Chelsea aim to retain their top-four spot in a London derby. We look ahead to Thursday’s Premier League game at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction and preview.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights
Chelsea’s chances of a win against Tottenham are rated at 56.4% by the Opta supercomputer.
Tottenham have won just one of the previous 12 Premier League meetings with the Blues.
Nicolas Jackson has four Premier League goals against Spurs, his joint-most against any opponent.
Chelsea began Matchday 30 in fourth place in the Premier League table but could well be seventh by the time this game gets underway. Fortunately for Enzo Maresca, his side are strong at home, Tottenham have been poor on the road, and the Blues dominate the head-to-head record.
The Blues start the matchday with the joint-longest run of home wins in the division. They have won their previous four Premier League matches at Stamford Bridge, the last two with a clean sheet.
Granted, those were against Southampton and Leicester, who look doomed to make an immediate return to the Championship. But with 12 and 10 away losses respectively, those clubs are the only two to suffer more Premier League defeats on the road than Tottenham this season (eight). You have to go back to 2008-09 to find the last season in which Spurs lost more away games in the competition (11).
No side has earned fewer points in Premier League London derbies this season than Tottenham’s total of 10 either (which is tied with Brentford). One crumb of comfort for the visitors is that they have a stronger record than Chelsea in a mini-league of the established big six clubs this season, with nine points to the Blues’ bottom-of-the-table tally of five.
But even allowing for that and the powerful motivation which comes with any derby, it’s fair to question what Tottenham are really playing for here.
The Opta supercomputer gave Spurs just a 2.0% chance of a top-half finish at the start of the matchday. Their only realistic hope of European football next season is to win the UEFA Europa League, a competition in which they are third favourites with an 18.4% chance of going all the way, according to the supercomputer.
If Tottenham are to collect three points here, they may need Son Heung-min to break a peculiar record, one which his form this season suggests he might.
He has faced Chelsea 17 times in the Premier League without setting up a goal, the most times he’s faced a side in the competition without registering an assist. However, he already has nine to his name in 2024-25, meaning one more will equal Christian Eriksen’s club record of four Premier League campaigns featuring double digits for assists.
It remains to be seen who will accompany Son in the Tottenham front line. Ange Postecoglou has confirmed that nobody picked up any new injuries over the international break but this game will still come too soon for Kevin Danso, Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison.
Chelsea have slightly better news, with Nicolas Jackson, Noni Madueke and Cole Palmer all available to play here. Jackson hasn’t featured since the 2-1 win over West Ham in the first week of February and his return will be welcomed by Maresca considering his record in matches of this nature.
The Senegal international has scored four times against Tottenham in the Premier League, with West Ham the only other club against whom he has been so productive. Among players with at least 20 goals in the competition, only Manuel Lanzini (48.1%) has scored a higher proportion of their total in London derbies than Jackson (47.8%).
But whoever plays, the relative records of both teams is stacked heavily in favour of the Blues. This season they have won five and drawn one of their six home games against clubs that start the matchday in the bottom half of the table, which is where Tottenham find themselves.
The visitors can cling to memories of their 4-0 win at Manchester City in November as evidence of their ability to succeed in a difficult away game. The problem for Postecoglou is that his side have lost all six other matches against current top-half teams.
Add to the mix that Chelsea have won more Premier League games (36) and scored more Premier League goals (120) against Tottenham than they have versus any other opponent, and an upset in this match looks all-but impossible.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Tottenham have a miserable record against Chelsea, both under their current manager and long beforehand.
Chelsea are the only side Ange Postecoglou has faced in the Premier League without earning a single point. Should his side lose here, the Australian will collect the unwanted record of becoming the first Tottenham manager to lose his first four league games against the Blues.
Postecoglou can hope the fact Spurs last lost more consecutive league games against Chelsea between January 2000 and March 2002 (a run of six) means that they are perhaps due a result. But with the west Londoners winning nine and losing just one of the last 12 league clashes, the omens are not good at all for the visitors.
The league meeting between these sides back in December at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium ended in a 4-3 win for Chelsea, despite Spurs holding a 2-0 lead inside 17 minutes thanks to goals from Dominic Solanke and Kulusevski.
Jadon Sancho pulled one back in the first half, before a Cole Palmer brace either side of an Enzo Fernández strike saw Chelsea pull away. Son netted an added-time consolation for the home side, but it failed to change the outcome of the game.
Tottenham 3-4 Chelsea
Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is expecting Chelsea’s dominance of this derby to continue on Thursday evening.
Its 10,000 simulations of the match resulted in a home win 56.4% of the time. There is a fairly even split between the other options, with a 22.7% likelihood of an away win and a 20.9% chance of the match ending all-square when Craig Pawson blows the full-time whistle.
Tottenham’s terrible record at Stamford Bridge looks set to continue for another season.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction Opta
Chelsea vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Chelsea vs Tottenham Predicted Lineup
Chelsea vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday night at Stamford Bridge, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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