Presented by Lloyds Banking Group
London Playbook
By EMILIO CASALICCHIO
with NOAH KEATE
Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.
WEDNESDAY CHEAT SHEET
— Ministers are scrambling to reassure businesses as the hours tick down to the big Donald Trump tariffs show.
— A U.K. deal with the U.S. to end the tariffs could take weeks or months, but there could be a mini-FTA based on previous Conservative negotiations.
— Rachel Reeves revealed she has spoken to the EU about responding to the tariffs. And there are fears for Northern Ireland.
— Attorney General Richard Hermer went a little bit Suella Braverman.
— MPs are marking their calendars for the next assisted death hurdles.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Right now, over 1.5 million households across the country are on waiting lists for social housing. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion of funding to the sector since 2018. Find out what’s ahead**
TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
CAN’T WAIT TO FEEL LIBERATED: It’s a mere four hours to go until the U.K. and the rest of the globe is “liberated” via crushing trade tariffs at the small and orange hands of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Love the smell of roses and trade barriers in the evening: As Playbook noted this morning, the U.S. president is expected to unveil his plan — which MAGA land insists will rebalance U.S. trade terms with the world — flanked by cabinet members in a rose garden press conference at 9 p.m. U.K. time.
Which means … the government and its Whitehall machine doesn’t have too much longer to wait before getting at least some detail to work with — and to beg for the U.K. to be shielded from the onslaught. “We do not want to see trade barriers go up,” Chancellor Rachel Reeves told the Treasury committee this afternoon in a last minute plea. “We want to see trade barriers fall.”
No falling expected: Government officials remain unsure whether the full tariffs plan will be laid out tonight, and even whether — despite the promises from team Trump — all the changes will take effect overnight. The logistics of implementing such a vast change at borders would be almost impossible, see.
Which could mean … the U.K. has a little more time to negotiate a carve-out from the global tariffs plan before being sucked into the MAGA pain cave. Although it would need quite a substantial grace period, seeing as those in government reckon it will be weeks if not months before an agreement can be finalized.
The reason for that is … the deal under discussion is quite wide-ranging and not focused on avoiding tariffs or digital sectors alone, Playbook PM hears. Those in the know note it covers numerous industries and could lead to even better access for British businesses to the American market than is the case right now. The Conservatives negotiated around half a deal with Trump back in 2020, and the Labour government has picked up where their predecessors left off with the same lead negotiator (Graham Floater — no laughing at the back) at the helm to boot.
What that negotiation looked like: Playbook PM spoke to former Trade Minister Greg Hands about where those negotiations ended up. “It was quite advanced,” he said. “What people think would have been the obstacles were not the obstacles” — i.e. food standards and the NHS — although Hands said it was assumed there would be an agricultural tariffs agreement in the end. Instead, the tough talks were on things like the liabilities of tech firms. And progress was made in the talks on visas including business visas and recognizing professional qualifications.
Head start: “We had the bones of the deal from the past time around,” one person with knowledge of the discussions said. “We were able to dust off big chunks of that.” Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer during PMQs to take up the shell of a deal the Tories negotiated. She doesn’t know how right she was.
But it’s being stressed: On the additions to that deal, the U.K. has not conceded to all U.S. demands in sheer terror and desperation (despite the gags in this newsletter last night.) “We could have a trade deal tomorrow if we roll over and give everything away,” the same person said. “But we’re not in that game.”
That of course means: The British industrial sectors that are exposed to the U.S. tariffs will suffer for some time. Whitehall has modeled more than 100 different scenarios across the board, including the 3-D chess impact of goods from other nations that were destined for the U.S. but could flood into the U.K. instead. The trade remedies office is poised to take action if needed, with the scenario-crunching being used to draw up options to protect the relevant sectors and retaliate if needed — although the line from government continues to be no knee-jerk reactions.
Not much chance of knee-jerking here: The trade remedies office is one slow-moving mutha. The fastest countermeasures the dumping police have put in place so far took ten months, on a specific kind of plastic from the U.S. “There’s potential for a six-eight month window,” a spokesperson told my U.K. Trade Pro colleague Graham Lanktree. Which means months of pain, although the spokesperson noted retrospective tariffs can be applied, too.
Desperate to avoid all tariffs: At PMQs, Starmer said a trade war with the U.S. would be “in no-one’s interests” and insisted ongoing negotiations (the ones that have not resulted in a deal so far) are “constructive.” He dismissed a suggestion from Lib Dem boss Ed Davey there should be “coalition of the willing” among trade allies to line up against the Trump tariffs, arguing siding with other nations over the U.S. was a “false choice.”
Although … the U.K. is in talks with trading partners about how to respond, Reeves told the Treasury committee. She said she spoke to European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis this afternoon, to chat about what a sensible response would be. “Let’s see how other countries and other trading blocs respond,” she said about possible U.K. retaliation, although she added: “We are not going to rush into action to get a quick headline.”
And the home nations too: Starmer also confirmed this morning the government is in discussion with the Stormont leadership too — because under its hybrid post-Brexit status Northern Ireland could be clobbered by EU retaliation to the U.S. Full explainer from our trade experts here.
In the meantime: Ministers are doing their best to reassure worried businesses the world is not about to end, with ministers and officials briefing sectors and helping them formulate responses. Trade Minister Douglas Alexander held a call with business reps this afternoon, while Reeves and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds held a breakfast with some of the biggest exporters this morning. Reeves made clear to the committee she had listened to businesses that do not want the government to risk the “prize” of the possible U.S. trade deal.
Here comes Johnny: Speaking of Reynolds, expectations are that he will issue a statement once the initial U.S. announcement has been made and somewhat digested. He is also expected be on the media round in tomorrow morning and to deliver a statement to the Commons
Not much gloss to put on this: The government is not pretending the next 24 hours, weeks or even months dealing with these tariffs will be a walk in the park. “We all recognise this is going to be a difficult period,” Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson told Times Radio this morning. Those who know Trump reckon the U.K. is following the right path, at least. His former foreign affairs adviser Fiona Hill told Andrew Marr on LBC (coming at 6 p.m.) that “the keep calm course is the best approach.”
But it’s not all doom and gloom, because … the business department announced a new £10 billion investment from Singaporean bank OCBC. We’re saved!
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
RACH AGAINST THE MPs: Chancellor Rachel Reeves insisted she did not make welfare cuts with the sole motive of replicating the budget headroom she had in October. Reeves made spending cuts to match the £9.9 billion headroom she had at the previous budget to within two decimal places — leading the independent IFS to criticize her for announcing last-minute extra welfare reforms just to match the previous numbers. But Reeves told the Treasury committee this afternoon the closeness in the numbers was “accident rather than design,” insisting: “I don’t have those superpowers.”
Elsewhere in the hearing: Reeves refused to confirm she will give the OBR boss a second term … dismissed calls for fewer OBR forecasts … and (shock) would not tell MPs if she will raise tax at the next budget.
And of course … she defended the spring statement and her management of the public finances despite the criticism from the opposition. During PMQs Kemi Badenoch attacked the budget and bill rises this month for the public — opening herself up to obvious attacks from Labour about Liz Truss etc. “I don’t agree with making people poorer,” Badenoch insisted to jeering from the Labour benches. Newbie MP Sarah Coombes shook her head and mouthed: “Outrageous.”
Tough spot for LOTO TBF: Starmer said Badenoch was in the “absurd position” of complaining about the budget but not being able to explain how the Tories would raise more cash for public services instead. He said the Conservatives were peddling a “fantasy figure” about how much Labour changes will cost households. Our Noah Keate reckons the PM claimed the win. His PMQs scorecard is here.
PASS-AG: Lightning rod Attorney General Richard Hermer went a little bit Suella Braverman this afternoon when he told the human rights committee the ECHR might be being misinterpreted in immigration cases. He said a number of decisions not to deport people based on the famed Article 8 right to private and family life were “capable of suggesting that it is not being applied properly or appropriately.” He said it was right the government is reviewing the issue.
But but but: Hermer also launched an attack on the Telegraph — which has been going full Paul Marshall on some of this stuff. “There is clearly a lot of information, misinformation, that is being whipped up in the context of asylum and immigration,” he said — noting in particular the case about the kid who was allowed to stay because he likes U.K. chicken nuggets was misreported.
SOME THINGS NEVER CHAGOS: Foreign Minister Stephen Doughty refused to put a timeline on finalizing the controversial Chagos Islands deal with Mauritius and avoided spelling out how much cash the U.S. will contribute to continue leasing the Diego Garcia base there. “While it is in everybody’s interest to progress the deal quickly, we have never put an exact date on it and we do not intend to do so now,” he said in a Commons urgent question this afternoon.
RAYNER HER PARADE: The Electoral Commission is examining Labour’s spending on Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner’s general election battle bus after the Tories claimed 24 Labour MPs may have broken the law by not declaring a visit from the bus in their election expenses. The BBC has the rundown.
Right of reply: Labour spokesperson said: “All necessary declarations have been made in line with the rules, including with regards to the ‘Change’ battle bus.”
NOT SO PLANE SAILING: Heathrow bosses were warned about the resilience of substations powering the airport before one caught fire and forced the vital transit hub to close last month, my POLITICO colleague Abby Wallace writes in. “I’d actually warned Heathrow of concerns that we had with regard to the substations, and my concern was resilience,” Nigel Wicking, chief executive of Heathrow Airline Operators’ Committee, told MPs at the transport committee this morning.
The deets: Wicking said he first raised concerns with a director at Heathrow on March 15, less than a week before the fire broke out, after instances of cable theft around the substation. “I’d raised the point that I wanted to understand better the overall resilience of the airport,” he said. Heathrow said afterwards that the thefts related to a different and more minor substation.
FUJIT NEVER ENDS: Crap-Post Office software firm Fujitsu banked another £3.8 million government contract with the Home Office in Feb, Private Eye noted, despite the firm pledging not to bid for new government contracts while Horizon victims remain in limbo
More contracts: The mag also notes the government’s communities department handed advisers McKinsey a £12 million contract for consultant work, despite secretary of state Angela Rayner railing in opposition against the Tories having “splurged billions on consultants to tell them how to do their job.”
COMING ATTRACTIONS: Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has done an exclusive interview about grooming gangs with Charlie Peters from GB News, which will be aired from 7 p.m. tonight.
Not the Kemi line: Telegraph Pol Ed Ben Riley Smith bagged a recording of Conservative MP Esther McVey telling pals the Conservatives should let Reform win the Runcorn by-election next month as part of a wider electoral pact with Nigel Farage. Labour is — of course — loving it.
Speaking of Reform: PolHome’s Tom Scotson has details on a new think tank set up to support the insurgent right-wingers. The party denies any involvement but the bloke running the think tank was working for Reform until November.
UNLUCKY, LADS: Football fans banned from attending matches due to being cocks have been barred from travelling to the U.S. for the world cup this summer.
HAPPENING NOW: Ministers Dan Jarvis and Rushanara Ali are discussing the security of candidates, MPs and elections at the Speaker’s Conference. Watch it here.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: The U.K. will work with allies and social media platforms to tackle people smuggling adverts online to deter small boat crossings. The Indy has the deets.
STILL NOT DEAD ON ARRIVAL
DEATH CREEPS EVER CLOSER: MPs marked Apr. 25 in their calendars after Kim Leadbeater confirmed her assisted death bill will return to the Commons that Friday for its report stage. Speaking at a press conference attended by Playbook PM’s Noah Keate this morning, Leadbeater insisted the legislation has improved since it was voted through with a majority of 55 at second reading, as she tries to keep as many on side as possible for the next hurdles.
In the office where it happened: Bill backers gathered in former Deputy Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell’s grand office for the press conference, where briefing packs lauding the legislation were handed out. “It’s been an extremely intense process,” Leadbeater said about the committee stage that just ended.
Winning hearts and minds: Each speaker insisted there was no reason for concern about the bill. As a former doctor, Tory MP Neil Shastri-Hurst said he had “failed patients” by not giving them a “good death,” with the legislation providing a “more holistic” approach. Former Director of Public Prosecutions Max Hill said the bill is “a once in a lifetime opportunity” to change the law.
What’s the hold-up? Leadbeater insisted the new four-year timeline to implement the proposed regime is to allow training to guard against coercive control. She did not comment on whether there are even enough professionals in the U.K. to cope with the potential demand.
The dissenters: Bill opponents weren’t too pleased about how the press conference was framed. While Leadbeater said around a quarter of the 600 amendments put forward in committee were accepted, the majority were in her name. “Her presentation of the process as being amended by a range of people, reflecting a range of different views, does not really reflect what happened,” one sceptic told Noah.
And there’s more: Labour’s Jess Asato co-authored a House op-ed saying the bill still won’t do enough to protect domestic abuse victims, while fellow Labour skeptic Anna Dixon told Noah big questions about implementation remain.
Diary clash: Noah asked whether Leadbeater was worried her bill might have a low turnout at report stage, due to landing on the Friday before the local elections. She said MPs have two weeks over the Easter recess to knock on doors. “It’s one day,” Leadbeater said. “This is so important to many people on different sides … that I think they will ensure they’re in parliament.” She said it was “difficult to say” whether third reading would happen on the same day, as it depends on the number of amendments to be voted on (POLITICO’s Dan Bloom reported this morning it would likely be May 16).
BEYOND THE M25
IN SCOTLAND: Patrick Harvie confirmed he would step down as Scottish Greens’ co-leader this summer after 17 years in post. Harvie, who has been an MSP since 2003 and plans to stand again next year, served as active travel and tenants’ rights minister in the Scottish government during the Bute House Agreement between the SNP and Greens from 2021 to 2024. The Scottish Daily Express has a writeup.
Traveling south:STV News has an exclusive report about how a woman travels to England from Scotland every four days to access an abortion as the cut off for most cases in Scotland is 20 weeks of pregnancy compared to the U.K. wide law of 24 weeks. The figure comes despite the Scottish government saying repeatedly it will end the practice.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a military expansion further into Gaza to capture “extensive territory” and turn it into Israeli-controlled buffer zones. My colleague Ketrin Jochecová has further details.
TO HUNGARY: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives in Budapest this evening as Hungary plans to defy the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant against him for war crimes. As an ICC signatory, Hungary is required to arrest Netanyahu but Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will instead roll out the red carpet for him. The Times has the rundown.
IN THE BIG APPLE: A federal judge permanently dismissed the criminal case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams, marking a remarkable turn of events for the embattled Democrat who was indicted on corruption charges last year. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Dale Ho prevents the Department of Justice from ever reopening the case. My Stateside colleagues have more.
Bigly if true: Speaking of the U.S., our well-connected colleague across the pond, Rachel Bade, hears Donald Trump has been telling his inner circle Elon Musk will be gone as a government adviser soon. Who’da thought that relationship might not work out?
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Tonight over, 164,000 children will go to bed in temporary accommodation. They will face real consequences over the course of their lives such as poorer health, lower wages and fewer opportunities. At Lloyds Banking Group, we are continuing to champion social housing and that’s why we have supported £19.5 billion in funding to the sector since 2018. We are going further – converting decommissioned data centers and former office sites into social housing, providing £200 million of funding for local projects, and working with the Government to unlock investment. Together with Crisis, we are calling for one million more homes at social rent over the next decade. Find out what's ahead.**
TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) has an exclusive report about children attending school but not classes and has words from Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson … BBC News at Six leads on a dispatch from inside Myanmar after last week’s devastating earthquake … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) focuses on U.S. President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on overseas goods and has interviews with Lib Dem leader Ed Davey and German MEP Anna Cavazzini.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Former Aston Martin CEO Andy Palmer (5.05 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Former Donald Trump adviser Stephen Moore (5.05 p.m.) … Confederation of British Industry Chief Executive Rain Newton-Smith (5.30 p.m.) … Bulgarian MEP Eva Maydell (5.50 p.m.) … the Mirror’s Mikey Smith and the Sun on Sunday’s Kate Ferguson(both 6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Alliance for American Manufacturing President Scott Paul.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former Chief U.K. Trade Negotiator Crawford Falconer (5.30 p.m.) … Coalition for a Prosperous America Industry Analyst Kenneth Rapoza (6.30 p.m.) … former Kamala Harris Battleground Director Dan Kanninen (6.45 p.m.).
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): BBC Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Crossbench peer and broadcaster Alan Sugar … former U.S. National Security Council Senior Director for Russia and Europe Fiona Hill … Lib Dem MP Layla Moran … UK Steel Trade and Economics Policy Manager Chrysa Glystra.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers … former Labour adviser Matthew Laza.
Iain Dale (LBC, 7 p.m.): The European Centre for International Political Economy’s David Henig (7 p.m.) … former Department for International Trade adviser Shanker Singham (9.30 p.m.).
GBN Tonight (GB News, 7 p.m.): Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch … former Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle … More in Common’s Luke Tryl.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Commission for Countering Extremism Commissioner Robin Simcox … Labour peer Helena Kennedy … former International Trade Secretary Liam Fox.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Labour MP Polly Billington … Tory peer Stewart Jackson … author Hashi Mohamed … the FT’s Lucy Fisher.
Peston (9 p.m. on Twitter, 10.45 p.m. on ITV): Ed Davey … Labour MP Dawn Butler … former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland … economist Mariana Mazzucato.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Sophia Gaston.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Alfie Tobutt.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Journo Julia Langdon and academic Scott Lucas … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Broadcaster Steve Richards and the Daily Mail’s Claire Ellicott.
WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT
GOOD, CLEAN FUN: The Labour in Energy and Industry group and Chris Grayling are hosting a panel event at 6 p.m. on championing clean power.
PROBS NOT GONNA BE BOOZE AT THIS ONE: Keir Starmer is hosting an Eid reception in Downing Street.
TOMORROW’S WORLD
HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The housing committee has a report out about kids in short-term accomodation.
ON THE DEFENSIVE: Foreign Secretary David Lammy joins NATO counterparts for a two-day meeting in Brussels.
BUILDER OR BLOCKER? Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is set to decide whether Luton Airport can expand.
IN THE COMMONS: MPs sit from 9.30 a.m. with culture, media and sport questions, before the business statement and backbench debates on digital platforms and sport in schools.
COURT CIRCULAR: It’s day three of the legal challenge against charging private schools VAT, which kicks off at 10.30 a.m.
ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government Permanent Secretary Sarah Healey faces the Public Accounts Committee about local government finance, from 10.45 a.m.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Cheeseburger with chive glaze, gem lettuce, beef tomato and coleslaw; pea, potato and spinach samosa with lentil dhal and kachumber salad; salmon fillet with butternut squash, sundried tomato and spinach quinoa and rocket oil … The Debate: Chicken katsu with lime rice and pickled ginger; spinach, ricotta and feta filo with pear, walnut and radicchio salad; lemon and pepper sea bream with green beans, capers, olives and potatoes … Terrace Cafeteria: Tuna loin with Mexican bean stew, avocado and lime yoghurt; veggie meatballs with wholemeal pasta; bacon and leek pie with mash and cider tarragon sauce … River Restaurant: Salmon en-croute with Lyonnaise potatoes, greens and lemon dill sauce; smoked paprika and marjoram pork chop with mustard mash, sauerkraut, smoked sausage and braised cabbage; veggie toad-in-the-hole with roast potatoes and veg.
SPOTTED: Gardener and broadcaster Alan Titchmarsh swapping his wellies for a jacket to attend PMQs as 5 Live presenter Matt Chorley’s special guest.
NEW-ISH GIG: DCMS mister Fiona Twycross is now a full-time Lords frontbencher with an expanded role covering gambling, heritage and libraries. To be fair she’s been putting the hours in at the despatch box already, fronting up for the government on the extra-slow-going football governance bill.
BRAVER THAN MOST: Shadow Communities Minister David Simmonds is running his third London Marathon later this month to raise money for Prostate Cancer UK.
NEW GIG: Former Stonehaven director Adam McNicholas is now a special advisor in Downing Street.
New gig ii: Tortoise wrong’un-hunter Cat Neilan will be Whitehall Editor at the new-look Observer when it launches this summer, she announced online.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Pages 10 and 11 of Private Eye … first listing Labour MPs who have criticized Chinese forced labor but last week voted with the government against an anti-slavery Lords amendment … then listing MPs and peers who received freebies from vested interests while promoting those same interests in parliament … and to top it all off, noting how Labour donor and now government whip Sonny Leong shifted ownership of his Whitehall contract-winning business (after the mag revealed the conflict of interests) to his wife! Leong has been contacted for comment.
Oh, and: The unnamed account in the Fence Magazine from a clinician working in an asylum hotel is well worth a read.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On April 2, 1783 William Cavendish-Bentinck became prime minister. He signed the deal that ended the American Revolutionary War before his government was toppled the following December, although he became prime minister again 26 years later. On the same date in 1982, the Falklands War between Britain and Argentina began, and on the same date in 2020 then-Health Secretary Matt Hancock set a target of 100,000 Covid tests par day by the end of the month. He met it by including 39,000 tests posted out to homes and testing centers with no guarantee of the timescale of their completion. Top fudging!
Mea culpa: The MoD was created under PM Alec Douglas-Home, not Harold Wilson. Thanks to former Commons clerk Eliot Wilson (no relation) for pointing out the error.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Andrew McDonald.
THANKS TO: My editor Fiona Maxwell, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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