It's rather early for player projections.
It might be better first to see the Bears practicing together at OTAs or even their veterans voluntary minicamp the week of April 21.
They wouldn't even have rookies chosen yet at that point but at least the veterans would be running plays together.
One can no sooner hold back this rolling tide of predictions and forecasts than expect football fans not to do their own first-round draft predictions. It's happening now whether anyone likes it or not.
Former Chicago radio sports talk show host and current Fox talk show panelist Danny Parkins started the Bears rush on FS1's Breakfast Ball with simple target points for Caleb Williams to hit this year.
.@DannyParkins gives his reasonable expectations for Caleb Williams with Ben Johnson next season ππ
Completion %: 65.0 plus
Pass TD: 30 plus
Pass Yds: 4,000 plus
Sacks: Below 50
Wins: 9 plus pic.twitter.com/Sls2VbIQRN
β Breakfast Ball (@BrkfstBallOnFS1) April 2, 2025
In a few ways, his targets seem unrealistic. In others, way too low.
The worst one by far is he has Williams' sacked total at "below 50."
Duh. It had better be below 50.
Try 40 or less. That was the midpoint in the league last year. There were 16 teams at 41 sacks allowed or more. If the Bears only aspire to the notion they need to be average on the offensive line as pass blockers, then less than 41must be the target, if not lower.
9 SACKS FOR THE PATRIOTS
THE BEARS HAVE FAILED CALEB WILLIAMS pic.twitter.com/pCo9vZVETz
β Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 10, 2024
The Bears gave up 68 last year, so it's easy to see why someone would target 50, but that 50 sacks last year would have been the seventh most allowed. That's not much of an improvement.
Considering the Bears have given up 50 or more sacks four straight years, the defeatism surrounding this pass-blocking number is also easy to understand. But 40 sacks or less is not hard to achieve for decent offensive lines.
Caleb Williams got sacked so hard the Stop Hate sticker on his helmet flew off.
β Tron Carter (@TastyChia) December 17, 2024
For crying out loud, they didn't even allow 40 sacks when Mike Glennon began the season as their starting quarterback in 2017. There were probably many Bears fans who would have liked to see Glennon sacked 40 times just for the fun of it, but the Bears never gave up 40 or more sacks for any season when John Fox was their coach and they didn't even have the slightest clue how to pass the ball or score points then.
Adding Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson to the offensive line better bring that total down. It's a lot of money to devote to better pass blocking. But getting this one number down, the sacks total, can do more to boost the Bears' passing attack than just about anything. Adding a running game will do something similar for the passing game.
People giving Caleb Williams grief for this have to consider the context.
Heβs a 22 year old rookie who just lost a 1 score game and getting sacked 7 times. The competitive juices are still flowing here.
Thoughts Chicago? #ChicagoBears #Bears #DaBears pic.twitter.com/XYM1feTklA
β Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) September 18, 2024
Sure, Williams tends to hold the ball long, right around 3.0 seconds. In year 2, with a better coaching staff and better blocking he should be able to get rid of it in time more often.
Jared Goff got rid of it in 2.68 seconds for the Lions last year, 10th fastest among starters, and that's too fast. But just lowering it to 2.8 seconds would do wonders for stopping the pass rush and getting the ball in the hands of playmakers.
I know Caleb is a rookie and there will be ups and downs. I donβt ever wanna see this again. Holding the ball for 7 seconds and taking a big sack on 2nd & 9 in OT is absolutely unacceptable. Gotta learn from this π»β¬οΈ pic.twitter.com/PD0yO8c2GZ
β JAYπ€π½π»β¬οΈ (@Directhim) November 25, 2024
Parkins' other numbers are nine-plus wins, 65% or better completion percentage, 30-plus touchdowns and 4,000-plus yards.
The mere thought of a Bears quarterback hitting 4,000 yards might be too much for most fans to endure. They'd pass out if it occurred. Something close would be fine. Breaking Erik Kramer's Bears record of 3,838 might be a better target. Jay Cutler never achieved this even though he annually flirted with it.
Smoking Jay Cutler is the greatest thing to ever happen to football. pic.twitter.com/gI2oIPStiM
β Lance (@itslance000) March 18, 2025
The 65% number is admirable and possible since Williams was at 62.5% last year but according to the average change for first-overall picks from Year 1 to Year 2, a number just below 65% is average. So 65% is a decent target number.
Hitting 30 touchdown passes is probably being a bit optimistic.
Chances are, the Chicago Bears will only be able to field an average NFL team (unless we hit on SEVERAL draft picks) after Caleb Williams demands to be the highest paid player in NFL history.
Are you confident that Caleb will develop into a quarterback who can carry an average⦠pic.twitter.com/zCw4S0YJpF
β 1920 BEARS (@1920bears) April 2, 2025
For one the running game is going to take on more of a role this year than last year. The running attack was wishful thinking in 2024 when they finished 28th in yards per attempt. When Johnson took over as offensive coordinator for the Lions, Jared Goff jumped forward from 19 touchdown passes to 29.
It was his seventh year. Williams being in Year 2 and with the need to get the offensive line together and playing as a unit early, there could be some a rough start for the running attack and when you're basing everything on play-action passing then the running attack needs to work.
chicago bears qb caleb williams
x
βtried our bestβ drake #DaBears π»π§‘
i hope it helps your wed move smoothly pic.twitter.com/A3fW8xdEhs
β Jimbo (@james_sweener) April 2, 2025
Something around 25 or 26 TD passes might be a more realistic target.
Ultimately the nine wins will be the sum total of their efforts to improve under Johnson and how they handle the competition in a tough division will be a major factor in making a playoff run.
Nine wins doesn't seem too excessive considering Matt Eberflus' team had only two wins less with a starting quarterback who couldn't finish games and an offensive line no better than last year's line.
Caleb Williams in the red zone last year:
π 268 Total Yards
π 13 Touchdowns
π 0 INTERCEPTIONS
π 96.8 Rating
Absolutely lethal π₯ pic.twitter.com/7Egb9j5QlD
β SleeperBears (@SleeperBears) March 31, 2025
X: BearsOnSI