashing the country all at the same time. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council, infra damages from the typhoons hit at least P469M.
Meanwhile, PAGASA said zero or one tropical cyclone is expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) in April.
The state weather bureau also observed that a large part of the country experienced above-normal rainfall from March 1 to March 31, while several areas also had near-normal rainfall even without typhoons entering PAR.
It said the rains were brought about by various weather systems, including the northeast monsoon (Amihan), easterlies, and the shear line. — LA, GMA Integrated News