Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling European Union funds is sending shockwaves through French and European politics. The ruling condemns her to four years in prison, with two suspended, and bars her from running for public office for five years. As the latter part of the sentence was immediately enforced, even though Le Pen has already announced her intention to appeal, the leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) party is barred from the 2027 presidential race. Only an accelerated appeal that would clear her name in the next 18 months—an unlikely scenario—would allow her to participate.
This decision will reverberate across French politics and influence the battle of narratives over the state of democracy in the West. It will further legitimise the already widespread claim—promoted by the US administration—that elites have taken over Western political systems and have fundamentally skewed it against the will of ordinary people.
Populist forces on both sides of the Atlantic have plenty to gain. From Viktor Orban and Matteo Salvini to Geert Wilders and Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, far-right politicians have rushed to support Marine Le Pen publicly and denounce what they see as a “violation of democratic norms”. As the son of the US president, Donald Trump Jr., posted on X, this shows, in their view, that “JD Vance was right about everything”, referring to the US vice-president’s speech at the Munich Security Conference that suggested Europe was silencing populist opposition.
The way to 2027
In France, the conviction reinforces the Le Pen’s party’s claims of judicial bias and persecution by the political mainstream. The party doubled down on this narrative after the 2024 legislative election, when tactical voting for other parties prevented the RN from securing the premiership, even though party won 37% of the popular vote in the second round, much ahead of the centrist and leftist coalitions. For RN, Le Pen’s ruling only strengthens their argument that the system is rigged against them, a narrative that could galvanise their base heading into 2027—or earlier. It also provides a great opportunity to lock arms with the global Trump-inspired movement.
However, despite the advantage of firing up supporters, the sentencing poses major challenges to the party. It contradicts Le Pen’s 13-year-old strategy to normalise the National Rally from the extremist roots of her father’s National Front into a regular hard-right party ready to govern. The “strategy of the cravate”, which consists of adopting the sartorial and behavioral customs of mainstream parties to legitimise the RN’s capacity to govern, would be deeply damaged by expected outcries of manipulation over the verdict.
In addition, the RN seems to have poorly anticipated the outcome of the trial. Le Pen has not fully prepared her legacy and succession, and the party may not be able to survive without her popularity. Jordan Bardella, RN’s leader, will likely take over as the party’s presidential candidate. Bardella has sought to establish his own brand, but his authority largely stemmed from Le Pen’s knighting, and could be questioned as her future remains uncertain. Despite Bardella’s rising popularity—60% of RN voters recently said they preferred him over Le Pen—the hole left by Le Pen will likely lead to a scramble of factional infighting within the party that could weaken them.
And Le Pen is not about to give up. On Monday night, in a prime-time interview on French TV, she said she was combative and not in the mood to bow down before a judicial decision that she considers contrary to the rule of law and a denial of democracy. She has repeatedly and convincingly referred to the millions of voters who have been deprived of their preferred candidate by the decision of a single first instance judge. If Le Pen remains a prospective candidate suspended to an appeal decision, it could prevent the party from moving on. As such, RN faces its own risks of fragmentation and isn’t bound to only take benefit of the turmoil that the March 31st judicial verdict provokes.
Beyond France
Outside the country, the court ruling plays directly into the growing transatlantic debate among the far right over democracy and political legitimacy.
Just as the Trumpists condemned judicial intervention in Romania’s annulled elections, they are now seizing on Le Pen’s conviction to argue that centrist elites in Europe are using legal mechanisms to suppress popular opposition
In the United States, where figures like J.D. Vance and Trump have repeatedly denounced “democracy by judges,” the verdict is already being framed as further evidence of the EU’s overreach and the continent’s democratic decay. Just as the Trumpists condemned judicial intervention in Romania’s annulled elections, they are now seizing on Le Pen’s conviction to argue that centrist elites in Europe are using legal mechanisms to suppress popular opposition. On both sides of the Atlantic, this could further polarise narratives between the far right and the political mainstream on the nature of democratic governance.
The broader European consequences of this decision will be significant. The immediate impact may be a surge in support for anti-establishment movements across Europe—and the weakening of their trust in democracy. (Yanis Varoufakis, the far-left former finance minister of Greece, has already suggested that situation in France and in Turkey—where opposition leader was recently jailed—wasn’t very different, describing the reaction of “liberals” as hypocrisy.)
As with Trump’s legal troubles in the US, Le Pen’s conviction could serve as a rallying cry for the far right and populist forces across the West, who will now be able to claim with greater legitimacy that the system is actively working to silence them—even if in both cases, the law was broken. Despite being, for the most part, nationalist parties, they are increasingly forming an interconnected ideology: a decision in one country can help bolster a figure in another because these parties portray the “elites” as a cross-border enemy.
An uphill battle
Ultimately, this verdict is unlikely to mark the end of Le Pen’s political career. She is one of the most popular political figure in France and could return stronger in the future—either through a political comeback after 2027, or even a pardon from Bardella if he wins the presidency.
The extent of the shock to French politics is yet to be evaluated. One early poll showed that just 35% of the French felt “shocked” about the ruling. But it also showed deep divisions among French society concerning the interpretation of this event. Just 54% believe Le Pen was treated like any other litigant, while 46% think she was treated particularly harshly for political reasons. And while 54% think that the ruling proves the French democracy is working fine, most of the rest (43%) hold the opposite view. Uneasiness about the verdict was palatable on the right of the political spectrum. Even prime minister Francois Bayrou said he felt “troubled” by it.
Centrist political forces in France and beyond will face the difficult task of navigating Le Pen’s conviction. While defending the impartiality of the justice system and the rule of law, they also have to acknowledge it may add fuel to the Trumpist fire. Paradoxically, despite the leader of RN’s disqualification from the French presidential race—the loose internazionale of anti-European forces may now have a stronger chance to undermine both the EU and European liberal democracy.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.