The Timberwolves won a nationally-televised, double overtime thriller on Tuesday night in Denver to greatly improve their odds of finishing in the top six in the Western Conference and, thus, bypassing the play-in tournament.
While players passed the hero baton around over the final five minutes of regulation and overtime, Nickeil Alexander-Walker ultimately pushed Minnesota over the finish line by drilling two free throws with 0.1 seconds to play in the second overtime to give the Wolves the 140-139 victory on a night where reigning MVP Nikola Jokic tallied 61 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds.
Minnesota’s winning play was derived from chaos. The Timberwolves trailed by one when Anthony Edwards threw a bounce pass to no one. Russell Westbrook grabbed the loose ball and embarked on a 2-on-1 fast break with Christian Braun that ended in Westbrook getting a wide-open layup … that he bricked.
Alexander-Walker grabbed the rebound with nine ticks to play and Minnesota took off in transition. Edwards attacked the rim in a somewhat open floor. When Denver’s defense collapsed in the paint, the guard kicked to an open Alexander-Walker, who missed the three but was plowed into by Westbrook, who was scrambling to close out on the shooter.
Even though the actual jumper didn’t fall, it was the best look Minnesota generated across numerous such instances late in the game.
It required a broken floor to get it. And that’s a problem for Minnesota.
While the general late-game offense was solid for the Wolves on Tuesday against a Nuggets team that, frankly, doesn’t have the personnel to consistently cover Edwards or Julius Randle, the final possessions of the fourth quarter and the overtime periods were entirely uninspiring.
Edwards – who was brilliant for large segments down the stretch, scoring 24 points over the final 17 minutes of play – tallied a turnover in the final 30 seconds of the fourth quarter, the first overtime and the second overtime.
The Wolves inbounded the ball with 14 seconds left in the fourth quarter of a tied game, and Edwards dribbled up the floor with such nonchalance that by the time he was in a position where Denver wanted to double the guard, there were just four seconds left on the clock.
Edwards kicked to Randle, who took a highly-contested stepback three that sailed over the iron.
Minnesota had seven seconds to generate a good look at the end of the first overtime, but ended up in an eerily similar spot, with Edwards swinging the ball to Randle with four seconds remaining. This time, Randle passed it to Jaden McDaniels, who took one dribble inside the arc before firing off another contested jumper.
Another air ball.
Then, trailing by one with 18 seconds to play in the second overtime, Minnesota inbounded the ball to Edwards near the baseline corner. When the double came, Edwards and Randle had opposite ideas, as Randle moved one way while Edwards passed the ball in the opposite direction, clearing the way for the Russell Westbrook calamity.
All was well that ended well for Minnesota, but the end-of-game offensive incompetence continues to rear its head, and is a looming threat to short circuit any potential playoff run the Timberwolves hope to make this spring.
Minnesota 2 for 18 from the field in the final 10 seconds of games in which it is tied or trailing by three points or fewer. That’s the fifth-worst percentage in the NBA.
The two makes came in November. Randle hit the game-winning triple at the horn after shedding his defender to beat Phoenix. The other make was a McDaniels putback off a Mike Conley missed triple against Miami a week prior.
Since Randle’s winner against Phoenix, Minnesota is 0 for 14.
Edwards is 0 for 7 in such instances, while Randle and McDaniels are both now 1 for 3 on the season, and Alexander-Walker is 0 for 3.
As a team, Minnesota was 3 for 11 in such spots last season, and 2 for 9 in the 2022-23 campaign.
Those shots often come out of no action or movement. Wolves coach Chris Finch is often criticized for that – and certainly deserves a portion of the blame – but it’s also clear the execution of whatever Minnesota plans to do when it exits the huddle is poor. Everything Minnesota does late is a stark contrast to what Denver did when it needed key buckets and Jokic would get the ball, get to his spot and score with relative ease. For reference, Denver is 9 for 13 when tied or trailing by three or fewer in the final 10 seconds this season.
Minnesota’s process has to shift its results to improve. Perhaps that involves running Edwards in more off-ball actions that result in open looks for the guard or one of his teammates. Maybe it’s a more Julius Randle-centric approach to kick off possessions. Maybe Minnesota simply needs to execute the current plans at a higher rate.
Regardless, there was no reason for Minnesota to not get better last-second looks Tuesday against a Denver team that’s proven incapable of guarding the Wolves. Denver’s defensive approach was well known prior to the Wolves breaking the huddle. But Minnesota has repeatedly malfunctioned at the most inopportune times.
That has to change in short order.
Twenty-two of Minnesota’s games this season have been decided by three points or less – six more than any other team in the NBA. The Wolves have played a franchise-record seven one-point games. It’s logical to assume more of the same is on the way later this month when the postseason begins.
Will Minnesota have a better approach when it matters most?