A lot of madness was certainly on display last night, as our 76ers-Spurs over bet piled up more points than any other basketball game on the slate. We’ll try to shoot for one more total victory on the hardwood before it’s off to baseball for the next seven months.
This one emanates from Golden 1 Center, where the Sacramento Kings will host the Milwaukee Bucks in a nationally televised affair on NBA TV. Both teams are jockeying for postseason positioning in their respective conferences, marking this a crucial matchup with much to play for.
The Bucks are firmly in a playoff spot and a handful of games above the play-in picture. At the same time, they’re also trying to attain home-court advantage for at least one series, as they sit in the No. 5 seed, just a game back of division rival Indiana Pacers.
Meanwhile, over in the West, the Kings are fighting for dear life just trying to keep ahold of one of the play-in slots. They currently occupy the No. 9 position, but the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks each sit two games behind them. Sacramento just needs to fend off one of those teams to move on.
The Kings are also battling without arguably the best player in the organization, Domantas Sabonis, who is sidelined with a right ankle sprain. Conversely, Milwaukee will be without one of its stars as well, with Damian Lillard set to don street clothes this evening.
When fully healthy, the Kings consistently play in some of the highest scoring contests on any given night. They’re one of only five teams in the NBA to sit inside the top 10 in both most points scored, and most points allowed. Sacramento is pouring in 116.6 points per night on average while yielding 115.8 points to the opponent.
Even with Sabonis inactive, they can still maintain such a tendency. The former Gonzaga product has either missed or exited early 10 of 11 games this month, and in those bouts, the Kings averaged 116.1 points and gave up 116.9. If tonight’s final score is even around there, we’ll be in great shape for the over with the total being 223.
But can the Bucks operate close to normal fashion without Damian Lillard?
So long as Giannis Antetokounmpo suits up – and all indications are that he’s playing tonight – the Bucks can compete and score on anyone. The Greek Freak is enjoying another MVP-caliber campaign, registering 30.2 points, 11.9 rebounds and six assists on a remarkable 59.9% shooting from the field.
There are fine role players surrounding Antetokounmpo and one to take note of on this night is third-year man Ryan Rollins, who will likely step into Lillard’s stead once again. He’s played alright this year when supplied bigger minutes.
Despite Lillard being down, the Bucks still possess one of the more fun teams to have in an over wager and we even may have a little room for error given that this number isn’t as high as it normally would be.
Pick: Over 223 (-105, Caesars)
NBA Betting Record: 22-16, +2.29 units
Over/Unders: 8-5
Everything Else: 14-11
Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.
Follow me @MattZylbert on Twitter/X for potentially more picks added there.